SURVYR
13F +9% · EXODUSPOINT Institutional Filing Alert

ExodusPoint Capital Management (Michael Gelband & Hyung Lee) added to LLY (+9% shares QoQ · 13.0% of 13F portfolio)

Form 13F-HR institutional holdings disclosure · Filed 2026-10-17

ExodusPoint Holdings › All Filing Alerts › SEC Filing ↗

LLY

Eli Lilly and Company
$1,281.91
+$2.77 (0.22%)Oct 27 close
Health CareS&P 500 CompareTechnicals
Model valuationLeans undervaluedDCF base $3,343
1M3M6M1Y2Y
-7%+9%+26%+43%+60%Oct 2025Oct 2026Apr 202652w high $1,311.7552w low $793.82
LLYSPY
Wall St. Highest PT $1,600.00 (+24.8%) Wall St. Avg PT $1,331.55 (+3.9%)
$808$1,018$1,228$1,438$1,648POC $1,004Hi $1,600Avg $1,332
Underwater Drawdown %Max DD -23.2%Current -1.9%
0.0%-23.2%
Relative Strength vs SPY+42.6% vs SPYOutperforming
+53%0%-53%
1W
−$1.75 (0.14%)
1M
+$98.45 (8.32%)
3M
+$63.00 (5.17%)
6M
+$410.66 (47.13%)
YTD
+$212.40 (19.86%)
1Y
+$460.68 (56.10%)

Chart

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Ratings & dials

1m · 5m · 15m · 1h · 4h · 1D

Analyst & Morningstar ratings

Consensus · Targets · Morningstar
Wall Street analyst consensus
SellHoldStrong Buy
Buy
30 analysts · mean score 1.61
1 = Strong Buy · 5 = Sell
Wall Street consensus
Analyst price targets
Current price$1,281.91
Average target$1,331.55
+$49.64 (+3.9%) upsideaverage target vs current price
CurrentAverageMedian
Low$930.00
Median$1,331.55
High$1,600.00
12-month Wall Street target range

Third-party ratings, not SURVYR.'s views.

Health check

Quality
WeakAverageStrong
Average
Piotroski F-score 6 of 9
See the tests
  • ✓Positive net income
  • ✓Positive operating cash flow
  • ✓Return on assets improved
  • ✗Cash flow above net income
  • ✗Long-term debt / assets fell
  • ✓Current ratio improved
  • ✓No share dilution
  • ✗Gross margin improved
  • ✓Asset turnover improved

Computed by SURVYR. from the company's SEC filings (latest balance sheet Jun 30, 2026). Descriptive, not a forecast.

Key stats & company

Market value$1.1T
P/E (last 12 months)42.7
P/E (next 12 months, estimated)26.9
52-week range$793.82 – $1,311.75
Revenue growth (latest quarter vs a year ago)+47.7%
Dividend yield0.54%
Analyst consensusBuy (30)
Average analyst price target$1,331.55 (+4%)

What they do

Eli Lilly and Company discovers, develops, manufactures, and markets human pharmaceutical products in the United States, Europe, China, Japan, and internationally. The company offers cardiometabolic health products, including Basaglar, Humalog, Humalog Mix 75/25, Humalog U-100, Humalog U-200, Humalog Mix 50/50, insulin lispro.

Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - General
Valuation and fundamentals

Valuation & fundamentals

Bottom line
Leans undervalued
Model read-out from the numbers below, not advice. Score +1 (DCF counts double).
▲DCF (base case)above the price by 161%
▼Forward P/E vs sector26.9x vs median 18.0x
•Piotroski F-score6/9
•Analyst target+4% (30 analysts)

Discounted cash flow

Bear
$1,281
-0%
growth 18% · disc. 8.0% · term. 2.0%
Base
$3,343
+161%
growth 30% · disc. 7.0% · term. 2.5%
Bull
$7,594
+492%
growth 38% · disc. 6.0% · term. 3.0%

A DCF starts from trailing free cash flow, so it can overstate value if the last 12 months were unusually strong (or weak). Use the bear case or edit the starting cash flow if so.

Reverse DCFfor context, not a signal
Today's price assumes free cash flow grows about 10% a year for 10 years.
Implied
+10%/yr
FCF, last 3 yrs
+30%/yr
FCF, last 5 yrs
+21%/yr
Revenue, last 3 yrs
+32%/yr
Revenue, last 5 yrs
+22%/yr
Same inputs as the DCF above: trailing free cash flow 28.1B, 7.0% discount rate, 2.5% growth after year 10, net debt and today's share count. Actual growth rates are compound annual rates from SEC annual filings through FY2025; "n/a" means too little history or a negative starting year.
Edit assumptions · recalculates instantly
Your value per share–

Free cash flow = operating cash flow − capital spending, trailing 12 months (TTM to 2026-06-30). Growth default: average of 3-year revenue CAGR and latest revenue growth, capped at 30%. Years 6–10 fade linearly to terminal growth. Discount rate = 4.25% risk-free assumption + beta 0.45 × 5% equity premium, kept within 7–13%. Bear: lower growth, +1 pt discount, 2% terminal. Bull: higher growth, −1 pt, 3%.

Multiples vs Health Care

P/E (trailing)
sector median 31.2× · 74th pct
 42.7×
pricier
Forward P/E
sector median 18.0× · 79th pct
 26.9×
pricier
EV / EBITDA
sector median 16.2×
 –
Price / sales
sector median 3.3× · 93rd pct
 14.2×
pricier
Price / book
sector median 3.5× · 97th pct
 33.4×
pricier
FCF yield
sector median 4.0% · 30th pct
 2.5%
pricier

Forward EPS $47.22 vs trailing $29.79 (+59% expected growth). Forward P/E uses analysts' next-12-month estimate.

Quality & financial health

Gross margin
83.4%
Operating margin
–
FCF margin
35.3%
Net margin
33.5%
Return on equity
78.8%
Return on invested capital
–
Net debt / EBITDA
–
Current ratio
1.4×
Interest cover
–
Cash conversion (OCF/NI)
1.1×
Piotroski F-score 6/9 · last two fiscal years
✓ Positive net income✓ Positive operating cash flow✓ Return on assets improved✗ Cash flow above net income✗ Long-term debt / assets fell✓ Current ratio improved✓ No share dilution✗ Gross margin improved✓ Asset turnover improved

Analysts

Mean target
$1,332
+4%
Analysts
30
Buy
Range
$930–$1,600
low – high
● price · ◆ mean target

Annual history

FYRevenueNet incomeFree cash flow
2025$65.2B$20.6B$16.8B
2024$45.0B$10.6B$8.8B
2023$34.1B$5.2B$4.2B
2022$28.5B$6.2B$7.6B
2021$28.3B$5.6B$7.4B
2020$24.5B$6.2B$6.5B

From the company's 10-K filings via SEC XBRL. 3-year revenue CAGR +31.7%.

For information only · Important disclosures

Grades vs sector

Momentum
70th percentile in sector
B
12-1 return: +34.9%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Growth
94th percentile in sector
A
Revenue growth (YoY): +47.7%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Value
18th percentile in sector
D
Forward E/P: 3.8% · EBITDA/EV: 3.6%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Profitability
96th percentile in sector
A+
Profit margin: +33.5% · Return on equity: +102.3%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Revisions
Not enough data yet
–
EPS estimate change, 30 days (current FY): –
30-day change in analysts' current-year EPS estimate; graded across covered stocks.

Systematic Models

Not held by any of our 7 live models right now.

Quality Growth
Outside this model's universe or screens
 Momentum Top 15
ranked 56 of 499 · 12-month momentum 52.6%
 Momentum Blend
Not in the current book
 New Highs Growth
Outside this model's universe or screens
 SURVYR. Barbell Momentum & T-Bill Shield
Outside this model's universe or screens
 SURVYR. Physical AI Grid & Power
Outside this model's universe or screens
 SURVYR. Long Book
Not in the current book

Earnings & events

LLY earningsReports tomorrow
Next report · quarter Sep 2026
Thu Oct 29, 2026Before the open
EPS consensus$6.61
Revenue consensus–
Last 4 quarters · EPS vs estimate
Aug 5, 2026$8.38est $6.58+27.3%Above estimates
Apr 30, 2026$8.55est $6.79+25.9%Above estimates
Feb 4, 2026$7.54est $6.91+9.1%Above estimates
Oct 30, 2025$7.02est $5.89+19.1%Above estimates

In line = within 1% of the estimate.

Source: Yahoo Finance · report time: Nasdaq earnings calendar · refreshed 2026-10-27 17:56:13 ET
24-1025-0225-0525-0825-1026-0226-0426-080.008.55
EstimateActual (beat)Actual (miss)

News & catalysts

More news
$10,000 Invested in Eli Lilly 5 Years Ago Would Be Worth This Much Today
Motley Fool · 8h ago
Capital Group Growth (CGGR) Adds Disney and Rocket on Oct. 23
GuruFocus.com · 20h ago
3 Portfolio-Worthy Stocks Hitting 52-Week Highs: AAPL, LLY & KO
Zacks · Oct 23
IBD's Most Sustainable Companies Across Industry Categories
Investor's Business Daily · Oct 23
Amgen vs. Eli Lilly: Does the GLP-1 Mania Make LLY Stock a Better Buy in 2026?
Nasdaq · Oct 22
Insider trades
Jonsson Patrik
EVP & President, LLY Int'l · 2026-08-17
Sell
$7.6M
Zakrowski Donald A
SVP, Finance, & CAO · 2026-08-10
Sell
$2.4M
Hakim Anat
EVP, GC & Secretary · 2026-08-07
Sell
$6.0M
None
None · None
Sell
–
None
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Sell
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Sell
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Sell
–
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Sell
–
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Sell
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Sell
–
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Sell
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Sell
–

Stats refreshed 2026-10-27 17:56:13 ET from Yahoo Finance (yfinance). "–" means the data isn't available. Refresh now

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Systematic research · Not investment advice · Hypothetical unless marked Live · Data: Yahoo Finance (15-min delayed), SEC EDGAR, House Clerk · Important disclosures · Contact desk@coteau.app

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Coteau 0.9 · Oct 21, 2026