SURVYR

ECPG

Encore Capital Group, Inc.
$99.46
−$0.18 (0.18%)Oct 27 close
FinancialsS&P 600 CompareTechnicals
Model valuationLeans undervaluedDCF base $108
1M3M6M1Y2Y
-9%+28%+65%+102%+139%Oct 2025Oct 2026Apr 202652w high $105.9852w low $40.52
ECPGSPY
Wall St. Highest PT $124.00 (+24.7%) Wall St. Avg PT $117.00 (+17.6%)
$41$63$84$106$128POC $99Hi $124Avg $117
Underwater Drawdown %Max DD -10.3%Current -5.8%
0.0%-10.3%
Relative Strength vs SPY+110.5% vs SPYOutperforming
+142%0%-142%
1W
−$3.70 (3.59%)
1M
+$1.05 (1.07%)
3M
+$3.56 (3.71%)
6M
+$15.39 (18.31%)
YTD
+$45.11 (83.00%)
1Y
+$55.06 (124.01%)

Chart

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Ratings & dials

1m · 5m · 15m · 1h · 4h · 1D

Analyst & Morningstar ratings

Consensus · Targets · Morningstar
Wall Street analyst consensus
SellHoldStrong Buy
Buy
4 analysts · mean score 1.75
1 = Strong Buy · 5 = Sell
Strong Buy250%
Buy125%
Hold125%
Underperform00%
Sell00%
Wall Street consensus · as of Oct 13, 2026
Analyst price targets
Current price$99.46
Average target$117.00
+$17.54 (+17.6%) upsideaverage target vs current price
CurrentAverageMedian
Low$112.00
Median$115.00
High$124.00
12-month Wall Street target range · as of Oct 13, 2026

Third-party ratings, not SURVYR.'s views.

Key stats & company

Market value$2.2B
P/E (last 12 months)7.8
P/E (next 12 months, estimated)7.7
52-week range$40.52 – $105.98
Revenue growth (latest quarter vs a year ago)+11.3%
Dividend yieldNo dividend
Analyst consensusBuy (3)
Average analyst price target$117.00 (+18%)

What they do

Encore Capital Group, Inc., a specialty finance company, provides debt recovery solutions and other related services for consumers across financial assets worldwide. The company purchases portfolios of defaulted consumer receivables at discounts to face value, as well as manages them by working with individuals as they repay their obligations and works toward financial recovery.

Financial Services · Credit Services
Valuation and fundamentals

Valuation & fundamentals

Bottom line
Leans undervalued
Model read-out from the numbers below, not advice. Score +2 (DCF counts double).
•DCF (base case)above the price by 8%
▲Forward P/E vs sector7.7x vs median 10.5x
•Piotroski F-score6/9
▲Net debt / EBITDA-0.1x
▲Analyst target+18% (3 analysts)

Discounted cash flow

Bear
$72
-27%
growth 5% · disc. 11.8% · term. 2.0%
Base
$108
+8%
growth 10% · disc. 10.8% · term. 2.5%
Bull
$152
+53%
growth 13% · disc. 9.8% · term. 3.0%

A DCF starts from trailing free cash flow, so it can overstate value if the last 12 months were unusually strong (or weak). Use the bear case or edit the starting cash flow if so.

Reverse DCFfor context, not a signal
Not meaningful for consumer finance: for banks, insurers and lenders, cash moving through loans and deposits swamps "free cash flow". Book value and earnings are better guides.
Edit assumptions · recalculates instantly
Your value per share–

Free cash flow = operating cash flow − capital spending, trailing 12 months (TTM to 2026-06-30). Growth default: average of 3-year revenue CAGR and latest revenue growth, capped at 30%. Years 6–10 fade linearly to terminal growth. Discount rate = 4.25% risk-free assumption + beta 1.31 × 5% equity premium, kept within 7–13%. Bear: lower growth, +1 pt discount, 2% terminal. Bull: higher growth, −1 pt, 3%.

Multiples vs Financials

P/E (trailing)
sector median 13.2× · 6th pct
 7.8×
cheaper
Forward P/E
sector median 10.5× · 15th pct
 7.7×
cheaper
EV / EBITDA
sector median 11.0× · 0th pct
 2.8×
cheaper
Price / sales
sector median 3.0× · 19th pct
 1.2×
cheaper
Price / book
sector median 1.6× · 66th pct
 2.2×
pricier
FCF yield
sector median 8.0% · 30th pct
 5.7%
pricier

Forward EPS $13.36 vs trailing $13.17 (+1% expected growth). Forward P/E uses analysts' next-12-month estimate.

Quality & financial health

Gross margin
–
Operating margin
37.7%
FCF margin
6.6%
Net margin
15.9%
Return on equity
30.5%
Return on invested capital
60.9%
Net debt / EBITDA
-0.1×
Current ratio
–
Interest cover
2.4×
Cash conversion (OCF/NI)
0.5×
Piotroski F-score 6/9 · last two fiscal years
✓ Positive net income✓ Positive operating cash flow✓ Return on assets improved✗ Cash flow above net income✓ Long-term debt / assets fell✗ Current ratio improved✓ No share dilution✗ Gross margin improved✓ Asset turnover improved

Analysts

Mean target
$117
+18%
Analysts
3
Buy
Range
$112–$124
low – high
● price · ◆ mean target

Annual history

FYRevenueNet incomeFree cash flow
2025$1.8B$256.8M$126.9M
2024$1.3B$-139.2M$127.2M
2023$1.2B$-206.5M$128.2M
2022$1.4B$194.6M$173.5M
2021$1.6B$350.8M$269.7M
2020$1.5B$211.8M$278.3M

From the company's 10-K filings via SEC XBRL. 3-year revenue CAGR +8.1%.

For information only · Important disclosures

Grades vs sector

Momentum
100th percentile in sector
A+
12-1 return: +127.1%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Growth
52nd percentile in sector
C+
Revenue growth (YoY): +11.3%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Value
76th percentile in sector
B+
Forward E/P: 13.1% · EBITDA/EV: 12.1%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Profitability
62nd percentile in sector
B-
Profit margin: +15.9% · Return on equity: +30.5%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Revisions
Not enough data yet
–
EPS estimate change, 30 days (current FY): –
30-day change in analysts' current-year EPS estimate; graded across covered stocks.

Systematic Models

Held by 1 of 7 live models: Momentum Blend.

Momentum Blend
3.9% of the book · Core sleeve
 HeldQuality Growth
Outside this model's universe or screens
 Momentum Top 15
Outside this model's universe or screens
 New Highs Growth
Outside this model's universe or screens
 SURVYR. Barbell Momentum & T-Bill Shield
Outside this model's universe or screens
 SURVYR. Physical AI Grid & Power
Outside this model's universe or screens
 SURVYR. Long Book
Not in the current book
Why it's in the Momentum Blend

In the Core sleeve: one of the steadiest 12-month uptrends in its universe (the model's smooth-trend momentum score).

What would knock it out: Re-checked at each monthly rebalance (next Oct 30); leaves if it no longer makes the Core selection. The latest preview keeps it.

Earnings & events

ECPG earningsNext report in 8 days
Next report · quarter Sep 2026
Wed Nov 4, 2026After the close
EPS consensus$3.08
Revenue consensus–
Last 4 quarters · EPS vs estimate
Aug 5, 2026$3.95est $2.62+50.8%Above estimates
May 6, 2026$3.91est $2.78+40.8%Above estimates
Feb 25, 2026$3.48est $1.75+98.9%Above estimates
Nov 5, 2025$3.18est $1.59+100.6%Above estimates

In line = within 1% of the estimate.

Source: Yahoo Finance · report time: Nasdaq earnings calendar · refreshed 2026-10-26 18:05:46 ET
24-1125-0225-0525-0825-1126-0226-0526-08-4.263.95
EstimateActual (beat)Actual (miss)

News & catalysts

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Insider trades
None
None · None
Sell
–
None
None · None
Sell
–

Stats refreshed 2026-10-26 18:05:46 ET from Yahoo Finance (yfinance). "–" means the data isn't available. Refresh now

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Systematic research · Not investment advice · Hypothetical unless marked Live · Data: Yahoo Finance (15-min delayed), SEC EDGAR, House Clerk · Important disclosures · Contact desk@coteau.app

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Coteau 0.9 · Oct 21, 2026