SURVYR

NOC

Northrop Grumman Corporation
$551.23
−$14.18 (2.51%)Oct 27 close
IndustrialsS&P 500 CompareTechnicals
Model valuationLeans expensiveDCF base $407
1M3M6M1Y2Y
-20%-7%+6%+19%+32%Oct 2025Oct 2026Apr 202652w high $774.0052w low $470.06
NOCSPY
Wall St. Highest PT $815.00 (+47.9%) Wall St. Avg PT $631.67 (+14.6%)
$473$587$700$813$926POC $545Hi $815Avg $632
Underwater Drawdown %Max DD -37.8%Current -27.6%
0.0%-37.8%
Relative Strength vs SPY-19.5% vs SPYUnderperforming
+39%0%-39%
1W
+$17.23 (3.23%)
1M
+$40.71 (7.97%)
3M
+$4.50 (0.82%)
6M
−$21.45 (3.75%)
YTD
−$12.11 (2.15%)
1Y
−$35.16 (6.00%)

Chart

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Ratings & dials

1m · 5m · 15m · 1h · 4h · 1D

Analyst & Morningstar ratings

Consensus · Targets · Morningstar
Wall Street analyst consensus
SellHoldStrong Buy
Buy
24 analysts · mean score 2.00
1 = Strong Buy · 5 = Sell
Wall Street consensus
Analyst price targets
Current price$551.23
Average target$631.67
+$80.44 (+14.6%) upsideaverage target vs current price
CurrentAverageMedian
Low$430.00
Median$631.67
High$815.00
12-month Wall Street target range
Recent analyst rating changes · 30
Reiterated
2026-10-22 · Barclays reiterated Underweight on NOC
Reiterated
2026-10-21 · UBS reiterated Buy on NOC
Reiterated
2026-10-21 · BNP Paribas reiterated Outperform on NOC
Reiterated
2026-10-21 · Morgan Stanley reiterated Overweight on NOC
Reiterated
2026-10-21 · Guggenheim reiterated Buy on NOC
Reiterated
2026-10-21 · RBC Capital reiterated Sector Perform on NOC
All analyst rating changes ›

Third-party ratings, not SURVYR.'s views.

Health check

Financial health
DistressGrey zoneSafe
Safe zone
Altman Z-score 3.1
Above 2.99 is the safe zone, below 1.81 the distress zone.
Quality
WeakAverageStrong
Average
Piotroski F-score 6 of 9
See the tests
  • ✓Positive net income
  • ✓Positive operating cash flow
  • ✗Return on assets improved
  • ✓Cash flow above net income
  • ✓Long-term debt / assets fell
  • ✓Current ratio improved
  • ✓No share dilution
  • ✗Gross margin improved
  • ✗Asset turnover improved

Computed by SURVYR. from the company's SEC filings (latest balance sheet Sep 30, 2026). Descriptive, not a forecast.

Key stats & company

Market value$78.3B
P/E (last 12 months)17.4
P/E (next 12 months, estimated)18.3
52-week range$470.06 – $774.00
Revenue growth (latest quarter vs a year ago)+6.7%
Dividend yield1.79%
Analyst consensusBuy (24)
Average analyst price target$631.67 (+15%)

What they do

Northrop Grumman Corporation operates as an aerospace and defense technology company in the United States, Asia/Pacific, Europe, and internationally. It operates through four segments: Aeronautics Systems, Defense Systems, Mission Systems and Space Systems. The Aeronautics Systems segment designs, develops, produces, integrates, sustains, and modernizes aircraft systems.

Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
Valuation and fundamentals

Valuation & fundamentals

Bottom line
Leans expensive
Model read-out from the numbers below, not advice. Score -2 (DCF counts double).
▼DCF (base case)below the price by 26%
•Forward P/E vs sector18.3x vs median 17.5x
•Piotroski F-score6/9
▲Altman Z3.1 (safe)
•Net debt / EBITDA1.9x
•Analyst target+15% (24 analysts)

Discounted cash flow

Bear
$228
-59%
growth 1% · disc. 10.2% · term. 2.0%
Base
$407
-26%
growth 6% · disc. 9.2% · term. 2.5%
Bull
$653
+18%
growth 9% · disc. 8.2% · term. 3.0%

A DCF starts from trailing free cash flow, so it can overstate value if the last 12 months were unusually strong (or weak). Use the bear case or edit the starting cash flow if so.

Reverse DCFfor context, not a signal
Today's price assumes free cash flow grows about 8% a year for 10 years.
Implied
+8%/yr
FCF, last 3 yrs
+31%/yr
FCF, last 5 yrs
+3%/yr
Revenue, last 3 yrs
+5%/yr
Revenue, last 5 yrs
+3%/yr
Same inputs as the DCF above: trailing free cash flow 3.8B, 9.2% discount rate, 2.5% growth after year 10, net debt and today's share count. Actual growth rates are compound annual rates from SEC annual filings through FY2025; "n/a" means too little history or a negative starting year.
Edit assumptions · recalculates instantly
Your value per share–

Free cash flow = operating cash flow − capital spending, trailing 12 months (TTM to 2026-09-30). Growth default: average of 3-year revenue CAGR and latest revenue growth, capped at 30%. Years 6–10 fade linearly to terminal growth. Discount rate = 4.25% risk-free assumption + beta -0.11 × 5% equity premium, kept within 7–13%. Bear: lower growth, +1 pt discount, 2% terminal. Bull: higher growth, −1 pt, 3%.

Multiples vs Industrials

P/E (trailing)
sector median 26.2× · 18th pct
 17.4×
cheaper
Forward P/E
sector median 17.5× · 55th pct
 18.3×
pricier
EV / EBITDA
sector median 14.9× · 49th pct
 14.6×
cheaper
Price / sales
sector median 2.2× · 40th pct
 1.8×
cheaper
Price / book
sector median 3.5× · 56th pct
 4.2×
pricier
FCF yield
sector median 4.6% · 54th pct
 4.9%
cheaper

Forward EPS $30.07 vs trailing $31.68 (-5% expected growth). Forward P/E uses analysts' next-12-month estimate.

Backlog (remaining performance obligations)

RPO
$109.6B
as of 2026-09-30
vs a year ago
+20%
YoY
× TTM revenue
2.51×
coverage
24-12
25-03
25-06
25-09
25-12
26-03
26-06
26-09

Contracted revenue not yet recognized, from SEC filings (XBRL tag RevenueRemainingPerformanceObligation).

Quality & financial health

Gross margin
–
Operating margin
10.6%
FCF margin
8.8%
Net margin
10.4%
Return on equity
24.2%
Return on invested capital
13.2%
Net debt / EBITDA
1.9×
Current ratio
1.2×
Interest cover
–
Cash conversion (OCF/NI)
1.2×
Piotroski F-score 6/9 · last two fiscal years
✓ Positive net income✓ Positive operating cash flow✗ Return on assets improved✓ Cash flow above net income✓ Long-term debt / assets fell✓ Current ratio improved✓ No share dilution✗ Gross margin improved✗ Asset turnover improved

Altman Z-score 3.1 (safe zone; above 3.0 = safe, below 1.8 = distress). Not meaningful for banks and insurers.

Analysts

Mean target
$632
+15%
Analysts
24
Buy
Range
$430–$815
low – high
● price · ◆ mean target

Annual history

FYRevenueNet incomeFree cash flow
2025$42.0B$4.2B$3.3B
2024$41.0B$4.2B$2.6B
2023$39.3B$2.1B$2.1B
2022$36.6B$4.9B$1.5B
2021$35.7B$7.0B$2.2B
2020$36.8B$3.2B$2.9B

From the company's 10-K filings via SEC XBRL. 3-year revenue CAGR +4.7%.

For information only · Important disclosures

Grades vs sector

Momentum
20th percentile in sector
D
12-1 return: -15.8%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Growth
28th percentile in sector
D+
Revenue growth (YoY): +5.1%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Value
57th percentile in sector
B-
Forward E/P: 5.8% · EBITDA/EV: 8.2%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Profitability
69th percentile in sector
B
Profit margin: +10.5% · Return on equity: +27.0%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Revisions
Not enough data yet
–
EPS estimate change, 30 days (current FY): –
30-day change in analysts' current-year EPS estimate; graded across covered stocks.

Systematic Models

Not held by any of our 7 live models right now.

Quality Growth
Outside this model's universe or screens
 Momentum Top 15
ranked 400 of 499 · 12-month momentum -10.0%
 Momentum Blend
Not in the current book
 New Highs Growth
Outside this model's universe or screens
 SURVYR. Barbell Momentum & T-Bill Shield
Outside this model's universe or screens
 SURVYR. Physical AI Grid & Power
Outside this model's universe or screens
 SURVYR. Long Book
Not in the current book

Earnings & events

NOC earningsReported Oct 20, 2026▲ Above estimates
Results · Before the open
EPS actual$7.89
EPS estimate$7.18
Surprise+9.9%
RevenueNot in our data yet

Revenue for this quarter is not in our data yet. It arrives with the quarterly filing.

Next report
Tue Jan 26, 2027Before the open
EPS consensus$7.93 range $7.47–$8.32
Revenue consensus$12.2B 17 analysts
Last 4 quarters · EPS vs estimate
Oct 20, 2026$7.89est $7.18+9.9%Above estimates
Jul 21, 2026$7.68est $6.82+12.7%Above estimates
Apr 21, 2026$6.14est $6.06+1.3%Above estimates
Jan 27, 2026$7.23est $6.96+3.8%Above estimates

In line = within 1% of the estimate.

Source: Yahoo Finance · refreshed 2026-10-24 09:14:01 ET
25-0125-0425-0725-1026-0126-0426-0726-100.008.15
EstimateActual (beat)Actual (miss)

Quarterly revenue

QuarterRevenueYoY
2026-06-30$10.9B+5.1%
2026-03-31$9.9B–
2025-12-31$11.7B–
2025-09-30$10.4B–
2025-06-30$10.4B–

Recent dividends

2026-08-31: $2.470 · 2026-06-01: $2.470 · 2026-02-23: $2.310 · 2025-12-01: $2.310 · 2025-09-02: $2.310 · 2025-06-02: $2.310 · 2025-03-03: $2.060 · 2024-12-02: $2.060

News & catalysts

More news
What Just Happened To Lockheed Martin Stock?
Trefis · 21h ago
Lockheed Martin Rises 9% as Record Backlog Lifts Outlook; RTX Gains 2%, Northrop Grumman Advances 3%
24/7 Wall St. · Oct 22
Why Northrop Grumman Stock Rallied Today
Nasdaq · Oct 20
Northrop Grumman: 3 Key Takeaways for Long-Term Investors
Nasdaq · Oct 20
Corporate Earnings Remain Solid Despite Geopolitical Uncertainty. Stocks Mostly Climbed.
International Business Times · Oct 20
Rating changes
Reiterated
2026-10-22 · Barclays reiterated Underweight on NOC
Reiterated
2026-10-21 · UBS reiterated Buy on NOC
Reiterated
2026-10-21 · BNP Paribas reiterated Outperform on NOC
Reiterated
2026-10-21 · Morgan Stanley reiterated Overweight on NOC
Reiterated
2026-10-21 · Guggenheim reiterated Buy on NOC
Reiterated
2026-10-21 · RBC Capital reiterated Sector Perform on NOC

Third-party analyst actions, not SURVYR.'s views. All rating changes

Insider trades
Welsh Mark A Iii
Director · 2026-08-03
Sell
$2.2K
Welsh Mark A Iii
Director · 2026-08-03
Sell
$1.1K
Welsh Mark A Iii
Director · 2026-08-03
Sell
$1.1K
Welsh Mark A Iii
Director · 2026-08-03
Sell
$1.1K
Welsh Mark A Iii
Director · 2026-08-03
Sell
$3.3K
Welsh Mark A Iii
Director · 2026-08-03
Sell
$5.5K
Welsh Mark A Iii
Director · 2026-08-03
Sell
$17.0K
Welsh Mark A Iii
Director · 2026-08-03
Sell
$6.0K
Welsh Mark A Iii
Director · 2026-08-03
Sell
$10.4K
Welsh Mark A Iii
Director · 2026-08-03
Sell
$4.4K
None
None · None
Sell
–
None
None · None
Sell
–

Stats refreshed 2026-10-24 09:14:01 ET from Yahoo Finance (yfinance). "–" means the data isn't available. Refresh now

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Systematic research · Not investment advice · Hypothetical unless marked Live · Data: Yahoo Finance (15-min delayed), SEC EDGAR, House Clerk · Important disclosures · Contact desk@coteau.app

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Coteau 0.9 · Oct 21, 2026