SURVYR

TGT

Target Corporation
$148.96
+$0.95 (0.64%)Oct 28 close
Consumer StaplesS&P 500 CompareTechnicals
Model valuationRoughly fairly valuedDCF base $130
1M3M6M1Y2Y
-13%+10%+34%+58%+82%Oct 2025Oct 2026Apr 202652w high $170.7552w low $83.44
TGTSPY
Wall St. Highest PT $190.00 (+27.6%) Wall St. Avg PT $163.35 (+9.7%)
$81$110$139$167$196POC $116Hi $190Avg $163
Underwater Drawdown %Max DD -13.3%Current -12.3%
0.0%-13.3%
Relative Strength vs SPY+44.6% vs SPYOutperforming
+79%0%-79%
1W
−$3.42 (2.24%)
1M
−$9.47 (5.98%)
3M
+$4.17 (2.88%)
6M
+$23.25 (18.50%)
YTD
+$53.83 (56.59%)
1Y
+$55.63 (59.60%)

Chart

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Ratings & dials

1m · 5m · 15m · 1h · 4h · 1D

Analyst & Morningstar ratings

Consensus · Targets · Morningstar
Wall Street analyst consensus
SellHoldStrong Buy
Buy
38 analysts · mean score 2.47
1 = Strong Buy · 5 = Sell
Strong Buy1129%
Buy25%
Hold2155%
Underperform411%
Sell00%
Wall Street consensus · as of Oct 19, 2026
Analyst price targets
Current price$148.96
Average target$163.35
+$14.39 (+9.7%) upsideaverage target vs current price
CurrentAverageMedian
Low$128.00
Median$160.50
High$190.00
12-month Wall Street target range · as of Oct 19, 2026

Third-party ratings, not SURVYR.'s views.

Health check

Quality
WeakAverageStrong
Average
Piotroski F-score 5 of 9
See the tests
  • ✓Positive net income
  • ✓Positive operating cash flow
  • ✗Return on assets improved
  • ✓Cash flow above net income
  • ✗Long-term debt / assets fell
  • ✓Current ratio improved
  • ✓No share dilution
  • ✗Gross margin improved
  • ✗Asset turnover improved

Computed by SURVYR. from the company's SEC filings (latest balance sheet Aug 1, 2026). Descriptive, not a forecast.

Key stats & company

Market value$70.0B
P/E (last 12 months)16.0
P/E (next 12 months, estimated)16.1
52-week range$83.44 – $170.75
Revenue growth (latest quarter vs a year ago)+5.3%
Dividend yield3.03%
Analyst consensusBuy (34)
Average analyst price target$163.35 (+10%)

What they do

Target Corporation operates as a general merchandise retailer in the United States. It offers apparel for women, men, young adults, kids, toddlers, and babies, as well as jewelry, accessories, and shoes. The company also provides food and beverage products comprising dry and perishable grocery, including snacks, candy, beverages, deli, bakery, meat, produce.

Consumer Defensive · Discount Stores
Valuation and fundamentals

Valuation & fundamentals

Bottom line
Roughly fairly valued
Model read-out from the numbers below, not advice. Score +0 (DCF counts double).
•DCF (base case)below the price by 13%
•Forward P/E vs sector16.1x vs median 14.9x
•Piotroski F-score5/9
▲Net debt / EBITDA0.6x
•Analyst target+10% (34 analysts)

Discounted cash flow

Bear
$78
-47%
growth -3% · disc. 10.2% · term. 2.0%
Base
$130
-13%
growth 2% · disc. 9.2% · term. 2.5%
Bull
$201
+35%
growth 5% · disc. 8.2% · term. 3.0%

A DCF starts from trailing free cash flow, so it can overstate value if the last 12 months were unusually strong (or weak). Use the bear case or edit the starting cash flow if so.

Reverse DCFfor context, not a signal
Today's price assumes free cash flow grows about 4% a year for 10 years.
Implied
+4%/yr
FCF, last 3 yrs
n/a
FCF, last 5 yrs
-18%/yr
Revenue, last 3 yrs
-1%/yr
Revenue, last 5 yrs
+2%/yr
Same inputs as the DCF above: trailing free cash flow 4.5B, 9.2% discount rate, 2.5% growth after year 10, net debt and today's share count. Actual growth rates are compound annual rates from SEC annual filings through FY2026; "n/a" means too little history or a negative starting year.
Edit assumptions · recalculates instantly
Your value per share–

Free cash flow = operating cash flow − capital spending, trailing 12 months (TTM to 2026-08-01). Growth default: average of 3-year revenue CAGR and latest revenue growth, capped at 30%. Years 6–10 fade linearly to terminal growth. Discount rate = 4.25% risk-free assumption + beta 0.98 × 5% equity premium, kept within 7–13%. Bear: lower growth, +1 pt discount, 2% terminal. Bull: higher growth, −1 pt, 3%.

Multiples vs Consumer Staples

P/E (trailing)
sector median 23.9× · 23rd pct
 16.0×
cheaper
Forward P/E
sector median 14.9× · 62nd pct
 16.1×
pricier
EV / EBITDA
sector median 12.1× · 12th pct
 8.2×
cheaper
Price / sales
sector median 1.1× · 32nd pct
 0.6×
cheaper
Price / book
sector median 3.1× · 57th pct
 3.9×
pricier
FCF yield
sector median 6.5% · 49th pct
 6.4%
pricier

Forward EPS $9.55 vs trailing $9.63 (-1% expected growth). Forward P/E uses analysts' next-12-month estimate.

Quality & financial health

Gross margin
19.3%
Operating margin
5.6%
FCF margin
4.1%
Net margin
4.1%
Return on equity
24.6%
Return on invested capital
20.0%
Net debt / EBITDA
0.6×
Current ratio
1.0×
Interest cover
14.1×
Cash conversion (OCF/NI)
2.0×
Piotroski F-score 5/9 · last two fiscal years
✓ Positive net income✓ Positive operating cash flow✗ Return on assets improved✓ Cash flow above net income✗ Long-term debt / assets fell✓ Current ratio improved✓ No share dilution✗ Gross margin improved✗ Asset turnover improved

Analysts

Mean target
$163
+10%
Analysts
34
Buy
Range
$128–$190
low – high
● price · ◆ mean target

Annual history

FYRevenueNet incomeFree cash flow
2026$104.8B$3.7B$2.8B
2025$106.6B$4.1B$4.5B
2024$107.4B$4.1B$3.8B
2023$109.1B$2.8B$-1.5B
2022$106.0B$6.9B$5.1B
2021$93.6B$4.4B$7.9B

From the company's 10-K filings via SEC XBRL. 3-year revenue CAGR -1.3%.

For information only · Important disclosures

Grades vs sector

Momentum
97th percentile in sector
A+
12-1 return: +75.8%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Growth
64th percentile in sector
B-
Revenue growth (YoY): +5.3%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Value
54th percentile in sector
C+
Forward E/P: 6.2% · EBITDA/EV: 10.2%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Profitability
63rd percentile in sector
B-
Profit margin: +4.1% · Return on equity: +26.4%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Revisions
Not enough data yet
–
EPS estimate change, 30 days (current FY): –
30-day change in analysts' current-year EPS estimate; graded across covered stocks.

Systematic Models

Held by 1 of 7 live models: Momentum Blend.

Momentum Blend
4.6% of the book · Core sleeve
 HeldQuality Growth
ranked 85 of 360 · Composite (0-1) 0.6
 Momentum Top 15
ranked 30 of 499 · 12-month momentum 86.6%
 New Highs Growth
Outside this model's universe or screens
 SURVYR. Barbell Momentum & T-Bill Shield
Outside this model's universe or screens
 SURVYR. Physical AI Grid & Power
Outside this model's universe or screens
 SURVYR. Long Book
Not in the current book
Why it's in the Momentum Blend

In the Core sleeve: one of the steadiest 12-month uptrends in its universe (the model's smooth-trend momentum score).

What would knock it out: Re-checked at each monthly rebalance (next Oct 30); leaves if it no longer makes the Core selection. The latest preview drops it.

Earnings & events

TGT earningsNext report in 20 days
Next report
Wed Nov 18, 2026Before the open
EPS consensus$1.71
Revenue consensus–
Last 4 quarters · EPS vs estimate
Aug 19, 2026$4.11est $2.34+75.8%Above estimates
May 20, 2026$1.71est $1.46+17.3%Above estimates
Mar 3, 2026$2.44est $2.16+13.0%Above estimates
Nov 19, 2025$1.78est $1.71+4.1%Above estimates

In line = within 1% of the estimate.

Source: Yahoo Finance · refreshed 2026-10-27 17:48:31 ET
24-1125-0325-0525-0825-1126-0326-0526-080.004.11
EstimateActual (beat)Actual (miss)

News & catalysts

More news
FTC orders Walmart, Delta and others to share how they use personal data to set prices and pay
Associated Press · 13h ago
Meet the Dividend King That's Quietly Crushing the S&P 500 in 2026. Here's Why It's a Buy in November.
Motley Fool · 16h ago
Home Depot vs. Target: Which Consumer Stock Is a Better Buy in 2026?
Nasdaq · 16h ago
Target reinvents its $3 billion home brand
TheStreet · 20h ago
Costco vs. Target: Which Discount Retailer Should You Bet On?
Zacks · 20h ago
Insider trades
Cornell Brian C
Director, Executive Officer · 2026-08-25
Sell
$8.2M
Kremer Melissa K
Executive Officer · 2026-08-24
Sell
$2.6M
Liegel Matthew A
Chief Accounting Officer · 2026-08-21
Sell
$151.4K
None
None · None
Sell
–
None
None · None
Sell
–
None
None · None
Sell
–

Stats refreshed 2026-10-27 17:48:31 ET from Yahoo Finance (yfinance). "–" means the data isn't available. Refresh now

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Systematic research · Not investment advice · Hypothetical unless marked Live · Data: Yahoo Finance (15-min delayed), SEC EDGAR, House Clerk · Important disclosures · Contact desk@coteau.app

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Coteau 0.9 · Oct 21, 2026