SURVYR

NRG

NRG Energy, Inc.
$96.97
+$1.70 (1.78%)Oct 28 close
UtilitiesS&P 500 CompareTechnicals
Model valuationLeans expensiveDCF base $-89
1M3M6M1Y2Y
-46%-31%-15%0%+15%Oct 2025Oct 2026Apr 202652w high $189.9652w low $93.36
NRGSPY
Wall St. Highest PT $270.00 (+178.4%) Wall St. Avg PT $179.00 (+84.6%)
$92$162$231$300$370POC $160Hi $270Avg $179
Underwater Drawdown %Max DD -49.5%Current -47.0%
0.0%-49.5%
Relative Strength vs SPY-57.0% vs SPYUnderperforming
+67%0%-67%
1W
−$2.83 (2.84%)
1M
−$0.03 (0.03%)
3M
−$26.82 (21.67%)
6M
−$51.06 (34.49%)
YTD
−$60.73 (38.51%)
1Y
−$73.68 (43.18%)

Chart

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Ratings & dials

1m · 5m · 15m · 1h · 4h · 1D

Analyst & Morningstar ratings

Consensus · Targets · Morningstar
Wall Street analyst consensus
SellHoldStrong Buy
Buy
17 analysts · mean score 1.53
1 = Strong Buy · 5 = Sell
Wall Street consensus
Analyst price targets
Current price$96.97
Average target$179.00
+$82.03 (+84.6%) upsideaverage target vs current price
CurrentAverageMedian
Low$104.00
Median$179.00
High$270.00
12-month Wall Street target range

Third-party ratings, not SURVYR.'s views.

Health check

Financial health
DistressGrey zoneSafe
Distress zone
Altman Z-score 1.4
Above 2.99 is the safe zone, below 1.81 the distress zone.
Quality
WeakAverageStrong
Average
Piotroski F-score 5 of 9
See the tests
  • ✓Positive net income
  • ✓Positive operating cash flow
  • ✗Return on assets improved
  • ✓Cash flow above net income
  • ✗Long-term debt / assets fell
  • ✓Current ratio improved
  • ✓No share dilution
  • ✗Gross margin improved
  • ✗Asset turnover improved

Computed by SURVYR. from the company's SEC filings (latest balance sheet Jun 30, 2026). Descriptive, not a forecast.

Key stats & company

Market value$21.0B
P/E (last 12 months)26.1
P/E (next 12 months, estimated)9.3
52-week range$93.36 – $189.96
Revenue growth (latest quarter vs a year ago)+11.0%
Dividend yield1.94%
Analyst consensusBuy (17)
Average analyst price target$179.00 (+85%)

What they do

NRG Energy, Inc. operates as an energy and home services company in the United States and Canada. It operates through the Texas, East, West/Other, Vivint Smart Home, and Corporate Activities segments. The company offers retail electricity, energy management, demand response and virtual power plant programs, carbon offsets, smart home security, and automation services.

Utilities · Utilities - Independent Power Producers
Valuation and fundamentals

Valuation & fundamentals

Bottom line
Leans expensive
Model read-out from the numbers below, not advice. Score -2 (DCF counts double).
▼DCF (base case)below the price by 192%
▲Forward P/E vs sector9.3x vs median 17.5x
•Piotroski F-score5/9
▼Altman Z1.4 (distress)
▼Net debt / EBITDA6.7x
▲Analyst target+85% (17 analysts)

Discounted cash flow

Bear
$-98
-201%
growth 0% · disc. 11.1% · term. 2.0%
Base
$-89
-192%
growth 5% · disc. 10.1% · term. 2.5%
Bull
$-78
-180%
growth 8% · disc. 9.1% · term. 3.0%

A DCF starts from trailing free cash flow, so it can overstate value if the last 12 months were unusually strong (or weak). Use the bear case or edit the starting cash flow if so.

Reverse DCFfor context, not a signal
Today's price assumes free cash flow grows about 34% a year for 10 years.
Implied
+34%/yr
FCF, last 3 yrs
n/a
FCF, last 5 yrs
-14%/yr
Revenue, last 3 yrs
-1%/yr
Revenue, last 5 yrs
+28%/yr
Same inputs as the DCF above: trailing free cash flow 0.3B, 10.1% discount rate, 2.5% growth after year 10, net debt and today's share count. Actual growth rates are compound annual rates from SEC annual filings through FY2025; "n/a" means too little history or a negative starting year.
Edit assumptions · recalculates instantly
Your value per share–

Free cash flow = operating cash flow − capital spending, trailing 12 months (TTM to 2026-06-30). Growth default: average of 3-year revenue CAGR and latest revenue growth, capped at 30%. Years 6–10 fade linearly to terminal growth. Discount rate = 4.25% risk-free assumption + beta 1.16 × 5% equity premium, kept within 7–13%. Bear: lower growth, +1 pt discount, 2% terminal. Bull: higher growth, −1 pt, 3%.

Multiples vs Utilities

P/E (trailing)
sector median 20.9× · 91st pct
 26.1×
pricier
Forward P/E
sector median 17.5× · 8th pct
 9.3×
cheaper
EV / EBITDA
sector median 12.9× · 37th pct
 12.4×
cheaper
Price / sales
sector median 3.0× · 4th pct
 0.6×
cheaper
Price / book
sector median 2.0×
 –
FCF yield
sector median 0.1% · 53rd pct
 1.7%
cheaper

Forward EPS $10.72 vs trailing $3.82 (+181% expected growth). Forward P/E uses analysts' next-12-month estimate.

Quality & financial health

Gross margin
59.3%
Operating margin
6.1%
FCF margin
1.1%
Net margin
2.6%
Return on equity
–
Return on invested capital
6.6%
Net debt / EBITDA
6.7×
Current ratio
1.0×
Interest cover
2.0×
Cash conversion (OCF/NI)
1.8×
Piotroski F-score 5/9 · last two fiscal years
✓ Positive net income✓ Positive operating cash flow✗ Return on assets improved✓ Cash flow above net income✗ Long-term debt / assets fell✓ Current ratio improved✓ No share dilution✗ Gross margin improved✗ Asset turnover improved

Altman Z-score 1.4 (distress zone; above 3.0 = safe, below 1.8 = distress). Not meaningful for banks and insurers.

Analysts

Mean target
$179
+85%
Analysts
17
Buy
Range
$104–$270
low – high
● price · ◆ mean target

Annual history

FYRevenueNet incomeFree cash flow
2025$30.7B$864.0M$766.0M
2024$28.1B$1.1B$1.8B
2023$28.8B$-202.0M$-819.0M
2022$31.5B$1.2B$-7.0M
2021$27.0B$2.2B$224.0M
2020$9.1B$510.0M$1.6B

From the company's 10-K filings via SEC XBRL. 3-year revenue CAGR -0.9%.

For information only · Important disclosures

Grades vs sector

Momentum
2nd percentile in sector
F
12-1 return: -43.7%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Growth
75th percentile in sector
B+
Revenue growth (YoY): +11.0%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Value
62nd percentile in sector
B-
Forward E/P: 10.7% · EBITDA/EV: 7.1%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Profitability
51st percentile in sector
C+
Profit margin: +2.6% · Return on equity: +23.8%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Revisions
Not enough data yet
–
EPS estimate change, 30 days (current FY): –
30-day change in analysts' current-year EPS estimate; graded across covered stocks.

Systematic Models

Held by 2 of 7 live models: SURVYR. Barbell Momentum & T-Bill Shield, SURVYR. Physical AI Grid & Power.

SURVYR. Barbell Momentum & T-Bill Shield
5.0% of the book · Mid-Cap RS & EPS Leaders (75%) sleeve · ranked 3 of 160
 HeldSURVYR. Physical AI Grid & Power
7.0% of the book · Nuclear & Baseload Power (30%) sleeve · ranked 3 of 160
 HeldQuality Growth
Outside this model's universe or screens
 Momentum Top 15
ranked 476 of 499 · 12-month momentum -31.2%
 Momentum Blend
Not in the current book
 New Highs Growth
Outside this model's universe or screens
 SURVYR. Long Book
Not in the current book
Why it's in the SURVYR. Barbell Momentum & T-Bill Shield #3 of 160

Qualified on +54% 6M RS, aggressive share cannibals + data-center power uprates. Ranked 3rd of 160 at the 2026-10-01 rebalance.

What would knock it out: Drops out if it falls outside the top 16 at the next rebalance (Oct 30).

Why it's in the SURVYR. Physical AI Grid & Power #3 of 160

Qualified on 7.0% weight, brownfield data-center powered land + free cash flow yield. Ranked 3rd of 160 at the 2026-10-01 rebalance.

What would knock it out: Drops out if it falls outside the top 14 at the next rebalance (Oct 30).

Earnings & events

NRG earningsNext report in 12 days
Next report · quarter Sep 2026
Mon Nov 9, 2026Before the open
EPS consensus$3.04
Revenue consensus–
Last 4 quarters · EPS vs estimate
Aug 4, 2026$1.49est $1.74−14.4%Below estimates
May 6, 2026$1.49est $1.73−14.0%Below estimates
Feb 24, 2026$1.04est $0.89+16.4%Above estimates
Nov 6, 2025$2.78est $2.13+30.7%Above estimates

In line = within 1% of the estimate.

Source: Yahoo Finance · report time: Nasdaq earnings calendar · refreshed 2026-10-27 17:58:34 ET
24-1125-0225-0525-0825-1126-0226-0526-080.002.78
EstimateActual (beat)Actual (miss)

News & catalysts

More news
If You Invested $1,000 in NRG Energy 10 Years Ago, Even This Year’s Sell-Off Wouldn’t Erase Your Gains
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Trefis · Oct 22
What Could Surprise Vistra Stock Investors On The Upside?
Trefis · Oct 20
NRG Stock Slides Following Price Target Cuts From Jefferies, Seaport Research – A Look At Some Key Highlights
Stocktwits · Oct 19
Stock Market Midday, Oct. 19: Tech Stocks Rebound as AI Confidence Returns
Motley Fool · Oct 19

Research

Coteau Barbell Momentum & T-Bill Shield: rebalance of Oct 1, 2026Oct 26, 2026Coteau Physical AI Grid & Power: rebalance of Oct 1, 2026Oct 26, 2026
Insider trades
Spencer Gerald Alfred
SVP & Chief Accounting Officer · 2026-09-08
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Stats refreshed 2026-10-27 17:58:34 ET from Yahoo Finance (yfinance). "–" means the data isn't available. Refresh now

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Systematic research · Not investment advice · Hypothetical unless marked Live · Data: Yahoo Finance (15-min delayed), SEC EDGAR, House Clerk · Important disclosures · Contact desk@coteau.app

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Coteau 0.9 · Oct 21, 2026