SURVYR

SUPN

Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
$40.96
+$0.19 (0.47%)Oct 27 close
Health CareS&P 600 CompareTechnicals
Model valuationRoughly fairly valuedDCF base $20
1M3M6M1Y2Y
-29%-18%-7%+4%+15%Oct 2025Oct 2026Apr 202652w high $59.6852w low $37.54
SUPNSPY
Wall St. Highest PT $67.00 (+63.6%) Wall St. Avg PT $60.50 (+47.7%)
$38$49$60$71$82POC $51Hi $67Avg $60
Underwater Drawdown %Max DD -33.5%Current -28.1%
0.0%-33.5%
Relative Strength vs SPY-35.8% vs SPYUnderperforming
+47%0%-47%
1W
−$0.27 (0.65%)
1M
−$1.70 (3.98%)
3M
−$6.77 (14.18%)
6M
−$7.73 (15.88%)
YTD
−$8.74 (17.59%)
1Y
−$11.76 (22.31%)

Chart

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Ratings & dials

1m · 5m · 15m · 1h · 4h · 1D

Analyst & Morningstar ratings

Consensus · Targets · Morningstar
Wall Street analyst consensus
SellHoldStrong Buy
Strong Buy
4 analysts · mean score 1.50
1 = Strong Buy · 5 = Sell
Strong Buy375%
Buy00%
Hold125%
Underperform00%
Sell00%
Wall Street consensus · as of Oct 21, 2026
Analyst price targets
Current price$40.96
Average target$60.50
+$19.54 (+47.7%) upsideaverage target vs current price
CurrentAverageMedian
Low$55.00
Median$60.00
High$67.00
12-month Wall Street target range · as of Oct 21, 2026
Recent analyst rating changes · 30
Reiterated
2026-07-09 · Cantor Fitzgerald reiterated Overweight on SUPN
Reiterated
2025-12-19 · Stifel reiterated Hold on SUPN
Initiated
2025-10-29 · B of A Securities started covering SUPN at Buy
Reiterated
2025-10-23 · TD Cowen reiterated Buy on SUPN
Upgrade
2025-10-09 · Piper Sandler upgraded SUPN from Neutral to Overweight
Reiterated
2025-09-30 · Cantor Fitzgerald reiterated Overweight on SUPN
All analyst rating changes ›

Third-party ratings, not SURVYR.'s views.

Health check

Financial health
DistressGrey zoneSafe
Safe zone
Altman Z-score 4.6
Above 2.99 is the safe zone, below 1.81 the distress zone.
Quality
WeakAverageStrong
Average
Piotroski F-score 4 of 9
See the tests
  • ✗Positive net income
  • ✓Positive operating cash flow
  • ✗Return on assets improved
  • ✓Cash flow above net income
  • ✓Long-term debt / assets fell
  • ✗Current ratio improved
  • ✗No share dilution
  • ✗Gross margin improved
  • ✓Asset turnover improved

Computed by SURVYR. from the company's SEC filings (latest balance sheet Jun 30, 2026). Descriptive, not a forecast.

Key stats & company

Market value$2.4B
P/E (next 12 months, estimated)9.5
52-week range$37.54 – $59.68
Revenue growth (latest quarter vs a year ago)+32.4%
Dividend yieldNo dividend
Analyst consensusStrong Buy (4)
Average analyst price target$60.50 (+48%)

What they do

Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, engages in the development and commercialization of products for the treatment of central nervous system (CNS) diseases in the United States. It offers Qelbree, a non-stimulant indicated for the treatment of attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD); GOCOVRI for the treatment of dyskinesia and levodopa/carbidopa in patients with Parkinson's Disease (PD).

Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
Valuation and fundamentals

Valuation & fundamentals

Bottom line
Roughly fairly valued
Model read-out from the numbers below, not advice. Score +0 (DCF counts double).
▼DCF (base case)below the price by 51%
▲Forward P/E vs sector9.5x vs median 18.0x
•Piotroski F-score4/9
▲Altman Z4.6 (safe)
▲Analyst target+48% (4 analysts)

Discounted cash flow

Bear
$11
-72%
growth 10% · disc. 8.0% · term. 2.0%
Base
$20
-51%
growth 17% · disc. 7.0% · term. 2.5%
Bull
$36
-12%
growth 22% · disc. 6.0% · term. 3.0%

A DCF starts from trailing free cash flow, so it can overstate value if the last 12 months were unusually strong (or weak). Use the bear case or edit the starting cash flow if so.

Reverse DCFfor context, not a signal
Today's price assumes free cash flow grows about 23% a year for 10 years.
Implied
+23%/yr
FCF, last 3 yrs
-27%/yr
FCF, last 5 yrs
-19%/yr
Revenue, last 3 yrs
+3%/yr
Revenue, last 5 yrs
+7%/yr
Same inputs as the DCF above: trailing free cash flow 0.0B, 7.0% discount rate, 2.5% growth after year 10, net cash and today's share count. Actual growth rates are compound annual rates from SEC annual filings through FY2025; "n/a" means too little history or a negative starting year.
Edit assumptions · recalculates instantly
Your value per share–

Free cash flow = operating cash flow − capital spending, trailing 12 months (TTM to 2026-06-30). Growth default: average of 3-year revenue CAGR and latest revenue growth, capped at 30%. Years 6–10 fade linearly to terminal growth. Discount rate = 4.25% risk-free assumption + beta 0.55 × 5% equity premium, kept within 7–13%. Bear: lower growth, +1 pt discount, 2% terminal. Bull: higher growth, −1 pt, 3%.

Multiples vs Health Care

P/E (trailing)
sector median 31.2×
 –
Forward P/E
sector median 18.0× · 13th pct
 9.5×
cheaper
EV / EBITDA
sector median 16.2×
 –
Price / sales
sector median 3.3× · 46th pct
 2.9×
cheaper
Price / book
sector median 3.5× · 28th pct
 2.3×
cheaper
FCF yield
sector median 4.0% · 15th pct
 0.8%
pricier

Forward EPS $4.28 vs trailing $-1.92. Forward P/E uses analysts' next-12-month estimate.

Quality & financial health

Gross margin
88.1%
Operating margin
-15.7%
FCF margin
2.3%
Net margin
-13.2%
Return on equity
-10.7%
Return on invested capital
-11.7%
Net debt / EBITDA
–
Current ratio
2.1×
Interest cover
-56.4×
Cash conversion (OCF/NI)
–
Piotroski F-score 4/9 · last two fiscal years
✗ Positive net income✓ Positive operating cash flow✗ Return on assets improved✓ Cash flow above net income✓ Long-term debt / assets fell✗ Current ratio improved✗ No share dilution✗ Gross margin improved✓ Asset turnover improved

Altman Z-score 4.6 (safe zone; above 3.0 = safe, below 1.8 = distress). Not meaningful for banks and insurers.

Analysts

Mean target
$60
+48%
Analysts
4
Strong Buy
Range
$55–$67
low – high
● price · ◆ mean target

Annual history

FYRevenueNet incomeFree cash flow
2025$719.0M$-38.5M$46.0M
2024$661.8M$73.9M$171.2M
2023$607.5M$1.3M$110.5M
2022$667.2M$60.7M$116.4M
2021$579.8M$53.4M$127.1M
2020$520.4M$127.0M$134.9M

From the company's 10-K filings via SEC XBRL. 3-year revenue CAGR +2.5%.

For information only · Important disclosures

Grades vs sector

Momentum
12th percentile in sector
D-
12-1 return: -21.9%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Growth
90th percentile in sector
A
Revenue growth (YoY): +32.4%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Value
67th percentile in sector
B
Forward E/P: 11.4% · EBITDA/EV: 5.9%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Profitability
11th percentile in sector
D-
Profit margin: -13.2% · Return on equity: -10.5%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Revisions
Not enough data yet
–
EPS estimate change, 30 days (current FY): –
30-day change in analysts' current-year EPS estimate; graded across covered stocks.

Systematic Models

Held by 1 of 7 live models: New Highs Growth.

New Highs Growth
4.0% of the book
 HeldQuality Growth
Outside this model's universe or screens
 Momentum Top 15
Outside this model's universe or screens
 Momentum Blend
Not in the current book
 SURVYR. Barbell Momentum & T-Bill Shield
Outside this model's universe or screens
 SURVYR. Physical AI Grid & Power
Outside this model's universe or screens
 SURVYR. Long Book
Not in the current book
Why it's in the New Highs Growth

Qualified on Pharma, -24% from 52-week high, held: still within 25% of its high, 12-1 momentum -7%.

What would knock it out: Drops out if it falls outside the top 25 at the next rebalance (Oct 30). In the latest preview (2026-10-26) it is outside the top 25.

Earnings & events

SUPN earningsNext report in 2 days
Next report · quarter Sep 2026
Thu Oct 29, 2026After the close
EPS consensus$0.49 range $0.49–$0.49
Revenue consensus$217.6M 3 analysts
Last 4 quarters · EPS vs estimate
Aug 3, 2026$0.53est $0.51+4.1%Above estimates
May 5, 2026$0.21est $0.28−24.5%Below estimates
Feb 24, 2026$0.88est $0.28+215.0%Above estimates
Nov 4, 2025$0.61est $0.82−25.9%Below estimates

In line = within 1% of the estimate.

Source: Yahoo Finance · report time: Nasdaq earnings calendar · refreshed 2026-10-24 23:09:21 ET
24-1125-0225-0525-0825-1126-0226-0526-080.001.10
EstimateActual (beat)Actual (miss)

Quarterly revenue

QuarterRevenueYoY
2026-06-30$219.1M+32.4%
2026-03-31$207.7M–
2025-12-31$211.6M–
2025-09-30$192.1M–
2025-06-30$165.5M–

News & catalysts

More news
Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (SUPN) files 8-K: other event
SEC 8-K · Oct 21
Rating changes
Reiterated
2026-07-09 · Cantor Fitzgerald reiterated Overweight on SUPN
Reiterated
2025-12-19 · Stifel reiterated Hold on SUPN
Initiated
2025-10-29 · B of A Securities started covering SUPN at Buy
Reiterated
2025-10-23 · TD Cowen reiterated Buy on SUPN
Upgrade
2025-10-09 · Piper Sandler upgraded SUPN from Neutral to Overweight
Reiterated
2025-09-30 · Cantor Fitzgerald reiterated Overweight on SUPN

Third-party analyst actions, not SURVYR.'s views. All rating changes

Insider trades
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Stats refreshed 2026-10-24 23:09:21 ET from Yahoo Finance (yfinance). "–" means the data isn't available. Refresh now

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Systematic research · Not investment advice · Hypothetical unless marked Live · Data: Yahoo Finance (15-min delayed), SEC EDGAR, House Clerk · Important disclosures · Contact desk@coteau.app

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Coteau 0.9 · Oct 21, 2026