SURVYR

PAYC

Paycom Software, Inc.
$261.94
−$6.31 (2.35%)Oct 27 close
IndustrialsS&P 600 CompareTechnicals
Model valuationLeans undervaluedDCF base $366
1M3M6M1Y2Y
-47%-26%-4%+17%+38%Oct 2025Oct 2026Apr 202652w high $264.4952w low $104.90
PAYCSPY
Wall St. Highest PT $286.00 (+9.2%) Wall St. Avg PT $222.59 (-15.0%)
$113$158$204$249$295POC $130Hi $286Avg $223
Underwater Drawdown %Max DD -43.0%Current -4.6%
0.0%-43.0%
Relative Strength vs SPY+18.5% vs SPYOutperforming
+54%0%-54%
1W
−$0.38 (0.14%)
1M
+$41.48 (18.82%)
3M
+$100.48 (62.24%)
6M
+$137.66 (110.77%)
YTD
+$103.70 (65.54%)
1Y
+$63.57 (32.05%)

Chart

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Ratings & dials

1m · 5m · 15m · 1h · 4h · 1D

Analyst & Morningstar ratings

Consensus · Targets · Morningstar
Wall Street analyst consensus
SellHoldStrong Buy
Hold
21 analysts · mean score 2.52
1 = Strong Buy · 5 = Sell
Strong Buy629%
Buy00%
Hold1362%
Underperform210%
Sell00%
Wall Street consensus · as of Oct 20, 2026
Analyst price targets
Current price$261.94
Average target$222.59
−$39.35 (−15.0%) downsideaverage target vs current price
CurrentAverageMedian
Low$160.00
Median$225.00
High$286.00
12-month Wall Street target range · as of Oct 13, 2026

Third-party ratings, not SURVYR.'s views.

Health check

Financial health
DistressGrey zoneSafe
Safe zone
Altman Z-score 3.1
Above 2.99 is the safe zone, below 1.81 the distress zone.
Quality
WeakAverageStrong
Average
Piotroski F-score 6 of 9
See the tests
  • ✓Positive net income
  • ✓Positive operating cash flow
  • ✗Return on assets improved
  • ✓Cash flow above net income
  • ✓Long-term debt / assets fell
  • ✗Current ratio improved
  • ✓No share dilution
  • ✓Gross margin improved
  • ✗Asset turnover improved

Computed by SURVYR. from the company's SEC filings (latest balance sheet Jun 30, 2026). Descriptive, not a forecast.

Key stats & company

Market value$11.8B
P/E (last 12 months)27.8
P/E (next 12 months, estimated)18.8
52-week range$104.90 – $264.49
Revenue growth (latest quarter vs a year ago)+9.8%
Dividend yield0.59%
Analyst consensusHold (17)
Average analyst price target$222.59 (-15%)

What they do

Paycom Software, Inc. provides cloud-based human capital management (HCM) solution delivered as software-as-a-service for small to mid-sized companies in the United States. The company offers functionality and data analytics that businesses need to manage the employment life cycle from recruitment to retirement. The company's HCM solution offers payroll applications comprising better employee transaction interface.

Technology · Software - Application
Valuation and fundamentals

Valuation & fundamentals

Bottom line
Leans undervalued
Model read-out from the numbers below, not advice. Score +1 (DCF counts double).
▲DCF (base case)above the price by 40%
•Forward P/E vs sector18.8x vs median 17.5x
•Piotroski F-score6/9
▲Altman Z3.1 (safe)
▲Net debt / EBITDA0.8x
▼Analyst target-15% (17 analysts)

Discounted cash flow

Bear
$217
-17%
growth 7% · disc. 9.4% · term. 2.0%
Base
$366
+40%
growth 12% · disc. 8.4% · term. 2.5%
Bull
$589
+125%
growth 15% · disc. 7.4% · term. 3.0%

A DCF starts from trailing free cash flow, so it can overstate value if the last 12 months were unusually strong (or weak). Use the bear case or edit the starting cash flow if so.

Reverse DCFfor context, not a signal
Today's price assumes free cash flow grows about 5% a year for 10 years.
Implied
+5%/yr
FCF, last 3 yrs
+21%/yr
FCF, last 5 yrs
+25%/yr
Revenue, last 3 yrs
+14%/yr
Revenue, last 5 yrs
+20%/yr
Same inputs as the DCF above: trailing free cash flow 0.6B, 8.4% discount rate, 2.5% growth after year 10, net debt and today's share count. Actual growth rates are compound annual rates from SEC annual filings through FY2025; "n/a" means too little history or a negative starting year.
Edit assumptions · recalculates instantly
Your value per share–

Free cash flow = operating cash flow − capital spending, trailing 12 months (TTM to 2026-06-30). Growth default: average of 3-year revenue CAGR and latest revenue growth, capped at 30%. Years 6–10 fade linearly to terminal growth. Discount rate = 4.25% risk-free assumption + beta 0.83 × 5% equity premium, kept within 7–13%. Bear: lower growth, +1 pt discount, 2% terminal. Bull: higher growth, −1 pt, 3%.

Multiples vs Industrials

P/E (trailing)
sector median 26.2× · 55th pct
 27.8×
pricier
Forward P/E
sector median 17.5× · 58th pct
 18.8×
pricier
EV / EBITDA
sector median 14.9× · 49th pct
 14.8×
cheaper
Price / sales
sector median 2.2× · 89th pct
 5.5×
pricier
Price / book
sector median 3.5× · 97th pct
 20.7×
pricier
FCF yield
sector median 4.6% · 54th pct
 4.9%
cheaper

Forward EPS $13.96 vs trailing $9.45 (+48% expected growth). Forward P/E uses analysts' next-12-month estimate.

Backlog (remaining performance obligations)

RPO
$2.0M
as of 2018-09-30
vs a year ago
–
YoY
× TTM revenue
0.00×
coverage
18-03
18-06
18-09

Contracted revenue not yet recognized, from SEC filings (XBRL tag RevenueRemainingPerformanceObligation).

Quality & financial health

Gross margin
83.7%
Operating margin
30.3%
FCF margin
26.9%
Net margin
22.8%
Return on equity
85.3%
Return on invested capital
36.3%
Net debt / EBITDA
0.8×
Current ratio
1.1×
Interest cover
39.8×
Cash conversion (OCF/NI)
1.6×
Piotroski F-score 6/9 · last two fiscal years
✓ Positive net income✓ Positive operating cash flow✗ Return on assets improved✓ Cash flow above net income✓ Long-term debt / assets fell✗ Current ratio improved✓ No share dilution✓ Gross margin improved✗ Asset turnover improved

Altman Z-score 3.1 (safe zone; above 3.0 = safe, below 1.8 = distress). Not meaningful for banks and insurers.

Analysts

Mean target
$223
-15%
Analysts
17
Hold
Range
$160–$286
low – high
● price · ◆ mean target

Annual history

FYRevenueNet incomeFree cash flow
2025$2.1B$453.4M$408.0M
2024$1.9B$502.0M$341.0M
2023$1.7B$340.8M$292.4M
2022$1.4B$281.4M$232.4M
2021$1.1B$196.0M$198.7M
2020$841.4M$143.5M$133.1M

From the company's 10-K filings via SEC XBRL. 3-year revenue CAGR +14.3%.

For information only · Important disclosures

Grades vs sector

Momentum
63rd percentile in sector
B-
12-1 return: +17.4%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Growth
51st percentile in sector
C+
Revenue growth (YoY): +9.8%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Value
43rd percentile in sector
C
Forward E/P: 5.5% · EBITDA/EV: 6.2%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Profitability
94th percentile in sector
A
Profit margin: +22.8% · Return on equity: +41.1%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Revisions
Not enough data yet
–
EPS estimate change, 30 days (current FY): –
30-day change in analysts' current-year EPS estimate; graded across covered stocks.

Systematic Models

Held by 1 of 7 live models: Momentum Blend.

Momentum Blend
5.4% of the book · Leaders sleeve
 HeldQuality Growth
Outside this model's universe or screens
 Momentum Top 15
Outside this model's universe or screens
 New Highs Growth
ranked 71 of 589 · 12-month momentum 10.6%
 SURVYR. Barbell Momentum & T-Bill Shield
Outside this model's universe or screens
 SURVYR. Physical AI Grid & Power
Outside this model's universe or screens
 SURVYR. Long Book
Not in the current book
Why it's in the Momentum Blend

In the Leaders sleeve: a fast grower breaking out near its highs after an earnings-style gap.

What would knock it out: Exits if it closes below its stop of $205.58; last close $261.94, 27% above it.

Earnings & events

PAYC earningsNext report in 8 days
Next report · quarter Sep 2026
Wed Nov 4, 2026After the close
EPS consensus$2.80
Revenue consensus–
Last 4 quarters · EPS vs estimate
Aug 5, 2026$2.78est $2.38+16.8%Above estimates
May 6, 2026$3.15est $2.99+5.4%Above estimates
Feb 11, 2026$2.45est $2.45+0.1%In line with estimates
Nov 5, 2025$1.94est $1.97−1.6%Below estimates

In line = within 1% of the estimate.

Source: Yahoo Finance · report time: Nasdaq earnings calendar · refreshed 2026-10-26 18:05:10 ET
24-1025-0225-0525-0825-1126-0226-0526-080.003.15
EstimateActual (beat)Actual (miss)

News & catalysts

More news
No recent headlines.

Research

Momentum Blend: rebalance of Sep 30, 2026Oct 22, 2026
Insider trades
Hadlock Terrell Shane
President/Chief Client Officer · 2026-08-28
Sell
$57.9K
Hadlock Terrell Shane
President/Chief Client Officer · 2026-08-27
Sell
$223.9K
Hadlock Terrell Shane
President/Chief Client Officer · 2026-08-27
Sell
$388.4K
None
None · None
Sell
–

Stats refreshed 2026-10-26 18:05:10 ET from Yahoo Finance (yfinance). "–" means the data isn't available. Refresh now

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Systematic research · Not investment advice · Hypothetical unless marked Live · Data: Yahoo Finance (15-min delayed), SEC EDGAR, House Clerk · Important disclosures · Contact desk@coteau.app

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