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Same average return, different order, very different outcome when money is withdrawn
With no withdrawals, the order of returns doesn't change the ending value. Once money is being taken out each year, bad years early do more damage, because withdrawals lock in the losses before the recovery.
Two 30-year runs with the same average return can end with very different balances if one starts with a crash and the other ends with one.
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Systematic research · Not investment advice · Hypothetical unless marked Live · Data: Yahoo Finance (15-min delayed), SEC EDGAR, House Clerk · Important disclosures · Contact desk@coteau.app
Coteau 0.9 · Oct 21, 2026SURVYR. is independent and not affiliated with the SEC, the U.S. House, any fund, company or person shown, or any data provider.
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