SURVYR
13F ADDED +33% · ASHLER Institutional Filing Alert

Ashler Capital (Citadel Equities Arm) (Citadel Ashler L/S Equities) highlighted CEG in latest 13F

Citadel's Ashler Capital unit scaled nuclear/grid power (CEG, GEV) and industrial automation compounders

Ashler 13F › All Filing Alerts › SEC Filing ↗

CEG

Constellation Energy Corporation
$258.08
−$0.90 (0.35%)Oct 28 close
UtilitiesS&P 500 CompareTechnicals
Model valuationLeans expensiveDCF base $-47
1M3M6M1Y2Y
-41%-27%-13%+1%+15%Oct 2025Oct 2026Apr 202652w high $406.0452w low $228.63
CEGSPY
Wall St. Highest PT $399.00 (+54.6%) Wall St. Avg PT $338.81 (+31.3%)
$236$306$375$445$514POC $265Hi $399Avg $339
Underwater Drawdown %Max DD -40.8%Current -35.4%
0.0%-40.8%
Relative Strength vs SPY-47.6% vs SPYUnderperforming
+56%0%-56%
1W
−$12.66 (4.68%)
1M
−$2.35 (0.90%)
3M
+$0.53 (0.20%)
6M
−$38.00 (12.84%)
YTD
−$93.63 (26.62%)
1Y
−$124.73 (32.58%)

Chart

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Ratings & dials

1m · 5m · 15m · 1h · 4h · 1D

Analyst & Morningstar ratings

Consensus · Targets · Morningstar
Wall Street analyst consensus
SellHoldStrong Buy
Buy
25 analysts · mean score 1.56
1 = Strong Buy · 5 = Sell
Strong Buy1560%
Buy624%
Hold416%
Underperform00%
Sell00%
Wall Street consensus · as of Oct 21, 2026
Analyst price targets
Current price$258.08
Average target$338.07
+$79.99 (+31.0%) upsideaverage target vs current price
CurrentAverageMedian
Low$238.00
Median$341.00
High$395.00
12-month Wall Street target range · as of Oct 21, 2026
Recent analyst rating changes · 30
Reiterated
2026-10-27 · TD Cowen reiterated Buy on CEG
Reiterated
2026-10-27 · Barclays reiterated Overweight on CEG
Initiated
2026-10-22 · HSBC started covering CEG at Buy
Reiterated
2026-10-21 · Morgan Stanley reiterated Overweight on CEG
Initiated
2026-10-16 · CIBC started covering CEG at Outperformer
Reiterated
2026-10-06 · Bernstein reiterated Outperform on CEG
All analyst rating changes ›

Third-party ratings, not SURVYR.'s views.

Health check

Financial health
DistressGrey zoneSafe
Distress zone
Altman Z-score 1.5
Above 2.99 is the safe zone, below 1.81 the distress zone.
Quality
WeakAverageStrong
Average
Piotroski F-score 6 of 9
See the tests
  • ✓Positive net income
  • ✓Positive operating cash flow
  • ✗Return on assets improved
  • ✓Cash flow above net income
  • ✓Long-term debt / assets fell
  • ✗Current ratio improved
  • ✓No share dilution
  • ✗Gross margin improved
  • ✓Asset turnover improved

Computed by SURVYR. from the company's SEC filings (latest balance sheet Jun 30, 2026). Descriptive, not a forecast.

Key stats & company

Market value$91.8B
P/E (last 12 months)25.3
P/E (next 12 months, estimated)19.4
52-week range$228.63 – $406.04
Revenue growth (latest quarter vs a year ago)+23.0%
Dividend yield0.68%
Analyst consensusBuy (23)
Average analyst price target$338.81 (+31%)

What they do

Constellation Energy Corporation produces and sells energy products and services in the United States. The company operates through five segments: Mid-Atlantic, Midwest, New York, ERCOT, and Other Power Regions. It offers electricity, natural gas, energy-related products, and sustainable solutions.

Utilities · Utilities - Independent Power Producers
Valuation and fundamentals

Valuation & fundamentals

Bottom line
Leans expensive
Model read-out from the numbers below, not advice. Score -2 (DCF counts double).
▼DCF (base case)below the price by 118%
•Forward P/E vs sector19.4x vs median 17.5x
•Piotroski F-score6/9
▼Altman Z1.5 (distress)
•Net debt / EBITDA2.9x
▲Analyst target+31% (23 analysts)

Discounted cash flow

Bear
$-54
-121%
growth 7% · disc. 10.9% · term. 2.0%
Base
$-47
-118%
growth 12% · disc. 9.9% · term. 2.5%
Bull
$-37
-114%
growth 15% · disc. 8.9% · term. 3.0%

A DCF starts from trailing free cash flow, so it can overstate value if the last 12 months were unusually strong (or weak). Use the bear case or edit the starting cash flow if so.

Reverse DCFfor context, not a signal
Today's price assumes free cash flow grows about 49% a year for 10 years.
Implied
+49%/yr
FCF, last 3 yrs
n/a
FCF, last 5 yrs
n/a
Revenue, last 3 yrs
+1%/yr
Revenue, last 5 yrs
+8%/yr
Same inputs as the DCF above: trailing free cash flow 0.3B, 9.9% discount rate, 2.5% growth after year 10, net debt and today's share count. Actual growth rates are compound annual rates from SEC annual filings through FY2025; "n/a" means too little history or a negative starting year.
Edit assumptions · recalculates instantly
Your value per share–

Free cash flow = operating cash flow − capital spending, trailing 12 months (TTM to 2026-06-30). Growth default: average of 3-year revenue CAGR and latest revenue growth, capped at 30%. Years 6–10 fade linearly to terminal growth. Discount rate = 4.25% risk-free assumption + beta 1.13 × 5% equity premium, kept within 7–13%. Bear: lower growth, +1 pt discount, 2% terminal. Bull: higher growth, −1 pt, 3%.

Multiples vs Utilities

P/E (trailing)
sector median 20.9× · 91st pct
 25.3×
pricier
Forward P/E
sector median 17.5× · 85th pct
 19.4×
pricier
EV / EBITDA
sector median 12.9× · 69th pct
 14.0×
pricier
Price / sales
sector median 3.0× · 45th pct
 2.9×
cheaper
Price / book
sector median 2.0× · 93rd pct
 2.9×
pricier
FCF yield
sector median 0.1% · 51st pct
 0.3%
cheaper

Forward EPS $13.35 vs trailing $10.23 (+31% expected growth). Forward P/E uses analysts' next-12-month estimate.

Backlog (remaining performance obligations)

RPO
$11.9B
as of 2026-06-30
vs a year ago
+1287%
YoY
× TTM revenue
0.38×
coverage
24-09
24-12
25-03
25-06
25-09
25-12
26-03
26-06

Contracted revenue not yet recognized, from SEC filings (XBRL tag RevenueRemainingPerformanceObligation).

Quality & financial health

Gross margin
–
Operating margin
14.7%
FCF margin
1.0%
Net margin
11.1%
Return on equity
10.8%
Return on invested capital
5.6%
Net debt / EBITDA
2.9×
Current ratio
1.5×
Interest cover
5.9×
Cash conversion (OCF/NI)
1.2×
Piotroski F-score 6/9 · last two fiscal years
✓ Positive net income✓ Positive operating cash flow✗ Return on assets improved✓ Cash flow above net income✓ Long-term debt / assets fell✗ Current ratio improved✓ No share dilution✗ Gross margin improved✓ Asset turnover improved

Altman Z-score 1.5 (distress zone; above 3.0 = safe, below 1.8 = distress). Not meaningful for banks and insurers.

Analysts

Mean target
$339
+31%
Analysts
23
Buy
Range
$238–$399
low – high
● price · ◆ mean target

Annual history

FYRevenueNet incomeFree cash flow
2025$25.5B$2.3B$1.3B
2024$23.6B$3.7B$-5.0B
2023$24.9B$1.6B$-7.7B
2022$24.4B$-160.0M$-4.0B
2021$19.6B$-205.0M$-2.7B
2020$17.6B$589.0M$-1.2B

From the company's 10-K filings via SEC XBRL. 3-year revenue CAGR +1.5%.

For information only · Important disclosures

Grades vs sector

Momentum
3rd percentile in sector
F
12-1 return: -32.2%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Growth
97th percentile in sector
A+
Revenue growth (YoY): +23.0%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Value
11th percentile in sector
D-
Forward E/P: 4.9% · EBITDA/EV: 6.6%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Profitability
61st percentile in sector
B-
Profit margin: +11.1% · Return on equity: +15.1%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Revisions
Not enough data yet
–
EPS estimate change, 30 days (current FY): –
30-day change in analysts' current-year EPS estimate; graded across covered stocks.

Systematic Models

Held by 2 of 7 live models: SURVYR. Physical AI Grid & Power, SURVYR. Long Book.

SURVYR. Physical AI Grid & Power
9.0% of the book · Nuclear & Baseload Power (30%) sleeve · ranked 1 of 160
 HeldSURVYR. Long Book
4.3% of the book · Core sleeve
 HeldQuality Growth
Outside this model's universe or screens
 Momentum Top 15
ranked 427 of 499 · 12-month momentum -16.0%
 Momentum Blend
Not in the current book
 New Highs Growth
Outside this model's universe or screens
 SURVYR. Barbell Momentum & T-Bill Shield
Outside this model's universe or screens
Why it's in the SURVYR. Physical AI Grid & Power #1 of 160

Qualified on 9.0% max cap, largest US merchant nuclear fleet + Microsoft/hyperscale baseload PPAs. Ranked 1st of 160 at the 2026-10-01 rebalance.

What would knock it out: Drops out if it falls outside the top 14 at the next rebalance (Oct 30).

Why it's in the SURVYR. Long Book

Picked for this research portfolio at the Oct 21, 2026 close (Core group, Energy & BTM power).

What would knock it out: Weights are fixed and there is no rebalance rule. Any change would be dated and shown here.

Earnings & events

CEG earningsNext report in 11 days
Next report · quarter Sep 2026
Mon Nov 9, 2026Before the open
EPS consensus$3.84 range $3.50–$4.21
Revenue consensus$9.3B 7 analysts
Last 4 quarters · EPS vs estimate
Aug 6, 2026$2.55est $2.28+11.7%Above estimates
May 11, 2026$2.74est $2.60+5.3%Above estimates
Feb 24, 2026$2.30est $2.25+2.4%Above estimates
Nov 7, 2025$3.04est $3.12−2.6%Below estimates

In line = within 1% of the estimate.

Source: Yahoo Finance · report time: Nasdaq earnings calendar · refreshed 2026-10-27 18:04:10 ET
24-1125-0225-0525-0825-1126-0226-0526-080.003.12
EstimateActual (beat)Actual (miss)

Quarterly revenue

QuarterRevenueYoY
2026-06-30$7.5B+23.0%
2026-03-31$11.1B–
2025-12-31$6.1B–
2025-09-30$6.6B–
2025-06-30$6.1B–

Recent dividends

2026-08-18: $0.427 · 2026-05-15: $0.427 · 2026-03-09: $0.427 · 2025-11-17: $0.388 · 2025-08-18: $0.388 · 2025-05-16: $0.388 · 2025-03-07: $0.388 · 2024-11-15: $0.353

News & catalysts

More news
Nuclear Power Is Back, But Only a Few Stocks Have Customers Signed
Nasdaq · 1h ago
Is Vistra Stock Engineered To Make You Money?
Trefis · 6h ago
Trump DOE loans $5B to nuclear plants that will power data centers
TechCrunch · 16h ago
What Constellation Energy Stock's $5b DOE Loan Means For Shareholders
Simply Wall St. · Oct 28
AI Power Stocks Fell 7% to 13% in a Week While Exxon and Chevron Just Hit Record Highs. Here's Which Side I'd Rather Own.
Nasdaq · Oct 27

Research

Coteau Physical AI Grid & Power: rebalance of Oct 1, 2026Oct 26, 2026
Rating changes
Reiterated
2026-10-27 · TD Cowen reiterated Buy on CEG
Reiterated
2026-10-27 · Barclays reiterated Overweight on CEG
Initiated
2026-10-22 · HSBC started covering CEG at Buy
Reiterated
2026-10-21 · Morgan Stanley reiterated Overweight on CEG
Initiated
2026-10-16 · CIBC started covering CEG at Outperformer
Reiterated
2026-10-06 · Bernstein reiterated Outperform on CEG

Third-party analyst actions, not SURVYR.'s views. All rating changes

Insider trades
Crandall Roger W
Director · 2026-08-11
Buy
$417.9K
None
None · None
Sell
–
None
None · None
Sell
–
None
None · None
Sell
–

Stats refreshed 2026-10-27 18:04:10 ET from Yahoo Finance (yfinance). "–" means the data isn't available. Refresh now

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Systematic research · Not investment advice · Hypothetical unless marked Live · Data: Yahoo Finance (15-min delayed), SEC EDGAR, House Clerk · Important disclosures · Contact desk@coteau.app

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Coteau 0.9 · Oct 21, 2026