SURVYR

FICO

Fair Isaac Corporation
$691.74
−$16.33 (2.31%)Oct 27 close
Information TechnologyS&P 500 CompareTechnicals
Model valuationLooks undervaluedDCF base $1,122
1M3M6M1Y2Y
-65%-45%-25%-5%+15%Oct 2025Oct 2026Apr 202652w high $1,858.9152w low $586.05
FICOSPY
Wall St. Highest PT $1,675.00 (+142.1%) Wall St. Avg PT $936.52 (+35.4%)
$592$1,018$1,443$1,868$2,293POC $1,085Hi $1,675Avg $937
Underwater Drawdown %Max DD -67.9%Current -62.5%
0.0%-67.9%
Relative Strength vs SPY-72.5% vs SPYUnderperforming
+89%0%-89%
1W
−$107.99 (13.50%)
1M
−$171.35 (19.85%)
3M
−$644.48 (48.23%)
6M
−$318.76 (31.54%)
YTD
−$998.88 (59.08%)
1Y
−$993.35 (58.95%)

Chart

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Ratings & dials

1m · 5m · 15m · 1h · 4h · 1D

Analyst & Morningstar ratings

Consensus · Targets · Morningstar
Wall Street analyst consensus
SellHoldStrong Buy
Buy
21 analysts · mean score 2.33
1 = Strong Buy · 5 = Sell
Strong Buy733%
Buy419%
Hold838%
Underperform00%
Sell210%
Wall Street consensus · as of Oct 22, 2026
Analyst price targets
Current price$691.74
Average target$1,007.10
+$315.36 (+45.6%) upsideaverage target vs current price
CurrentAverageMedian
Low$490.00
Median$1,063.00
High$1,675.00
12-month Wall Street target range · as of Oct 21, 2026
Recent analyst rating changes · 30
Reiterated
2026-10-26 · UBS reiterated Neutral on FICO
Reiterated
2026-10-26 · BMO Capital reiterated Outperform on FICO
Reiterated
2026-10-26 · JP Morgan reiterated Neutral on FICO
Downgrade
2026-10-26 · Wells Fargo downgraded FICO from Overweight to Equal-Weight
Reiterated
2026-10-19 · Mizuho reiterated Outperform on FICO
Reiterated
2026-10-16 · RBC Capital reiterated Outperform on FICO
All analyst rating changes ›

Third-party ratings, not SURVYR.'s views.

Health check

Financial health
DistressGrey zoneSafe
Safe zone
Altman Z-score 8.3
Above 2.99 is the safe zone, below 1.81 the distress zone.
Quality
WeakAverageStrong
Average
Piotroski F-score 6 of 9
See the tests
  • ✓Positive net income
  • ✓Positive operating cash flow
  • ✓Return on assets improved
  • ✓Cash flow above net income
  • ✗Long-term debt / assets fell
  • ✗Current ratio improved
  • ✓No share dilution
  • ✗Gross margin improved
  • ✓Asset turnover improved

Computed by SURVYR. from the company's SEC filings (latest balance sheet Jun 30, 2026). Descriptive, not a forecast.

Key stats & company

Market value$14.9B
P/E (last 12 months)20.0
P/E (next 12 months, estimated)14.6
52-week range$586.05 – $1,858.91
Revenue growth (latest quarter vs a year ago)+25.7%
Dividend yieldNo dividend
Analyst consensusBuy (19)
Average analyst price target$936.52 (+35%)

What they do

Fair Isaac Corporation provides analytics software in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific. It operates through two segments, Scores and Software. The Scores segment offers business-to-business scoring solutions and services that give clients access to predictive credit and other scores that can be integrated into their transaction streams and decision-making processes.

Technology · Software - Application
Valuation and fundamentals

Valuation & fundamentals

Bottom line
Looks undervalued
Model read-out from the numbers below, not advice. Score +3 (DCF counts double).
▲DCF (base case)above the price by 62%
▲Forward P/E vs sector14.6x vs median 17.3x
•Piotroski F-score6/9
▲Altman Z8.3 (safe)
▼Net debt / EBITDA4.3x
▲Analyst target+35% (19 analysts)

Discounted cash flow

Bear
$533
-23%
growth 12% · disc. 12.0% · term. 2.0%
Base
$1,122
+62%
growth 19% · disc. 11.0% · term. 2.5%
Bull
$1,904
+175%
growth 24% · disc. 10.0% · term. 3.0%

A DCF starts from trailing free cash flow, so it can overstate value if the last 12 months were unusually strong (or weak). Use the bear case or edit the starting cash flow if so.

Reverse DCFfor context, not a signal
Today's price assumes free cash flow grows about 10% a year for 10 years.
Implied
+10%/yr
FCF, last 3 yrs
+15%/yr
FCF, last 5 yrs
+18%/yr
Revenue, last 3 yrs
+13%/yr
Revenue, last 5 yrs
+9%/yr
Same inputs as the DCF above: trailing free cash flow 1.0B, 11.0% discount rate, 2.5% growth after year 10, net debt and today's share count. Actual growth rates are compound annual rates from SEC annual filings through FY2025; "n/a" means too little history or a negative starting year.
Edit assumptions · recalculates instantly
Your value per share–

Free cash flow = operating cash flow − capital spending, trailing 12 months (TTM to 2026-06-30). Growth default: average of 3-year revenue CAGR and latest revenue growth, capped at 30%. Years 6–10 fade linearly to terminal growth. Discount rate = 4.25% risk-free assumption + beta 1.34 × 5% equity premium, kept within 7–13%. Bear: lower growth, +1 pt discount, 2% terminal. Bull: higher growth, −1 pt, 3%.

Multiples vs Information Technology

P/E (trailing)
sector median 35.4× · 17th pct
 20.0×
cheaper
Forward P/E
sector median 17.3× · 37th pct
 14.6×
cheaper
EV / EBITDA
sector median 20.3× · 35th pct
 16.2×
cheaper
Price / sales
sector median 4.8× · 60th pct
 6.2×
pricier
Price / book
sector median 5.2×
 –
FCF yield
sector median 3.6% · 79th pct
 6.7%
cheaper

Forward EPS $47.24 vs trailing $34.54 (+37% expected growth). Forward P/E uses analysts' next-12-month estimate.

Backlog (remaining performance obligations)

RPO
$680.4M
as of 2026-06-30
vs a year ago
+15%
YoY
× TTM revenue
0.28×
coverage
24-09
24-12
25-03
25-06
25-09
25-12
26-03
26-06

Contracted revenue not yet recognized, from SEC filings (XBRL tag RevenueRemainingPerformanceObligation).

Quality & financial health

Gross margin
85.1%
Operating margin
51.7%
FCF margin
41.6%
Net margin
34.1%
Return on equity
–
Return on invested capital
76.5%
Net debt / EBITDA
4.3×
Current ratio
1.2×
Interest cover
6.6×
Cash conversion (OCF/NI)
1.2×
Piotroski F-score 6/9 · last two fiscal years
✓ Positive net income✓ Positive operating cash flow✓ Return on assets improved✓ Cash flow above net income✗ Long-term debt / assets fell✗ Current ratio improved✓ No share dilution✗ Gross margin improved✓ Asset turnover improved

Altman Z-score 8.3 (safe zone; above 3.0 = safe, below 1.8 = distress). Not meaningful for banks and insurers.

Analysts

Mean target
$937
+35%
Analysts
19
Buy
Range
$490–$1,675
low – high
● price · ◆ mean target

Annual history

FYRevenueNet incomeFree cash flow
2025$2.0B$651.9M$769.9M
2024$1.7B$512.8M$624.1M
2023$1.5B$429.4M$464.7M
2022$1.4B$373.5M$503.4M
2021$1.3B$392.1M$416.2M
2020$1.3B$236.4M$342.9M

From the company's 10-K filings via SEC XBRL. 3-year revenue CAGR +13.1%.

For information only · Important disclosures

Grades vs sector

Momentum
0th percentile in sector
F
12-1 return: -64.3%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Growth
70th percentile in sector
B
Revenue growth (YoY): +25.7%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Value
58th percentile in sector
B-
Forward E/P: 6.4% · EBITDA/EV: 5.7%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Profitability
93rd percentile in sector
A
Profit margin: +34.1% · Return on equity: –
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Revisions
Not enough data yet
–
EPS estimate change, 30 days (current FY): –
30-day change in analysts' current-year EPS estimate; graded across covered stocks.

Systematic Models

Held by 1 of 7 live models: Quality Growth.

Quality Growth
6.7% of the book · ranked 8 of 360
 HeldMomentum Top 15
ranked 461 of 499 · 12-month momentum -23.3%
 Momentum Blend
Not in the current book
 New Highs Growth
Outside this model's universe or screens
 SURVYR. Barbell Momentum & T-Bill Shield
Outside this model's universe or screens
 SURVYR. Physical AI Grid & Power
Outside this model's universe or screens
 SURVYR. Long Book
Not in the current book
Why it's in the Quality Growth #8 of 360

Qualified on ROIC 79%, revenue +24% (TTM), growth accelerating +17.2 pts, latest quarter 2026-06-30. Ranked 8th of 360 at the 2026-09-30 rebalance.

What would knock it out: Drops out if it falls outside the top 15 at the next rebalance (Oct 30). In the latest preview (2026-10-27) it ranks 17th.

Earnings & events

FICO earningsNext report in 8 days
Next report · quarter Sep 2026
Wed Nov 4, 2026After the close
EPS consensus$10.77 range $10.15–$11.26
Revenue consensus$653.5M 16 analysts
Last 4 quarters · EPS vs estimate
Jul 29, 2026$12.18est $11.78+3.4%Above estimates
Apr 28, 2026$12.50est $10.97+13.9%Above estimates
Jan 28, 2026$7.33est $7.08+3.5%Above estimates
Nov 5, 2025$7.74est $7.36+5.2%Above estimates

In line = within 1% of the estimate.

Source: Yahoo Finance · report time: Nasdaq earnings calendar · refreshed 2026-10-27 18:04:01 ET
24-1125-0225-0425-0725-1126-0126-0426-070.0012.50
EstimateActual (beat)Actual (miss)

Quarterly revenue

QuarterRevenueYoY
2026-06-30$674.2M+25.7%
2026-03-31$691.7M–
2025-12-31$512.0M–
2025-09-30$515.8M–
2025-06-30$536.4M–

Recent dividends

2017-03-01: $0.020 · 2016-11-30: $0.020 · 2016-09-12: $0.020 · 2016-05-23: $0.020 · 2016-03-07: $0.020 · 2015-11-30: $0.020 · 2015-09-14: $0.020 · 2015-05-22: $0.020

News & catalysts

More news
Verisk Analytics (VRSK) vs. MCO and SPGI: Can a 40% Pullback Unlock Upside in a Data-Driven Insurance Analytics Leader?
Insider Monkey · Oct 22
How Much Of Fair Isaac’s Growth Comes From Its Mortgage Score Price?
Trefis · Oct 21

Research

Quality Growth: rebalance of Sep 30, 2026Oct 22, 2026
Rating changes
Reiterated
2026-10-26 · UBS reiterated Neutral on FICO
Reiterated
2026-10-26 · BMO Capital reiterated Outperform on FICO
Reiterated
2026-10-26 · JP Morgan reiterated Neutral on FICO
Downgrade
2026-10-26 · Wells Fargo downgraded FICO from Overweight to Equal-Weight
Reiterated
2026-10-19 · Mizuho reiterated Outperform on FICO
Reiterated
2026-10-16 · RBC Capital reiterated Outperform on FICO

Third-party analyst actions, not SURVYR.'s views. All rating changes

Insider trades
Manolis Eva
Director · 2026-07-29
Sell
$1.4M
None
None · None
Sell
–
None
None · None
Sell
–

Stats refreshed 2026-10-27 18:04:01 ET from Yahoo Finance (yfinance). "–" means the data isn't available. Refresh now

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Systematic research · Not investment advice · Hypothetical unless marked Live · Data: Yahoo Finance (15-min delayed), SEC EDGAR, House Clerk · Important disclosures · Contact desk@coteau.app

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Coteau 0.9 · Oct 21, 2026