SURVYR

MPC

Marathon Petroleum Corporation
$470.64
+$13.42 (2.94%)Oct 26 close
EnergyS&P 500 CompareTechnicals
Model valuationLooks undervaluedDCF base $1,627
1M3M6M1Y2Y
-17%+26%+70%+113%+156%Oct 2025Oct 2026Apr 202652w high $493.9852w low $161.93
MPCSPY
Wall St. Highest PT $560.00 (+19.0%) Wall St. Avg PT $458.72 (-2.5%)
$161$265$369$473$577POC $242Hi $560Avg $459
Underwater Drawdown %Max DD -18.3%Current -2.9%
0.0%-18.3%
Relative Strength vs SPY+130.9% vs SPYOutperforming
+158%0%-158%
1W
−$3.05 (0.64%)
1M
+$77.12 (19.60%)
3M
+$159.14 (51.09%)
6M
+$244.91 (108.50%)
YTD
+$309.88 (192.75%)
1Y
+$277.64 (143.86%)

Chart

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Ratings & dials

1m · 5m · 15m · 1h · 4h · 1D

Analyst & Morningstar ratings

Consensus · Targets · Morningstar
Wall Street analyst consensus
SellHoldStrong Buy
Buy
19 analysts · mean score 2.37
1 = Strong Buy · 5 = Sell
Strong Buy526%
Buy421%
Hold947%
Underperform00%
Sell15%
Wall Street consensus · as of Oct 21, 2026
Analyst price targets
Current price$470.64
Average target$458.72
−$11.92 (−2.5%) downsideaverage target vs current price
CurrentAverageMedian
Low$236.00
Median$470.00
High$560.00
12-month Wall Street target range · as of Oct 21, 2026

Third-party ratings, not SURVYR.'s views.

Health check

Financial health
DistressGrey zoneSafe
Safe zone
Altman Z-score 4.0
Above 2.99 is the safe zone, below 1.81 the distress zone.
Quality
WeakAverageStrong
Strong
Piotroski F-score 7 of 9
See the tests
  • ✓Positive net income
  • ✓Positive operating cash flow
  • ✓Return on assets improved
  • ✓Cash flow above net income
  • ✓Long-term debt / assets fell
  • ✓Current ratio improved
  • ✓No share dilution
  • ✗Gross margin improved
  • ✗Asset turnover improved

Computed by SURVYR. from the company's SEC filings (latest balance sheet Jun 30, 2026). Descriptive, not a forecast.

Key stats & company

Market value$128.4B
P/E (last 12 months)15.8
P/E (next 12 months, estimated)7.8
52-week range$161.93 – $493.98
Revenue growth (latest quarter vs a year ago)+53.7%
Dividend yield0.87%
Analyst consensusBuy (18)
Average analyst price target$458.72 (-3%)

What they do

Marathon Petroleum Corporation operates as an integrated downstream energy company in the United States. The company operates through three segments: Refining & Marketing; Midstream; and Renewable Diesel. The Refining & Marketing segment refines crude oil and other feedstocks at its refineries in the Gulf Coast, Mid-Continent, and West Coast regions of the United States.

Energy · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Valuation and fundamentals

Valuation & fundamentals

Bottom line
Looks undervalued
Model read-out from the numbers below, not advice. Score +4 (DCF counts double).
▲DCF (base case)above the price by 246%
▲Forward P/E vs sector7.8x vs median 13.6x
▲Piotroski F-score7/9
▲Altman Z4.0 (safe)
▲Net debt / EBITDA-0.3x
•Analyst target-3% (18 analysts)

Discounted cash flow

CyclicalValued on average-cycle margins
Bear
$755
+60%
growth 13% · disc. 8.0% · term. 2.0%
Base
$1,627
+246%
growth 22% · disc. 7.0% · term. 2.5%
Bull
$3,320
+605%
growth 28% · disc. 6.0% · term. 3.0%

Starting cash flow is mid-cycle: 4.1% average margin × current revenue = 6.2B (last 12 months: 12.9B at a 8% margin). On trailing cash flow the base case would be $3,349.

Reverse DCFfor context, not a signal
Today's price assumes free cash flow grows about 1% a year for 10 years.
Implied
+1%/yr
FCF, last 3 yrs
-30%/yr
FCF, last 5 yrs
n/a
Revenue, last 3 yrs
-9%/yr
Revenue, last 5 yrs
+14%/yr
Same inputs as the DCF above: mid-cycle free cash flow 6.2B, 7.0% discount rate, 2.5% growth after year 10, net cash and today's share count. Actual growth rates are compound annual rates from SEC annual filings through FY2025; "n/a" means too little history or a negative starting year.
Edit assumptions · recalculates instantly
Your value per share–

Free cash flow = operating cash flow − capital spending, trailing 12 months (TTM to 2026-06-30). Growth default: average of 3-year revenue CAGR and latest revenue growth, capped at 30%. Years 6–10 fade linearly to terminal growth. Discount rate = 4.25% risk-free assumption + beta 0.54 × 5% equity premium, kept within 7–13%. Bear: lower growth, +1 pt discount, 2% terminal. Bull: higher growth, −1 pt, 3%.

Multiples vs Energy

P/E (trailing)
sector median 18.1× · 38th pct
 15.8×
cheaper
Forward P/E
sector median 13.6× · 12th pct
 7.8×
cheaper
EV / EBITDA
sector median 8.1× · 39th pct
 7.1×
cheaper
Price / sales
sector median 2.3× · 15th pct
 0.8×
cheaper
Price / book
sector median 1.9× · 92nd pct
 6.7×
pricier
FCF yield
sector median 7.6% · 64th pct
 10.0%
cheaper

Forward EPS $58.44 vs trailing $28.88 (+102% expected growth). Forward P/E uses analysts' next-12-month estimate.

Quality & financial health

Gross margin
12.5%
Operating margin
9.2%
FCF margin
8.4%
Net margin
5.6%
Return on equity
44.8%
Return on invested capital
78.0%
Net debt / EBITDA
-0.3×
Current ratio
1.3×
Interest cover
8.7×
Cash conversion (OCF/NI)
2.0×
Piotroski F-score 7/9 · last two fiscal years
✓ Positive net income✓ Positive operating cash flow✓ Return on assets improved✓ Cash flow above net income✓ Long-term debt / assets fell✓ Current ratio improved✓ No share dilution✗ Gross margin improved✗ Asset turnover improved

Altman Z-score 4.0 (safe zone; above 3.0 = safe, below 1.8 = distress). Not meaningful for banks and insurers.

Analysts

Mean target
$459
-3%
Analysts
18
Buy
Range
$236–$560
low – high
● price · ◆ mean target

Annual history

FYRevenueNet incomeFree cash flow
2025$132.7B$4.0B$4.8B
2024$138.9B$3.4B$6.1B
2023$148.4B$9.7B$12.2B
2022$177.5B$14.5B$13.9B
2021$120.0B$9.7B$2.9B
2020$69.8B$-9.8B$-368.0M

From the company's 10-K filings via SEC XBRL. 3-year revenue CAGR -9.2%.

For information only · Important disclosures

Grades vs sector

Momentum
93rd percentile in sector
A
12-1 return: +106.3%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Growth
80th percentile in sector
A-
Revenue growth (YoY): +53.7%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Value
56th percentile in sector
B-
Forward E/P: 11.7% · EBITDA/EV: 9.2%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Profitability
63rd percentile in sector
B-
Profit margin: +5.5% · Return on equity: +42.1%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Revisions
Not enough data yet
–
EPS estimate change, 30 days (current FY): –
30-day change in analysts' current-year EPS estimate; graded across covered stocks.

Systematic Models

Held by 1 of 7 live models: Quality Growth.

Quality Growth
6.7% of the book · ranked 9 of 360
 HeldMomentum Top 15
ranked 23 of 499 · 12-month momentum 96.9%
 Momentum Blend
Not in the current book
 New Highs Growth
Outside this model's universe or screens
 SURVYR. Barbell Momentum & T-Bill Shield
Outside this model's universe or screens
 SURVYR. Physical AI Grid & Power
Outside this model's universe or screens
 SURVYR. Long Book
Not in the current book
Why it's in the Quality Growth #9 of 360

Qualified on ROIC 83%, revenue +15% (TTM), growth accelerating +32.4 pts, latest quarter 2026-06-30. Ranked 9th of 360 at the 2026-09-30 rebalance.

What would knock it out: Drops out if it falls outside the top 15 at the next rebalance (Oct 30). In the latest preview (2026-10-26) it ranks 20th.

Earnings & events

MPC earningsNext report in 7 days
Next report · quarter Sep 2026
Tue Nov 3, 2026Before the open
EPS consensus$25.37
Revenue consensus–
Last 4 quarters · EPS vs estimate
Aug 4, 2026$17.73est $13.95+27.1%Above estimates
May 5, 2026$1.65est $0.75+120.6%Above estimates
Feb 3, 2026$4.07est $2.71+50.1%Above estimates
Nov 4, 2025$3.01est $3.16−4.9%Below estimates

In line = within 1% of the estimate.

Source: Yahoo Finance · report time: Nasdaq earnings calendar · refreshed 2026-10-26 17:50:02 ET
24-1125-0225-0525-0825-1126-0226-0526-08-0.5417.73
EstimateActual (beat)Actual (miss)

News & catalysts

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Research

Quality Growth: rebalance of Sep 30, 2026Oct 22, 2026
Insider trades
Lyon Shawn M
SVP Log & Storage, MPLX GP LLC · 2026-08-31
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$375.8K
Lyon Shawn M
SVP Log & Storage, MPLX GP LLC · 2026-08-28
Sell
$156.6K
Brzezinski Erin M
VP and Controller · 2026-08-27
Sell
$206.8K
Benson Molly R
Chief Legal Ofc & Corp Sec · 2026-08-17
Sell
$1.8M
Benson Molly R
Chief Legal Ofc & Corp Sec · 2026-08-17
Sell
$1.8M
Benson Molly R
Chief Legal Ofc & Corp Sec · 2026-08-17
Sell
$2.6M
Lyon Shawn M
SVP Log & Storage, MPLX GP LLC · 2026-08-13
Sell
$875.0K
Henschen Michael A Ii
Ex VP, Refining · 2026-08-12
Sell
$2.1M
None
None · None
Sell
–

Stats refreshed 2026-10-26 17:50:02 ET from Yahoo Finance (yfinance). "–" means the data isn't available. Refresh now

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Systematic research · Not investment advice · Hypothetical unless marked Live · Data: Yahoo Finance (15-min delayed), SEC EDGAR, House Clerk · Important disclosures · Contact desk@coteau.app

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Coteau 0.9 · Oct 21, 2026