SURVYR

MRNA

Moderna, Inc.
$207.97
+$9.12 (4.59%)Oct 27 close
Health CareS&P 500 CompareTechnicals
-16%+201%+419%+637%+855%Oct 2025Oct 2026Apr 202652w high $254.4852w low $22.28
MRNASPY
Wall St. Highest PT $251.00 (+20.7%) Wall St. Avg PT $135.05 (-35.1%)
$22$81$140$199$259POC $46Hi $251Avg $135
Underwater Drawdown %Max DD -34.2%Current -15.4%
0.0%-34.2%
Relative Strength vs SPY+666.6% vs SPYOutperforming
+929%0%-929%
1W
−$34.11 (14.09%)
1M
+$9.09 (4.57%)
3M
+$152.17 (272.67%)
6M
+$160.83 (341.18%)
YTD
+$178.48 (605.22%)
1Y
+$181.31 (680.08%)

Chart

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Ratings & dials

1m · 5m · 15m · 1h · 4h · 1D

Analyst & Morningstar ratings

Consensus · Targets · Morningstar
Wall Street analyst consensus
SellHoldStrong Buy
Hold
23 analysts · mean score 2.87
1 = Strong Buy · 5 = Sell
Strong Buy417%
Buy14%
Hold1461%
Underperform29%
Sell29%
Wall Street consensus · as of Oct 22, 2026
Analyst price targets
Current price$207.97
Average target$130.58
−$77.39 (−37.2%) downsideaverage target vs current price
CurrentAverageMedian
Low$45.00
Median$125.00
High$251.00
12-month Wall Street target range · as of Oct 22, 2026

Third-party ratings, not SURVYR.'s views.

Health check

Financial health
DistressGrey zoneSafe
Safe zone
Altman Z-score 11.6
Above 2.99 is the safe zone, below 1.81 the distress zone.
Quality
WeakAverageStrong
Weak
Piotroski F-score 2 of 9
See the tests
  • ✗Positive net income
  • ✗Positive operating cash flow
  • ✓Return on assets improved
  • ✓Cash flow above net income
  • ✗Long-term debt / assets fell
  • ✗Current ratio improved
  • ✗No share dilution
  • ✗Gross margin improved
  • ✗Asset turnover improved

Computed by SURVYR. from the company's SEC filings (latest balance sheet Jun 30, 2026). Descriptive, not a forecast.

Key stats & company

Market value$79.9B
P/E (next 12 months, estimated)-43.6
52-week range$22.28 – $254.48
Revenue growth (latest quarter vs a year ago)+2.1%
Dividend yieldNo dividend
Analyst consensusHold (19)
Average analyst price target$135.05 (-35%)

What they do

Moderna, Inc., a biotechnology company, provides messenger RNA medicines in the United States, Europe, and internationally. The company's respiratory vaccines include spikevax, mNEXSPIKE, mRESVIA, COVID, RSV, seasonal influenza, combination, and pandemic influenza vaccine. It also provides oncology therapeutics, such as intismeran autogene, cancer antigen therapy, t-cell engager, and cell therapy enhancer.

Healthcare · Biotechnology
Valuation and fundamentals

Valuation & fundamentals

Bottom line
No cash-flow valuation
Model read-out from the numbers below, not advice. Score -2 (DCF counts double).
▼Piotroski F-score2/9
▲Altman Z11.6 (safe)
▼Analyst target-35% (19 analysts)

Discounted cash flow

Trailing free cash flow is negative or missing, so a cash-flow DCF isn't meaningful by default. You can enter your own assumptions below.
Reverse DCFfor context, not a signal
Trailing free cash flow is zero or negative, so there's no growth rate to solve for. The price is betting on a turnaround to positive cash flow.
Edit assumptions · recalculates instantly
Your value per share–

Free cash flow = operating cash flow − capital spending, trailing 12 months (TTM to 2026-06-30). Growth default: average of 3-year revenue CAGR and latest revenue growth, capped at 30%. Years 6–10 fade linearly to terminal growth. Discount rate = 4.25% risk-free assumption + beta 1.09 × 5% equity premium, kept within 7–13%. Bear: lower growth, +1 pt discount, 2% terminal. Bull: higher growth, −1 pt, 3%.

Multiples vs Health Care

P/E (trailing)
sector median 31.2×
–
Forward P/E
sector median 18.0×
–
EV / EBITDA
sector median 16.2×
–
Price / sales
sector median 3.3× · 98th pct
35.9×
pricier
Price / book
sector median 3.5× · 90th pct
11.8×
pricier
FCF yield
sector median 4.0% · 9th pct
-1.6%
pricier

Forward EPS $-4.59 vs trailing $-7.98. Forward P/E uses analysts' next-12-month estimate.

Backlog (remaining performance obligations)

RPO
$87.2M
as of 2020-12-31
vs a year ago
-65%
YoY
× TTM revenue
0.04×
coverage
19-03
19-06
19-09
19-12
20-03
20-06
20-09
20-12

Contracted revenue not yet recognized, from SEC filings (XBRL tag RevenueRemainingPerformanceObligation).

Quality & financial health

Gross margin
23.4%
Operating margin
-149.0%
FCF margin
-55.8%
Net margin
-141.4%
Return on equity
-46.6%
Return on invested capital
-118.5%
Net debt / EBITDA
–
Current ratio
2.3×
Interest cover
–
Cash conversion (OCF/NI)
–
Piotroski F-score 2/9 · last two fiscal years
✗ Positive net income✗ Positive operating cash flow✓ Return on assets improved✓ Cash flow above net income✗ Long-term debt / assets fell✗ Current ratio improved✗ No share dilution✗ Gross margin improved✗ Asset turnover improved

Altman Z-score 11.6 (safe zone; above 3.0 = safe, below 1.8 = distress). Not meaningful for banks and insurers.

Analysts

Mean target
$135
-35%
Analysts
19
Hold
Range
$45–$251
low – high
● price · ◆ mean target

Annual history

FYRevenueNet incomeFree cash flow
2025$1.9B$-2.8B$-2.1B
2024$3.2B$-3.6B$-4.1B
2023$6.8B$-4.7B$-3.8B
2022$19.3B$8.4B$4.6B
2021$18.5B$12.2B$13.3B
2020$803.0M$-747.0M$2.0B

From the company's 10-K filings via SEC XBRL. 3-year revenue CAGR -53.4%.

For information only · Important disclosures

Grades vs sector

Momentum
100th percentile in sector
A+
12-1 return: +609.0%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Growth
18th percentile in sector
D
Revenue growth (YoY): +2.1%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Value
Not enough data yet
–
Forward E/P: – · EBITDA/EV: –
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Profitability
3rd percentile in sector
F
Profit margin: -141.4% · Return on equity: -39.0%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Revisions
Not enough data yet
–
EPS estimate change, 30 days (current FY): –
30-day change in analysts' current-year EPS estimate; graded across covered stocks.

Systematic Models

Held by 2 of 7 live models: Momentum Top 15, Momentum Blend.

Momentum Top 15
6.7% of the book · ranked 4 of 499
Held
Momentum Blend
5.4% of the book · Leaders sleeve
Held
Quality Growth
Outside this model's universe or screens
New Highs Growth
Outside this model's universe or screens
SURVYR. Barbell Momentum & T-Bill Shield
Outside this model's universe or screens
SURVYR. Physical AI Grid & Power
Outside this model's universe or screens
SURVYR. Long Book
Not in the current book
Why it's in the Momentum Top 15 #4 of 499

Qualified on 12-1 momentum of +443.3% (its gain from 12 months to 1 month before 2026-09-30). Ranked 4th of 499 at the 2026-09-30 rebalance.

What would knock it out: Drops out if it falls outside the top 15 at the next rebalance (Oct 30). In the latest preview (2026-10-27) it ranks 2nd.

Why it's in the Momentum Blend

In the Leaders sleeve: a fast grower breaking out near its highs after an earnings-style gap.

What would knock it out: Exits if it closes below its stop of $113.32; last close $207.97, 84% above it.

Earnings & events

MRNA earningsNext report in 9 days
Next report · quarter Sep 2026
Fri Nov 6, 2026Before the open
EPS consensus-$1.28
Revenue consensus–
Last 4 quarters · EPS vs estimate
Jul 31, 2026-$1.97est -$2.06+4.3%Above estimates
Apr 30, 2026-$3.40est -$3.88+12.4%Above estimates
Feb 13, 2026-$2.11est -$2.64+20.2%Above estimates
Nov 6, 2025-$0.51est -$2.16+76.4%Above estimates

In line = within 1% of the estimate.

Source: Yahoo Finance · report time: Nasdaq earnings calendar · refreshed 2026-10-27 18:02:54 ET
24-1125-0225-0525-0825-1126-0226-0426-07-3.880.03
EstimateActual (beat)Actual (miss)

News & catalysts

More news
Nasdaq 100 Movers: MRNA, NBIS
Nasdaq · 15h ago
Why is Moderna stock declining today?
Investing.com · 16h ago
Moderna shares slip as William Blair cuts rating on valuation after rally
Investing.com · 17h ago
Here Are Tuesday’s Top Wall Street Analyst Research Calls: Broadcom, Conoco Phillips, HubSpot, MercadoLibre, Moderna, Occidental Petroleum, PNC Financial, Trimble, and More
24/7 Wall St. · 18h ago
Oracle, IBM and Intel Have Opted Out of OKX-ICE Stock Tokens, Venue’s Own Notice Shows
Unchained · 20h ago

Research

Momentum Top 15: rebalance of Sep 30, 2026Oct 22, 2026Momentum Blend: rebalance of Sep 30, 2026Oct 22, 2026Momentum Top 15: the October 2026 book, a rough start, and what the backtest says to expectOct 18, 2026
Insider trades
Hoge Stephen
President · 2026-10-15
Sell
$8.6M
Hoge Stephen
President · 2026-10-14
Sell
$96.4K
Hoge Stephen
President · 2026-10-14
Sell
$8.3M
Hoge Stephen
President · 2026-09-15
Sell
$5.9M
Hoge Stephen
President · 2026-09-14
Sell
$5.8M
Mock James M
Chief Financial Officer · 2026-09-10
Sell
$2.0M
Mock James M
Chief Financial Officer · 2026-09-10
Sell
$2.7M
Klinger Shannon Thyme
Chief Legal Officer · 2026-09-01
Sell
$485.8K
Bancel Stephane
Director, Chief Executive Officer · 2026-08-05
Sell
$11.0M
Bancel Stephane
Director, Chief Executive Officer · 2026-08-05
Sell
$2.3M
Bancel Stephane
Director, Chief Executive Officer · 2026-08-05
Sell
$7.1M
Bancel Stephane
Director, Chief Executive Officer · 2026-08-05
Sell
$8.3M

Stats refreshed 2026-10-27 18:02:54 ET from Yahoo Finance (yfinance). "–" means the data isn't available. Refresh now

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Systematic research · Not investment advice · Hypothetical unless marked Live · Data: Yahoo Finance (15-min delayed), SEC EDGAR, House Clerk · Important disclosures · Contact desk@coteau.app

Coteau 0.9 · Oct 21, 2026