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Volatility and the VIX

How big daily moves tend to be, and what the 'fear gauge' measures

Volatility

Volatility measures how widely prices swing. A stock with 40% annual volatility has typical daily moves around 2.5% (40% divided by the square root of about 252 trading days).

The VIX

The Cboe Volatility Index is calculated from S&P 500 option prices and estimates expected volatility over the next 30 days. It's often in the teens in calm periods and has spiked above 50 in crises.

Limits

The VIX describes expectations priced into options today. It isn't a forecast of direction and can stay high or low for long stretches.

Educational only. Describes ideas and how Coteau shows them; not a forecast and not advice.

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Systematic research · Not investment advice · Hypothetical unless marked Live · Data: Yahoo Finance (15-min delayed), SEC EDGAR, House Clerk · Important disclosures · Contact desk@coteau.app

Coteau 0.9 · Oct 21, 2026