SURVYR
13F +15% · SURVEYOR Institutional Filing Alert

Surveyor Capital (Citadel L/S Arm) (Citadel Fundamental Equities Arm) added to NTRA (+15% shares QoQ · 14.0% of 13F portfolio)

Form 13F-HR institutional holdings disclosure · Filed 2026-10-17

NTRA

Natera, Inc.
$424.42
+$13.60 (3.31%)Oct 28 close
Healthcare CompareTechnicals
-7%+26%+60%+94%+128%Oct 2025Oct 2026Apr 202652w high $437.4152w low $181.00
NTRASPY
Wall St. Highest PT $500.00 (+17.8%) Wall St. Avg PT $409.57 (-3.5%)
$183$266$349$432$515POC $209Hi $500Avg $410
Underwater Drawdown %Max DD -28.2%Current -0.3%
0.0%-28.2%
Relative Strength vs SPY+106.9% vs SPYOutperforming
+123%0%-123%
1W
+$11.04 (2.67%)
1M
+$12.65 (3.07%)
3M
+$170.60 (67.21%)
6M
+$229.67 (117.93%)
YTD
+$195.33 (85.26%)
1Y
+$234.85 (123.89%)

Chart

Loading live chart…

Ratings & dials

1m · 5m · 15m · 1h · 4h · 1D

Analyst & Morningstar ratings

Consensus · Targets · Morningstar
Wall Street analyst consensus
SellHoldStrong Buy
Strong Buy
22 analysts · mean score 1.39
1 = Strong Buy · 5 = Sell
Wall Street consensus
Analyst price targets
Current price$424.42
Average target$409.57
−$14.85 (−3.5%) downsideaverage target vs current price
CurrentAverageMedian
Low$280.00
Median$409.57
High$500.00
12-month Wall Street target range

Third-party ratings, not SURVYR.'s views.

Health check

Financial health
DistressGrey zoneSafe
Safe zone
Altman Z-score 41.6
Above 2.99 is the safe zone, below 1.81 the distress zone.
Quality
WeakAverageStrong
Average
Piotroski F-score 4 of 9
See the tests
  • ✗Positive net income
  • ✓Positive operating cash flow
  • ✓Return on assets improved
  • ✓Cash flow above net income
  • ✓Long-term debt / assets fell
  • ✗Current ratio improved
  • ✗No share dilution
  • ✗Gross margin improved
  • ✗Asset turnover improved

Computed by SURVYR. from the company's SEC filings (latest balance sheet Jun 30, 2026). Descriptive, not a forecast.

Key stats & company

Market value$58.5B
P/E (next 12 months, estimated)-1,762.1
52-week range$181.00 – $437.41
Revenue growth (latest quarter vs a year ago)+37.7%
Dividend yieldNo dividend
Analyst consensusStrong Buy (22)
Average analyst price target$409.57 (-3%)

What they do

Natera, Inc., a diagnostics company, engages in the development and commercialization of molecular testing services worldwide. It offers Signatera, a personalized ctDNA blood test for MRD assessment, early recurrence monitoring. The company also provides Panorama, a non-invasive prenatal test; Horizon, a carrier screening test.

Healthcare · Diagnostics & Research
Valuation and fundamentals

Valuation & fundamentals

Bottom line
Leans expensive
Model read-out from the numbers below, not advice. Score -2 (DCF counts double).
▼DCF (base case)below the price by 92%
•Piotroski F-score4/9
▲Altman Z41.6 (safe)
•Analyst target-3% (22 analysts)

Discounted cash flow

Bear
$18
-96%
growth 18% · disc. 12.7% · term. 2.0%
Base
$33
-92%
growth 30% · disc. 11.7% · term. 2.5%
Bull
$54
-87%
growth 38% · disc. 10.7% · term. 3.0%

A DCF starts from trailing free cash flow, so it can overstate value if the last 12 months were unusually strong (or weak). Use the bear case or edit the starting cash flow if so.

Reverse DCFfor context, not a signal
Today's price assumes free cash flow grows more than 50% a year for 10 years.
Implied
>50%/yr
FCF, last 3 yrs
n/a
FCF, last 5 yrs
n/a
Revenue, last 3 yrs
+41%/yr
Revenue, last 5 yrs
+43%/yr
Same inputs as the DCF above: trailing free cash flow 0.1B, 11.7% discount rate, 2.5% growth after year 10, net cash and today's share count. Actual growth rates are compound annual rates from SEC annual filings through FY2025; "n/a" means too little history or a negative starting year.
Edit assumptions · recalculates instantly
Your value per share–

Free cash flow = operating cash flow − capital spending, trailing 12 months (TTM to 2026-06-30). Growth default: average of 3-year revenue CAGR and latest revenue growth, capped at 30%. Years 6–10 fade linearly to terminal growth. Discount rate = 4.25% risk-free assumption + beta 1.50 × 5% equity premium, kept within 7–13%. Bear: lower growth, +1 pt discount, 2% terminal. Bull: higher growth, −1 pt, 3%.

Multiples vs sector

Forward EPS $-0.23 vs trailing $-1.35. Forward P/E uses analysts' next-12-month estimate.

Quality & financial health

Gross margin
94.0%
Operating margin
-10.7%
FCF margin
3.1%
Net margin
-7.1%
Return on equity
-10.6%
Return on invested capital
-21.0%
Net debt / EBITDA
–
Current ratio
3.0×
Interest cover
–
Cash conversion (OCF/NI)
–
Piotroski F-score 4/9 · last two fiscal years
✗ Positive net income✓ Positive operating cash flow✓ Return on assets improved✓ Cash flow above net income✓ Long-term debt / assets fell✗ Current ratio improved✗ No share dilution✗ Gross margin improved✗ Asset turnover improved

Altman Z-score 41.6 (safe zone; above 3.0 = safe, below 1.8 = distress). Not meaningful for banks and insurers.

Analysts

Mean target
$410
-3%
Analysts
22
Strong Buy
Range
$280–$500
low – high
● price · ◆ mean target

Annual history

FYRevenueNet incomeFree cash flow
2025$2.3B$-208.2M$109.1M
2024$1.7B$-190.4M$69.2M
2023$1.1B$-434.8M$-286.2M
2022$820.2M$-547.8M$-479.2M
2021$625.5M$-471.7M$-376.3M
2020$391.0M$-229.7M$-202.1M

From the company's 10-K filings via SEC XBRL. 3-year revenue CAGR +41.1%.

For information only · Important disclosures

Grades vs sector

No sector grades for NTRA yet. Grades rank S&P 1500 stocks within their sector and refresh after each daily data run, so a stock outside that index or newly covered has none.

Systematic Models

Not held by any of our 7 live models right now.

Quality Growth
Outside this model's universe or screens
Momentum Top 15
Outside this model's universe or screens
Momentum Blend
Not in the current book
New Highs Growth
Outside this model's universe or screens
SURVYR. Barbell Momentum & T-Bill Shield
Outside this model's universe or screens
SURVYR. Physical AI Grid & Power
Outside this model's universe or screens
SURVYR. Long Book
Not in the current book

Earnings & events

NTRA earningsNext report in 7 days
Next report · quarter Sep 2026
Thu Nov 5, 2026Time not confirmed
EPS consensus-$0.28
Revenue consensus–
Last 4 quarters · EPS vs estimate
Aug 6, 2026-$0.47est -$0.53+12.0%Above estimates
May 7, 2026-$0.60est -$0.55−8.5%Below estimates
Feb 26, 2026$0.36est -$0.53+167.5%Above estimates
Nov 6, 2025-$0.64est -$0.35−80.7%Below estimates

In line = within 1% of the estimate.

Source: Yahoo Finance · refreshed 2026-10-27 17:48:58 ET
24-1125-0225-0525-0825-1126-0226-0526-08-0.740.36
EstimateActual (beat)Actual (miss)

News & catalysts

More news
Natera (NTRA) Stock Could Be 32% Below Fair Value On ESMO Data
Simply Wall St. · 9h ago
NTRA Q3 Earnings on Deck: Will Signatera Volume Growth Drive Results?
Zacks · 16h ago
How Investors Are Reacting To Natera (NTRA) Signatera Clinical And Regulatory Wins
Simply Wall St. · 16h ago
Natera (NTRA) Posts Stronger Signatera Data, Is The Stock Fully Priced?
Simply Wall St. · 17h ago
Can You Still Buy Tempus AI Stock Today?
Trefis · 17h ago
Insider trades
Sheena Jonathan
Director · 2026-10-21
Sell
$68.8K
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Sell
$51.6K
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$87.0K
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$248.8K
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$257.0K
Sheena Jonathan
Director · 2026-10-21
Sell
$392.7K
Sheena Jonathan
Director · 2026-10-21
Sell
$81.3K
Sheena Jonathan
Director · 2026-10-16
Sell
$40.1K
Sheena Jonathan
Director · 2026-10-16
Sell
$32.5K
Sheena Jonathan
Director · 2026-10-16
Sell
$36.3K
Sheena Jonathan
Director · 2026-10-16
Sell
$24.1K

Stats refreshed 2026-10-27 17:48:58 ET from Yahoo Finance (yfinance). "–" means the data isn't available. Refresh now

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Systematic research · Not investment advice · Hypothetical unless marked Live · Data: Yahoo Finance (15-min delayed), SEC EDGAR, House Clerk · Important disclosures · Contact desk@coteau.app

Coteau 0.9 · Oct 21, 2026