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Lumentum Holdings Inc.
$866.18
+$48.08 (5.88%)Oct 27 close
Information TechnologyS&P 500 CompareTechnicals
Model valuationLeans expensiveDCF base $144
1M3M6M1Y2Y
-21%+106%+234%+362%+490%Oct 2025Oct 2026Apr 202652w high $1,143.0052w low $152.54
LITESPY
Wall St. Highest PT $1,500.00 (+73.2%) Wall St. Avg PT $1,180.99 (+36.3%)
$188$528$867$1,206$1,545POC $897Hi $1,500Avg $1,181
Underwater Drawdown %Max DD -42.8%Current -23.6%
0.0%-42.8%
Relative Strength vs SPY+333.4% vs SPYOutperforming
+540%0%-540%
1W
+$43.67 (5.31%)
1M
−$75.47 (8.01%)
3M
+$214.25 (32.86%)
6M
+$74.81 (9.45%)
YTD
+$497.59 (135.00%)
1Y
+$672.38 (346.95%)

Chart

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Ratings & dials

1m · 5m · 15m · 1h · 4h · 1D

Analyst & Morningstar ratings

Consensus · Targets · Morningstar
Wall Street analyst consensus
SellHoldStrong Buy
Buy
27 analysts · mean score 1.56
1 = Strong Buy · 5 = Sell
Strong Buy1763%
Buy519%
Hold519%
Underperform00%
Sell00%
Wall Street consensus · as of Oct 21, 2026
Analyst price targets
Current price$866.18
Average target$1,165.03
+$298.85 (+34.5%) upsideaverage target vs current price
CurrentAverageMedian
Low$750.00
Median$1,200.00
High$1,500.00
12-month Wall Street target range · as of Oct 21, 2026

Third-party ratings, not SURVYR.'s views.

Health check

Financial health
DistressGrey zoneSafe
Safe zone
Altman Z-score 16.8
Above 2.99 is the safe zone, below 1.81 the distress zone.
Quality
WeakAverageStrong
Average
Piotroski F-score 5 of 9
See the tests
  • ✗Positive net income
  • ✓Positive operating cash flow
  • ✗Return on assets improved
  • ✓Cash flow above net income
  • ✓Long-term debt / assets fell
  • ✗Current ratio improved
  • ✗No share dilution
  • ✓Gross margin improved
  • ✓Asset turnover improved

Computed by SURVYR. from the company's SEC filings (latest balance sheet Jun 27, 2026). Descriptive, not a forecast.

Key stats & company

Market value$77.1B
P/E (next 12 months, estimated)24.0
52-week range$152.54 – $1,143.00
Revenue growth (latest quarter vs a year ago)+109.3%
Dividend yieldNo dividend
Analyst consensusStrong Buy (26)
Average analyst price target$1,180.99 (+36%)

What they do

Lumentum Holdings Inc. manufactures and sells optical and photonic products in the Americas, the Asia-Pacific, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. It offers component products, including semiconductor laser chips, laser sub-assemblies, line subsystems, and wavelength management systems. The company also offers system products, such as optical modules, optical circuit switches, and industrial lasers.

Technology · Communication Equipment
Valuation and fundamentals

Valuation & fundamentals

Bottom line
Leans expensive
Model read-out from the numbers below, not advice. Score -2 (DCF counts double).
▼DCF (base case)below the price by 83%
▼Forward P/E vs sector24.0x vs median 17.3x
•Piotroski F-score5/9
▲Altman Z16.8 (safe)
▲Net debt / EBITDA0.9x
▲Analyst target+36% (26 analysts)

Discounted cash flow

Bear
$65
-92%
growth 18% · disc. 12.9% · term. 2.0%
Base
$144
-83%
growth 30% · disc. 11.9% · term. 2.5%
Bull
$255
-71%
growth 38% · disc. 10.9% · term. 3.0%

A DCF starts from trailing free cash flow, so it can overstate value if the last 12 months were unusually strong (or weak). Use the bear case or edit the starting cash flow if so.

Reverse DCFfor context, not a signal
Today's price assumes free cash flow grows about 49% a year for 10 years.
Implied
+49%/yr
FCF, last 3 yrs
+80%/yr
FCF, last 5 yrs
-14%/yr
Revenue, last 3 yrs
+19%/yr
Revenue, last 5 yrs
+12%/yr
Same inputs as the DCF above: trailing free cash flow 0.3B, 11.9% discount rate, 2.5% growth after year 10, net debt and today's share count. Actual growth rates are compound annual rates from SEC annual filings through FY2026; "n/a" means too little history or a negative starting year.
Edit assumptions · recalculates instantly
Your value per share–

Free cash flow = operating cash flow − capital spending, trailing 12 months (FY to 2026-06-27). Growth default: average of 3-year revenue CAGR and latest revenue growth, capped at 30%. Years 6–10 fade linearly to terminal growth. Discount rate = 4.25% risk-free assumption + beta 1.54 × 5% equity premium, kept within 7–13%. Bear: lower growth, +1 pt discount, 2% terminal. Bull: higher growth, −1 pt, 3%.

Multiples vs Information Technology

P/E (trailing)
sector median 35.4×
 –
Forward P/E
sector median 17.3× · 71st pct
 24.0×
pricier
EV / EBITDA
sector median 20.3× · 96th pct
 147.9×
pricier
Price / sales
sector median 4.8× · 97th pct
 25.6×
pricier
Price / book
sector median 5.2× · 88th pct
 16.6×
pricier
FCF yield
sector median 3.6% · 11th pct
 0.4%
pricier

Forward EPS $35.51 vs trailing $-92.96. Forward P/E uses analysts' next-12-month estimate.

Backlog (remaining performance obligations)

RPO
$426.6M
as of 2021-04-03
vs a year ago
-22%
YoY
× TTM revenue
0.14×
coverage
19-06
19-09
19-12
20-03
20-06
20-09
20-12
21-04

Contracted revenue not yet recognized, from SEC filings (XBRL tag RevenueRemainingPerformanceObligation).

Quality & financial health

Gross margin
41.7%
Operating margin
17.4%
FCF margin
10.0%
Net margin
-230.1%
Return on equity
-149.3%
Return on invested capital
10.2%
Net debt / EBITDA
0.9×
Current ratio
1.7×
Interest cover
24.1×
Cash conversion (OCF/NI)
–
Piotroski F-score 5/9 · last two fiscal years
✗ Positive net income✓ Positive operating cash flow✗ Return on assets improved✓ Cash flow above net income✓ Long-term debt / assets fell✗ Current ratio improved✗ No share dilution✓ Gross margin improved✓ Asset turnover improved

Altman Z-score 16.8 (safe zone; above 3.0 = safe, below 1.8 = distress). Not meaningful for banks and insurers.

Analysts

Mean target
$1,181
+36%
Analysts
26
Strong Buy
Range
$820–$1,500
low – high
● price · ◆ mean target

Annual history

FYRevenueNet incomeFree cash flow
2026$3.0B$-6.9B$300.1M
2025$1.6B$25.9M$-104.7M
2024$1.4B$-546.5M$-108.3M
2023$1.8B$-131.6M$51.3M
2022$1.7B$198.9M$368.1M
2021$1.7B$397.3M$653.9M

From the company's 10-K filings via SEC XBRL. 3-year revenue CAGR +19.5%.

For information only · Important disclosures

Grades vs sector

Momentum
99th percentile in sector
A+
12-1 return: +381.9%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Growth
98th percentile in sector
A+
Revenue growth (YoY): +109.3%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Value
19th percentile in sector
D
Forward E/P: 4.4% · EBITDA/EV: 1.1%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Profitability
0th percentile in sector
F
Profit margin: -230.1% · Return on equity: -240.0%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Revisions
Not enough data yet
–
EPS estimate change, 30 days (current FY): –
30-day change in analysts' current-year EPS estimate; graded across covered stocks.

Systematic Models

Held by 2 of 7 live models: Momentum Top 15, New Highs Growth.

Momentum Top 15
6.7% of the book · ranked 3 of 499
 HeldNew Highs Growth
4.0% of the book · ranked 1 of 589
 HeldQuality Growth
Outside this model's universe or screens
 Momentum Blend
Not in the current book
 SURVYR. Barbell Momentum & T-Bill Shield
Outside this model's universe or screens
 SURVYR. Physical AI Grid & Power
Outside this model's universe or screens
 SURVYR. Long Book
Not in the current book
Why it's in the Momentum Top 15 #3 of 499

Qualified on 12-1 momentum of +462.2% (its gain from 12 months to 1 month before 2026-09-30). Ranked 3rd of 499 at the 2026-09-30 rebalance.

What would knock it out: Drops out if it falls outside the top 15 at the next rebalance (Oct 30). In the latest preview (2026-10-27) it ranks 3rd.

Why it's in the New Highs Growth #1 of 589

Qualified on AI Infrastructure, -8% from 52-week high, revenue +109% y/y, 12-1 momentum +463%. Ranked 1st of 589 at the 2026-09-30 rebalance.

What would knock it out: Drops out if it falls outside the top 25 at the next rebalance (Oct 30). In the latest preview (2026-10-27) it is outside the top 25.

Earnings & events

LITE earningsNext report in 9 days
Next report · quarter Sep 2026
Thu Nov 5, 2026After the close
EPS consensus$4.22
Revenue consensus–
Last 4 quarters · EPS vs estimate
Aug 11, 2026$3.23est $2.97+8.8%Above estimates
May 5, 2026$2.37est $2.27+4.6%Above estimates
Feb 3, 2026$1.67est $1.41+18.6%Above estimates
Nov 4, 2025$1.10est $1.03+7.0%Above estimates

In line = within 1% of the estimate.

Source: Yahoo Finance · report time: Nasdaq earnings calendar · refreshed 2026-10-27 18:02:54 ET
24-1125-0225-0525-0825-1126-0226-0526-080.003.23
EstimateActual (beat)Actual (miss)

News & catalysts

More news
Can Lumentum Stock Drop From Here?
Trefis · 9h ago
Stock Market Today, Oct. 26: AI Optimism Lifts Nasdaq as Tech Stocks Rebound
Motley Fool · Oct 26
Why Lumentum’s stock led the S&P 500 higher on Monday
MarketWatch · Oct 26
Optics Stocks Tumble as Tech Selloff Deepens Ahead of Earnings: Coherent Tumbles 12%, Applied Optoelectronics Drops 10%, Lumentum Falls 9%
24/7 Wall St. · Oct 22
Applied Optoelectronics Cratered 50% Over 6 Months: It’s Going to Triple According to 2 Wall Street Pros
24/7 Wall St. · Oct 21

Research

Momentum Top 15: rebalance of Sep 30, 2026Oct 22, 2026New Highs Growth: rebalance of Sep 30, 2026Oct 22, 2026Momentum Top 15: the October 2026 book, a rough start, and what the backtest says to expectOct 18, 2026
Insider trades
Ali Wajid
EVP & CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER · 2026-10-01
Sell
$25.7M
Wupen Yuen
PRESIDENT, GLOBAL BUS. UNITS · 2026-09-29
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$290.1K
Wupen Yuen
PRESIDENT, GLOBAL BUS. UNITS · 2026-09-28
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$474.2K
Wupen Yuen
PRESIDENT, GLOBAL BUS. UNITS · 2026-09-25
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$467.9K
Wupen Yuen
PRESIDENT, GLOBAL BUS. UNITS · 2026-09-24
Sell
$460.5K
Wupen Yuen
PRESIDENT, GLOBAL BUS. UNITS · 2026-09-23
Sell
$473.3K
Wupen Yuen
PRESIDENT, GLOBAL BUS. UNITS · 2026-09-22
Sell
$467.8K
Wupen Yuen
PRESIDENT, GLOBAL BUS. UNITS · 2026-09-21
Sell
$479.6K
Wupen Yuen
PRESIDENT, GLOBAL BUS. UNITS · 2026-09-18
Sell
$460.0K
Wupen Yuen
PRESIDENT, GLOBAL BUS. UNITS · 2026-09-17
Sell
$466.7K
Wupen Yuen
PRESIDENT, GLOBAL BUS. UNITS · 2026-09-16
Sell
$428.4K
Wupen Yuen
PRESIDENT, GLOBAL BUS. UNITS · 2026-09-15
Sell
$420.8K

Stats refreshed 2026-10-27 18:02:54 ET from Yahoo Finance (yfinance). "–" means the data isn't available. Refresh now

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Systematic research · Not investment advice · Hypothetical unless marked Live · Data: Yahoo Finance (15-min delayed), SEC EDGAR, House Clerk · Important disclosures · Contact desk@coteau.app

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