SURVYR
13F +18% · EXODUSPOINT Institutional Filing Alert

ExodusPoint Capital Management (Michael Gelband & Hyung Lee) added to NVDA (+18% shares QoQ · 14.0% of 13F portfolio)

Form 13F-HR institutional holdings disclosure · Filed 2026-10-17

ExodusPoint Holdings › All Filing Alerts › SEC Filing ↗

NVDA

NVIDIA Corporation
$217.94
+$1.94 (0.90%)Oct 27 close
Information TechnologyS&P 500 CompareTechnicals
Model valuationRoughly fairly valuedDCF base $178
1M3M6M1Y2Y
-14%-4%+7%+17%+27%Oct 2025Oct 2026Apr 202652w high $243.3752w low $164.27
NVDASPY
Wall St. Highest PT $515.00 (+136.3%) Wall St. Avg PT $328.72 (+50.8%)
$165$256$348$439$530POC $183Hi $515Avg $329
Underwater Drawdown %Max DD -20.2%Current -8.9%
0.0%-20.2%
Relative Strength vs SPY+0.6% vs SPYOutperforming
+15%0%-15%
1W
+$1.47 (0.68%)
1M
−$7.13 (3.17%)
3M
+$21.15 (10.75%)
6M
+$5.26 (2.47%)
YTD
+$31.88 (17.13%)
1Y
+$26.91 (14.09%)

Chart

Loading live chart…

Ratings & dials

1m · 5m · 15m · 1h · 4h · 1D

Analyst & Morningstar ratings

Consensus · Targets · Morningstar
Wall Street analyst consensus
SellHoldStrong Buy
Strong Buy
62 analysts · mean score 1.29
1 = Strong Buy · 5 = Sell
Strong Buy4979%
Buy1016%
Hold23%
Underperform00%
Sell12%
Wall Street consensus · as of Oct 22, 2026
Analyst price targets
Current price$217.94
Average target$328.72
+$110.78 (+50.8%) upsideaverage target vs current price
CurrentAverageMedian
Low$180.00
Median$315.00
High$515.00
12-month Wall Street target range · as of Oct 21, 2026

Third-party ratings, not SURVYR.'s views.

Health check

Financial health
DistressGrey zoneSafe
Safe zone
Altman Z-score 39.7
Above 2.99 is the safe zone, below 1.81 the distress zone.
Quality
WeakAverageStrong
Average
Piotroski F-score 4 of 9
See the tests
  • ✓Positive net income
  • ✓Positive operating cash flow
  • ✗Return on assets improved
  • ✗Cash flow above net income
  • ✓Long-term debt / assets fell
  • ✗Current ratio improved
  • ✓No share dilution
  • ✗Gross margin improved
  • ✗Asset turnover improved

Computed by SURVYR. from the company's SEC filings (latest balance sheet Jul 26, 2026). Descriptive, not a forecast.

Key stats & company

Market value$5.4T
P/E (last 12 months)28.1
P/E (next 12 months, estimated)13.9
52-week range$164.27 – $243.37
Revenue growth (latest quarter vs a year ago)+105.9%
Dividend yield0.46%
Analyst consensusStrong Buy (59)
Average analyst price target$328.72 (+51%)

What they do

NVIDIA Corporation operates as a data center scale AI infrastructure company in the United States, Taiwan, China, Hong Kong, Europe, and internationally. It operates through Compute & Networking, and Graphics segments. The Compute & Networking segment provides data center accelerated computing and networking platforms and artificial intelligence solutions and software, and automotive platforms and autonomous and electric vehicle solutions.

Technology · Semiconductors
Valuation and fundamentals

Valuation & fundamentals

Bottom line
Roughly fairly valued
Model read-out from the numbers below, not advice. Score +0 (DCF counts double).
▼DCF (base case)below the price by 18%
▲Forward P/E vs sector13.9x vs median 17.3x
•Piotroski F-score4/9
▲Altman Z39.7 (safe)
▲Net debt / EBITDA-0.2x
▲Analyst target+51% (59 analysts)

Discounted cash flow

CyclicalValued on average-cycle margins
Bear
$87
-60%
growth 18% · disc. 14.0% · term. 2.0%
Base
$178
-18%
growth 30% · disc. 13.0% · term. 2.5%
Bull
$301
+38%
growth 38% · disc. 12.0% · term. 3.0%

Starting cash flow is mid-cycle: 36.8% average margin × current revenue = 111.6B (last 12 months: 134.2B at a 44% margin). On trailing cash flow the base case would be $213.

Reverse DCFfor context, not a signal
Today's price assumes free cash flow grows about 26% a year for 10 years.
Implied
+26%/yr
FCF, last 3 yrs
>150%/yr
FCF, last 5 yrs
+78%/yr
Revenue, last 3 yrs
+100%/yr
Revenue, last 5 yrs
+67%/yr
Same inputs as the DCF above: mid-cycle free cash flow 111.6B, 13.0% discount rate, 2.5% growth after year 10, net cash and today's share count. Actual growth rates are compound annual rates from SEC annual filings through FY2026; "n/a" means too little history or a negative starting year.
Edit assumptions · recalculates instantly
Your value per share–

Free cash flow = operating cash flow − capital spending, trailing 12 months (TTM to 2026-07-26). Growth default: average of 3-year revenue CAGR and latest revenue growth, capped at 30%. Years 6–10 fade linearly to terminal growth. Discount rate = 4.25% risk-free assumption + beta 2.22 × 5% equity premium, kept within 7–13%. Bear: lower growth, +1 pt discount, 2% terminal. Bull: higher growth, −1 pt, 3%.

Multiples vs Information Technology

P/E (trailing)
sector median 35.4× · 37th pct
 28.1×
cheaper
Forward P/E
sector median 17.3× · 31st pct
 13.9×
cheaper
EV / EBITDA
sector median 20.3× · 60th pct
 26.4×
pricier
Price / sales
sector median 4.8× · 91st pct
 17.7×
pricier
Price / book
sector median 5.2× · 92nd pct
 23.4×
pricier
FCF yield
sector median 3.6% · 40th pct
 2.5%
pricier

Forward EPS $15.91 vs trailing $7.91 (+101% expected growth). Forward P/E uses analysts' next-12-month estimate.

Backlog (remaining performance obligations)

RPO
$3.2B
as of 2026-07-26
vs a year ago
+68%
YoY
× TTM revenue
0.01×
coverage
24-10
25-01
25-04
25-07
25-10
26-01
26-04
26-07

Contracted revenue not yet recognized, from SEC filings (XBRL tag RevenueRemainingPerformanceObligation).

Quality & financial health

Gross margin
74.7%
Operating margin
65.2%
FCF margin
44.3%
Net margin
63.7%
Return on equity
84.2%
Return on invested capital
86.9%
Net debt / EBITDA
-0.2×
Current ratio
4.6×
Interest cover
425.8×
Cash conversion (OCF/NI)
0.7×
Piotroski F-score 4/9 · last two fiscal years
✓ Positive net income✓ Positive operating cash flow✗ Return on assets improved✗ Cash flow above net income✓ Long-term debt / assets fell✗ Current ratio improved✓ No share dilution✗ Gross margin improved✗ Asset turnover improved

Altman Z-score 39.7 (safe zone; above 3.0 = safe, below 1.8 = distress). Not meaningful for banks and insurers.

Analysts

Mean target
$329
+51%
Analysts
59
Strong Buy
Range
$180–$515
low – high
● price · ◆ mean target

Annual history

FYRevenueNet incomeFree cash flow
2026$215.9B$120.1B$102.7B
2025$130.5B$72.9B$64.1B
2024$60.9B$29.8B$28.1B
2023$27.0B$4.4B$5.6B
2022$26.9B$9.8B$9.1B
2021$16.7B$4.3B$5.8B

From the company's 10-K filings via SEC XBRL. 3-year revenue CAGR +100.0%.

For information only · Important disclosures

Grades vs sector

Momentum
44th percentile in sector
C
12-1 return: +13.1%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Growth
97th percentile in sector
A+
Revenue growth (YoY): +105.9%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Value
55th percentile in sector
C+
Forward E/P: 7.4% · EBITDA/EV: 3.9%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Profitability
97th percentile in sector
A+
Profit margin: +63.7% · Return on equity: +117.2%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Revisions
Not enough data yet
–
EPS estimate change, 30 days (current FY): –
30-day change in analysts' current-year EPS estimate; graded across covered stocks.

Systematic Models

Held by 3 of 7 live models: Quality Growth, SURVYR. Physical AI Grid & Power, SURVYR. Long Book.

Quality Growth
6.7% of the book · ranked 3 of 360
 HeldSURVYR. Physical AI Grid & Power
8.0% of the book · Compute & Silicon Anchor (15%) sleeve · ranked 13 of 160
 HeldSURVYR. Long Book
4.6% of the book · Core sleeve
 HeldMomentum Top 15
ranked 188 of 499 · 12-month momentum 18.5%
 Momentum Blend
Not in the current book
 New Highs Growth
ranked 63 of 589 · 12-month momentum 21.6%
 SURVYR. Barbell Momentum & T-Bill Shield
Outside this model's universe or screens
Why it's in the Quality Growth #3 of 360

Qualified on ROIC 65%, revenue +83% (TTM), growth accelerating +27.7 pts, latest quarter 2026-07-26. Ranked 3rd of 360 at the 2026-09-30 rebalance.

What would knock it out: Drops out if it falls outside the top 15 at the next rebalance (Oct 30). In the latest preview (2026-10-26) it ranks 4th.

Why it's in the SURVYR. Physical AI Grid & Power #13 of 160

Qualified on 8.0% weight, sovereign & hyperscale AI factory silicon anchor. Ranked 13th of 160 at the 2026-10-01 rebalance.

What would knock it out: Drops out if it falls outside the top 14 at the next rebalance (Oct 30).

Why it's in the SURVYR. Long Book

Picked for this research portfolio at the Oct 21, 2026 close (Core group, AI).

What would knock it out: Weights are fixed and there is no rebalance rule. Any change would be dated and shown here.

Earnings & events

NVDA earningsNext report in 21 days
Next report
Tue Nov 17, 2026Time not confirmed
EPS consensus$2.47
Revenue consensus–
Last 4 quarters · EPS vs estimate
Aug 26, 2026$2.22est $2.09+6.2%Above estimates
May 20, 2026$1.87est $1.77+5.5%Above estimates
Feb 25, 2026$1.62est $1.54+5.3%Above estimates
Nov 19, 2025$1.30est $1.26+3.5%Above estimates

In line = within 1% of the estimate.

Source: Yahoo Finance · refreshed 2026-10-26 17:59:49 ET
24-1125-0225-0525-0825-1126-0226-0526-080.002.22
EstimateActual (beat)Actual (miss)

News & catalysts

More news
Warren Buffett's Successor, Greg Abel, Has $114.4 Billion Invested in These 3 Tech Stocks. None Is a Pure-Play Artificial Intelligence (AI) Company.
Motley Fool · 18m ago
Goldman Sachs Sees Investors De-Risking From AI Stocks. At 63, She Finds the Same Crowded Trade Inside Her $900,000 401(k)
24/7 Wall St. · 20m ago
Nvidia Stock Is Down 12% From Its High. Here's What History Says Happens Next.
Nasdaq · 52m ago
Meta Stocks Move Lower With Supplier Funding and Deferred Equity Proceeds
GuruFocus.com · 57m ago
S&P 500 Sell-Off: Is Now the Right Time to Buy the Dip?
Motley Fool · 1h ago

Research

Coteau Physical AI Grid & Power: rebalance of Oct 1, 2026Oct 26, 2026Quality Growth: rebalance of Sep 30, 2026Oct 22, 2026
Insider trades
Teter Timothy S.
EVP, General Counsel and Sec · 2026-09-21
Sell
$1.0M
Teter Timothy S.
EVP, General Counsel and Sec · 2026-09-21
Sell
$3.0M
Teter Timothy S.
EVP, General Counsel and Sec · 2026-09-21
Sell
$2.8M
Stevens Mark A
Director · 2026-09-18
Sell
$2.2M
Stevens Mark A
Director · 2026-09-18
Sell
$297.9M
Kress Colette
EVP & Chief Financial Officer · 2026-09-17
Sell
$2.2M
Kress Colette
EVP & Chief Financial Officer · 2026-09-17
Sell
$4.5M
Kress Colette
EVP & Chief Financial Officer · 2026-09-17
Sell
$1.0M
Stevens Mark A
Director · 2026-09-04
Sell
$1.1M
Stevens Mark A
Director · 2026-09-04
Sell
$42.6M
Stevens Mark A
Director · 2026-09-04
Sell
$55.0M
Stevens Mark A
Director · 2026-09-04
Sell
$45.4M

Stats refreshed 2026-10-26 17:59:49 ET from Yahoo Finance (yfinance). "–" means the data isn't available. Refresh now

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Systematic research · Not investment advice · Hypothetical unless marked Live · Data: Yahoo Finance (15-min delayed), SEC EDGAR, House Clerk · Important disclosures · Contact desk@coteau.app

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Coteau 0.9 · Oct 21, 2026