SURVYR

PARR

Par Pacific Holdings, Inc.
$74.53
−$8.64 (10.39%)Oct 27 close
EnergyS&P 600 CompareTechnicals
-16%+19%+53%+88%+122%Oct 2025Oct 2026Apr 202652w high $90.7452w low $34.37
PARRSPY
Wall St. Highest PT $117.00 (+57.0%) Wall St. Avg PT $95.14 (+27.7%)
$35$56$78$99$121POC $37Hi $117Avg $95
Underwater Drawdown %Max DD -26.7%Current -17.1%
0.0%-26.7%
Relative Strength vs SPY+68.9% vs SPYOutperforming
+121%0%-121%
1W
−$10.58 (12.43%)
1M
−$2.93 (3.78%)
3M
−$4.56 (5.77%)
6M
+$11.92 (19.04%)
YTD
+$39.39 (112.09%)
1Y
+$33.67 (82.40%)

Chart

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Ratings & dials

1m · 5m · 15m · 1h · 4h · 1D

Analyst & Morningstar ratings

Consensus · Targets · Morningstar
Wall Street analyst consensus
SellHoldStrong Buy
Buy
7 analysts · mean score 2.14
1 = Strong Buy · 5 = Sell
Strong Buy229%
Buy229%
Hold343%
Underperform00%
Sell00%
Wall Street consensus · as of Oct 21, 2026
Analyst price targets
Current price$74.53
Average target$95.14
+$20.61 (+27.7%) upsideaverage target vs current price
CurrentAverageMedian
Low$85.00
Median$91.00
High$117.00
12-month Wall Street target range · as of Oct 21, 2026
Recent analyst rating changes · 30
Downgrade
2026-10-15 · Goldman Sachs downgraded PARR from Buy to Neutral
Reiterated
2026-09-14 · Raymond James reiterated Outperform on PARR
Reiterated
2026-08-11 · Mizuho reiterated Outperform on PARR
Reiterated
2026-08-07 · TD Cowen reiterated Buy on PARR
Reiterated
2026-07-23 · Goldman Sachs reiterated Buy on PARR
Reiterated
2026-07-21 · TD Cowen reiterated Buy on PARR

Third-party ratings, not SURVYR.'s views.

Health check

Financial health
DistressGrey zoneSafe
Safe zone
Altman Z-score 4.3
Above 2.99 is the safe zone, below 1.81 the distress zone.
Quality
WeakAverageStrong
Average
Piotroski F-score 6 of 9
See the tests
  • ✓Positive net income
  • ✓Positive operating cash flow
  • ✓Return on assets improved
  • ✓Cash flow above net income
  • ✓Long-term debt / assets fell
  • ✗Current ratio improved
  • ✓No share dilution
  • ✗Gross margin improved
  • ✗Asset turnover improved

Computed by SURVYR. from the company's SEC filings (latest balance sheet Jun 30, 2026). Descriptive, not a forecast.

Key stats & company

Market value$3.9B
P/E (last 12 months)4.5
P/E (next 12 months, estimated)4.7
52-week range$34.37 – $90.74
Revenue growth (latest quarter vs a year ago)+56.8%
Dividend yieldNo dividend
Analyst consensusBuy (7)
Average analyst price target$95.14 (+28%)

What they do

Par Pacific Holdings, Inc., an energy company, provides renewable and conventional fuels in the United States. The company operates through three segments: Refining, Retail, and Logistics. The Refining segment owns and operates refineries that convert crude oil into gasoline, distillate, asphalt, and other products.

Energy · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Valuation and fundamentals

Valuation & fundamentals

Bottom line
Looks undervalued
Model read-out from the numbers below, not advice. Score +4 (DCF counts double).
▲DCF (base case)above the price by 106%
▲Forward P/E vs sector4.7x vs median 13.6x
•Piotroski F-score6/9
▲Altman Z4.3 (safe)
▲Net debt / EBITDA0.4x
▲Analyst target+28% (7 analysts)

Discounted cash flow

CyclicalValued on average-cycle margins
Bear
$59
-21%
growth 17% · disc. 9.0% · term. 2.0%
Base
$153
+106%
growth 29% · disc. 8.0% · term. 2.5%
Bull
$321
+331%
growth 36% · disc. 7.0% · term. 3.0%

Starting cash flow is mid-cycle: 1.2% average margin × current revenue = 0.1B (last 12 months: 0.4B at a 5% margin). On trailing cash flow the base case would be $618.

Reverse DCFfor context, not a signal
Today's price assumes free cash flow grows about 13% a year for 10 years.
Implied
+13%/yr
FCF, last 3 yrs
-9%/yr
FCF, last 5 yrs
n/a
Revenue, last 3 yrs
+1%/yr
Revenue, last 5 yrs
+19%/yr
Same inputs as the DCF above: mid-cycle free cash flow 0.1B, 8.0% discount rate, 2.5% growth after year 10, net debt and today's share count. Actual growth rates are compound annual rates from SEC annual filings through FY2025; "n/a" means too little history or a negative starting year.
Edit assumptions · recalculates instantly
Your value per share–

Free cash flow = operating cash flow − capital spending, trailing 12 months (TTM to 2026-06-30). Growth default: average of 3-year revenue CAGR and latest revenue growth, capped at 30%. Years 6–10 fade linearly to terminal growth. Discount rate = 4.25% risk-free assumption + beta 0.75 × 5% equity premium, kept within 7–13%. Bear: lower growth, +1 pt discount, 2% terminal. Bull: higher growth, −1 pt, 3%.

Multiples vs Energy

P/E (trailing)
sector median 18.1× · 0th pct
4.5×
cheaper
Forward P/E
sector median 13.6× · 5th pct
4.7×
cheaper
EV / EBITDA
sector median 8.1× · 3rd pct
3.4×
cheaper
Price / sales
sector median 2.3× · 3rd pct
0.4×
cheaper
Price / book
sector median 1.9× · 51st pct
1.9×
pricier
FCF yield
sector median 7.6% · 66th pct
10.7%
cheaper

Forward EPS $16.35 vs trailing $17.13 (-5% expected growth). Forward P/E uses analysts' next-12-month estimate.

Quality & financial health

Gross margin
–
Operating margin
13.4%
FCF margin
4.8%
Net margin
9.9%
Return on equity
43.2%
Return on invested capital
35.0%
Net debt / EBITDA
0.4×
Current ratio
1.8×
Interest cover
16.9×
Cash conversion (OCF/NI)
0.6×
Piotroski F-score 6/9 · last two fiscal years
✓ Positive net income✓ Positive operating cash flow✓ Return on assets improved✓ Cash flow above net income✓ Long-term debt / assets fell✗ Current ratio improved✓ No share dilution✗ Gross margin improved✗ Asset turnover improved

Altman Z-score 4.3 (safe zone; above 3.0 = safe, below 1.8 = distress). Not meaningful for banks and insurers.

Analysts

Mean target
$95
+28%
Analysts
7
Buy
Range
$85–$117
low – high
● price · ◆ mean target

Annual history

FYRevenueNet incomeFree cash flow
2025$7.5B$369.4M$296.5M
2024$8.0B$-33.3M$-51.8M
2023$8.2B$728.6M$496.9M
2022$7.3B$364.2M$399.6M
2021$4.7B$-81.3M$-57.2M
2020$3.1B$-409.1M$-100.7M

From the company's 10-K filings via SEC XBRL. 3-year revenue CAGR +0.6%.

For information only · Important disclosures

Grades vs sector

Momentum
91st percentile in sector
A
12-1 return: +104.2%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Growth
89th percentile in sector
A
Revenue growth (YoY): +56.8%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Value
94th percentile in sector
A
Forward E/P: 18.8% · EBITDA/EV: 24.8%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Profitability
74th percentile in sector
B+
Profit margin: +9.9% · Return on equity: +53.5%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Revisions
Not enough data yet
–
EPS estimate change, 30 days (current FY): –
30-day change in analysts' current-year EPS estimate; graded across covered stocks.

Systematic Models

Held by 1 of 7 live models: New Highs Growth.

New Highs Growth
4.0% of the book · ranked 12 of 589
Held
Quality Growth
Outside this model's universe or screens
Momentum Top 15
Outside this model's universe or screens
Momentum Blend
Not in the current book
SURVYR. Barbell Momentum & T-Bill Shield
Outside this model's universe or screens
SURVYR. Physical AI Grid & Power
Outside this model's universe or screens
SURVYR. Long Book
Not in the current book
Why it's in the New Highs Growth #12 of 589

Qualified on Energy & Power, -6% from 52-week high, revenue +57% y/y, 12-1 momentum +123%. Ranked 12th of 589 at the 2026-09-30 rebalance.

What would knock it out: Drops out if it falls outside the top 25 at the next rebalance (Oct 30). In the latest preview (2026-10-27) it is outside the top 25.

Earnings & events

PARR earningsNext report in 6 days
Next report · quarter Sep 2026
Tue Nov 3, 2026After the close
EPS consensus$6.63 range $6.49–$6.78
Revenue consensus$2.2B 6 analysts
Last 4 quarters · EPS vs estimate
Aug 4, 2026$10.10est $8.15+23.9%Above estimates
May 5, 2026$0.78est $0.99−21.0%Below estimates
Feb 24, 2026$1.17est $1.28−8.5%Below estimates
Nov 4, 2025$5.95est $1.96+202.9%Above estimates

In line = within 1% of the estimate.

Source: Yahoo Finance · report time: Nasdaq earnings calendar · refreshed 2026-10-25 14:52:09 ET
24-1125-0225-0525-0825-1126-0226-0526-08-0.9710.10
EstimateActual (beat)Actual (miss)

Quarterly revenue

QuarterRevenueYoY
2026-06-30$3.0B+56.8%
2026-03-31$1.8B–
2025-12-31$1.8B–
2025-09-30$2.0B–
2025-06-30$1.9B–

News & catalysts

More news
Tuesday Sector Laggards: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing, Paper & Forest Products
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Zacks · Oct 23
Valero Energy Gears Up to Report Q3 Earnings: What's in the Cards?
Zacks · Oct 16
Is HF Sinclair Stock a Buy at Elevated Valuation Levels?
Zacks · Oct 16

Research

New Highs Growth: rebalance of Sep 30, 2026Oct 22, 2026
Rating changes
Downgrade
2026-10-15 · Goldman Sachs downgraded PARR from Buy to Neutral
Reiterated
2026-09-14 · Raymond James reiterated Outperform on PARR
Reiterated
2026-08-11 · Mizuho reiterated Outperform on PARR
Reiterated
2026-08-07 · TD Cowen reiterated Buy on PARR
Reiterated
2026-07-23 · Goldman Sachs reiterated Buy on PARR
Reiterated
2026-07-21 · TD Cowen reiterated Buy on PARR

Third-party analyst actions, not SURVYR.'s views. All rating changes

Insider trades
Pitkin Terrill
SVP, Planning & Commercial · 2026-09-11
Sell
$322.4K
Clossey Timothy
Director · 2026-09-10
Sell
$921.5K
Monteleone William
Director, President and CEO · 2026-09-03
Sell
$2.2M
Monteleone William
Director, President and CEO · 2026-09-02
Sell
$3.3M
Pate William
Director · 2026-08-18
Sell
$3.4M
Pate William
Director · 2026-08-18
Sell
$1.7M
Pate William
Director · 2026-08-18
Sell
$495.9K
Guerra Ivan Daniel
Chief Accounting Officer · 2026-08-17
Sell
$175.7K
Clossey Timothy
Director · 2026-08-17
Sell
$450.1K
Pate William
Director · 2026-08-17
Sell
$1.7M
Clossey Timothy
Director · 2026-08-14
Sell
$653.2K
Mattiussi Danielle
See Remarks · 2026-08-07
Sell
$220.6K

Stats refreshed 2026-10-25 14:52:09 ET from Yahoo Finance (yfinance). "–" means the data isn't available. Refresh now

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Systematic research · Not investment advice · Hypothetical unless marked Live · Data: Yahoo Finance (15-min delayed), SEC EDGAR, House Clerk · Important disclosures · Contact desk@coteau.app

Coteau 0.9 · Oct 21, 2026