SURVYR
13F +6% · CITADEL Institutional Filing Alert

Citadel GQS (Global Quantitative Strategies) (Citadel Quantitative Research & Systematic) added to COST (+6% shares QoQ · 13.5% of 13F portfolio)

Form 13F-HR institutional holdings disclosure · Filed 2026-10-17

Citadel Holdings › All Filing Alerts › SEC Filing ↗

COST

Costco Wholesale Corporation
$992.13
−$13.03 (1.30%)Oct 27 close
Consumer StaplesS&P 500 CompareTechnicals
Model valuationLooks expensiveDCF base $560
1M3M6M1Y2Y
-9%-2%+5%+12%+19%Oct 2025Oct 2026Apr 202652w high $1,096.5052w low $844.06
COSTSPY
Wall St. Highest PT $1,315.00 (+32.5%) Wall St. Avg PT $1,066.06 (+7.5%)
$846$974$1,101$1,229$1,356POC $996Hi $1,315Avg $1,066
Underwater Drawdown %Max DD -18.2%Current -9.2%
0.0%-18.2%
Relative Strength vs SPY-6.2% vs SPYUnderperforming
+19%0%-19%
1W
−$2.48 (0.25%)
1M
+$69.36 (7.52%)
3M
+$25.55 (2.64%)
6M
+$1.15 (0.12%)
YTD
+$133.58 (15.56%)
1Y
+$67.67 (7.32%)

Chart

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Ratings & dials

1m · 5m · 15m · 1h · 4h · 1D

Analyst & Morningstar ratings

Consensus · Targets · Morningstar
Wall Street analyst consensus
SellHoldStrong Buy
Buy
36 analysts · mean score 1.95
1 = Strong Buy · 5 = Sell
Wall Street consensus
Analyst price targets
Current price$992.13
Average target$1,066.06
+$73.93 (+7.5%) upsideaverage target vs current price
CurrentAverageMedian
Low$770.00
Median$1,066.06
High$1,315.00
12-month Wall Street target range

Third-party ratings, not SURVYR.'s views.

Health check

Financial health
DistressGrey zoneSafe
Safe zone
Altman Z-score 9.3
Above 2.99 is the safe zone, below 1.81 the distress zone.
Quality
WeakAverageStrong
Average
Piotroski F-score 6 of 9
See the tests
  • ✓Positive net income
  • ✓Positive operating cash flow
  • ✗Return on assets improved
  • ✓Cash flow above net income
  • ✓Long-term debt / assets fell
  • ✓Current ratio improved
  • ✓No share dilution
  • ✗Gross margin improved
  • ✗Asset turnover improved

Computed by SURVYR. from the company's SEC filings (latest balance sheet Aug 30, 2026). Descriptive, not a forecast.

Key stats & company

Market value$440.7B
P/E (last 12 months)47.9
P/E (next 12 months, estimated)39.8
52-week range$844.06 – $1,096.50
Revenue growth (latest quarter vs a year ago)+11.1%
Dividend yield0.59%
Analyst consensusBuy (36)
Average analyst price target$1,066.06 (+7%)

What they do

Costco Wholesale Corporation engages in the operation of membership warehouses in the United States, Puerto Rico, Canada, Mexico, Japan, the United Kingdom, Korea, Australia, Taiwan, China, Spain, France, Sweden, Iceland, and New Zealand. It offers merchandise, including sundries, dry groceries, candies, coolers, freezers, liquor, and tobacco. The company is also involved in warehouse ancillary operations, which include gasoline, pharmacies.

Consumer Defensive · Discount Stores
Valuation and fundamentals

Valuation & fundamentals

Bottom line
Looks expensive
Model read-out from the numbers below, not advice. Score -3 (DCF counts double).
▼DCF (base case)below the price by 44%
▼Forward P/E vs sector39.8x vs median 14.9x
•Piotroski F-score6/9
▲Altman Z9.3 (safe)
▲Net debt / EBITDA-1.1x
•Analyst target+7% (36 analysts)

Discounted cash flow

Bear
$358
-64%
growth 4% · disc. 9.6% · term. 2.0%
Base
$560
-44%
growth 9% · disc. 8.6% · term. 2.5%
Bull
$853
-14%
growth 12% · disc. 7.6% · term. 3.0%

A DCF starts from trailing free cash flow, so it can overstate value if the last 12 months were unusually strong (or weak). Use the bear case or edit the starting cash flow if so.

Reverse DCFfor context, not a signal
Today's price assumes free cash flow grows about 16% a year for 10 years.
Implied
+16%/yr
FCF, last 3 yrs
+12%/yr
FCF, last 5 yrs
+12%/yr
Revenue, last 3 yrs
+8%/yr
Revenue, last 5 yrs
+9%/yr
Same inputs as the DCF above: trailing free cash flow 9.4B, 8.6% discount rate, 2.5% growth after year 10, net cash and today's share count. Actual growth rates are compound annual rates from SEC annual filings through FY2026; "n/a" means too little history or a negative starting year.
Edit assumptions · recalculates instantly
Your value per share–

Free cash flow = operating cash flow − capital spending, trailing 12 months (FY to 2026-08-30). Growth default: average of 3-year revenue CAGR and latest revenue growth, capped at 30%. Years 6–10 fade linearly to terminal growth. Discount rate = 4.25% risk-free assumption + beta 0.87 × 5% equity premium, kept within 7–13%. Bear: lower growth, +1 pt discount, 2% terminal. Bull: higher growth, −1 pt, 3%.

Multiples vs Consumer Staples

P/E (trailing)
sector median 23.9× · 86th pct
 47.9×
pricier
Forward P/E
sector median 14.9× · 97th pct
 39.8×
pricier
EV / EBITDA
sector median 12.1× · 96th pct
 29.6×
pricier
Price / sales
sector median 1.1× · 55th pct
 1.5×
pricier
Price / book
sector median 3.1× · 93rd pct
 12.3×
pricier
FCF yield
sector median 6.5% · 11th pct
 2.1%
pricier

Forward EPS $25.02 vs trailing $20.76 (+21% expected growth). Forward P/E uses analysts' next-12-month estimate.

Quality & financial health

Gross margin
5.4%
Operating margin
3.9%
FCF margin
3.1%
Net margin
3.0%
Return on equity
25.8%
Return on invested capital
42.5%
Net debt / EBITDA
-1.1×
Current ratio
1.1×
Interest cover
80.6×
Cash conversion (OCF/NI)
1.7×
Piotroski F-score 6/9 · last two fiscal years
✓ Positive net income✓ Positive operating cash flow✗ Return on assets improved✓ Cash flow above net income✓ Long-term debt / assets fell✓ Current ratio improved✓ No share dilution✗ Gross margin improved✗ Asset turnover improved

Altman Z-score 9.3 (safe zone; above 3.0 = safe, below 1.8 = distress). Not meaningful for banks and insurers.

Analysts

Mean target
$1,066
+7%
Analysts
36
Buy
Range
$770–$1,315
low – high
● price · ◆ mean target

Annual history

FYRevenueNet incomeFree cash flow
2026$303.2B$9.2B$9.4B
2025$275.2B$8.1B$7.8B
2024$254.5B$7.4B$6.6B
2023$242.3B$6.3B$6.7B
2022$227.0B$5.8B$3.5B
2021$195.9B$5.0B$5.4B

From the company's 10-K filings via SEC XBRL. 3-year revenue CAGR +7.8%.

For information only · Important disclosures

Grades vs sector

Momentum
50th percentile in sector
C+
12-1 return: +0.3%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Growth
81st percentile in sector
A-
Revenue growth (YoY): +11.1%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Value
3rd percentile in sector
F
Forward E/P: 2.5% · EBITDA/EV: 3.3%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Profitability
60th percentile in sector
B-
Profit margin: +3.0% · Return on equity: +28.4%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Revisions
Not enough data yet
–
EPS estimate change, 30 days (current FY): –
30-day change in analysts' current-year EPS estimate; graded across covered stocks.

Systematic Models

Not held by any of our 7 live models right now.

Quality Growth
ranked 52 of 360 · Composite (0-1) 0.7
 Momentum Top 15
ranked 311 of 499 · 12-month momentum 2.6%
 Momentum Blend
Not in the current book
 New Highs Growth
Outside this model's universe or screens
 SURVYR. Barbell Momentum & T-Bill Shield
Outside this model's universe or screens
 SURVYR. Physical AI Grid & Power
Outside this model's universe or screens
 SURVYR. Long Book
Not in the current book

Earnings & events

COST earningsNext report in 44 days
Next report
Thu Dec 10, 2026Time not confirmed
EPS consensus$4.91
Revenue consensus–
Last 4 quarters · EPS vs estimate
Sep 24, 2026$6.75est $6.53+3.4%Above estimates
May 28, 2026$4.93est $4.97−0.8%In line with estimates
Mar 5, 2026$4.58est $4.55+0.7%In line with estimates
Dec 11, 2025$4.50est $4.27+5.5%Above estimates

In line = within 1% of the estimate.

Source: Yahoo Finance · refreshed 2026-10-26 18:06:37 ET
24-1225-0325-0525-0925-1226-0326-0526-090.006.75
EstimateActual (beat)Actual (miss)

News & catalysts

More news
Target wants to win customers, but price cuts miss the mark
TheStreet · 5h ago
Sunshine Buns on a Roll With Major National Retail Expansion
PR Newswire · 7h ago
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing and Sonoco have been highlighted as Zacks Bull and Bear of the Day
Zacks · 8h ago
State Street Consumer Staples SPDR (XLP) Sells Walmart and Costco on Friday
GuruFocus.com · 9h ago
ETFs Are Net Sellers of Costco (COST) on Oct. 23
GuruFocus.com · 9h ago
Insider trades
Wilcox William Richard
Executive Vice President · 2026-10-13
Sell
$1.1M
Adamo Claudine
Executive Vice President · 2026-09-29
Sell
$2.0M
Frates Caton
Sr. Executive Vice President · 2026-09-29
Sell
$733.3K
None
None · None
Sell
–
None
None · None
Sell
–
None
None · None
Sell
–
None
None · None
Sell
–
None
None · None
Sell
–
None
None · None
Sell
–
None
None · None
Sell
–
None
None · None
Sell
–
None
None · None
Sell
–

Stats refreshed 2026-10-26 18:06:37 ET from Yahoo Finance (yfinance). "–" means the data isn't available. Refresh now

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Systematic research · Not investment advice · Hypothetical unless marked Live · Data: Yahoo Finance (15-min delayed), SEC EDGAR, House Clerk · Important disclosures · Contact desk@coteau.app

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Coteau 0.9 · Oct 21, 2026