SURVYR

UFCS

United Fire Group, Inc.
$57.20
−$0.38 (0.66%)Oct 27 close
FinancialsS&P 600 CompareTechnicals
-7%+17%+42%+66%+90%Oct 2025Oct 2026Apr 202652w high $58.2052w low $29.85
UFCSSPY
Wall St. Highest PT $60.00 (+4.9%) Wall St. Avg PT $58.50 (+2.3%)
$30$38$46$54$62POC $37Hi $60Avg $58
Underwater Drawdown %Max DD -12.2%Current -1.4%
0.0%-12.2%
Relative Strength vs SPY+73.6% vs SPYOutperforming
+89%0%-89%
1W
+$0.53 (0.94%)
1M
+$3.87 (7.26%)
3M
+$4.63 (8.80%)
6M
+$16.00 (38.83%)
YTD
+$21.15 (58.65%)
1Y
+$26.64 (87.16%)

Chart

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Ratings & dials

1m · 5m · 15m · 1h · 4h · 1D

Analyst & Morningstar ratings

Consensus · Targets · Morningstar
Wall Street analyst consensus
SellHoldStrong Buy
Strong Buy
2 analysts · mean score 1.50
1 = Strong Buy · 5 = Sell
Strong Buy150%
Buy150%
Hold00%
Underperform00%
Sell00%
Wall Street consensus · as of Aug 4, 2026
Analyst price targets
Current price$57.20
Average target$58.50
+$1.30 (+2.3%) upsideaverage target vs current price
CurrentAverageMedian
Low$57.00
Median$58.50
High$60.00
12-month Wall Street target range · as of Aug 4, 2026
Recent analyst rating changes · 30
Reiterated
2026-08-05 · Piper Sandler reiterated Overweight on UFCS
Reiterated
2026-05-07 · Piper Sandler reiterated Overweight on UFCS
Reiterated
2026-05-07 · Jones Trading reiterated Buy on UFCS
Upgrade
2026-05-06 · Piper Sandler upgraded UFCS from Neutral to Overweight
Reiterated
2026-03-02 · Jones Trading reiterated Buy on UFCS
Reiterated
2026-02-12 · Piper Sandler reiterated Neutral on UFCS

Third-party ratings, not SURVYR.'s views.

Key stats & company

Market value$1.5B
P/E (last 12 months)10.6
P/E (next 12 months, estimated)11.8
52-week range$29.85 – $58.20
Revenue growth (latest quarter vs a year ago)+14.4%
Dividend yield1.39%
Average analyst price target$58.50 (+2%)

What they do

United Fire Group, Inc. engages in writing property and casualty insurance in the United States. It provides property and casualty insurance, and surety bonds. The company also offers marine specialty, professional liability, and earthquake coverages; specialty and surplus lines coverage; and reinsurance coverage for property and casualty insurance.

Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualty
Valuation and fundamentals

Valuation & fundamentals

Bottom line
Leans undervalued
Model read-out from the numbers below, not advice. Score +2 (DCF counts double).
▲DCF (base case)above the price by 692%
•Forward P/E vs sector11.8x vs median 10.5x
•Piotroski F-score5/9

Discounted cash flow

Bear
$253
+342%
growth 8% · disc. 8.0% · term. 2.0%
Base
$453
+692%
growth 13% · disc. 7.0% · term. 2.5%
Bull
$821
+1336%
growth 17% · disc. 6.0% · term. 3.0%

A DCF starts from trailing free cash flow, so it can overstate value if the last 12 months were unusually strong (or weak). Use the bear case or edit the starting cash flow if so.

Reverse DCFfor context, not a signal
Not meaningful for property & casualty insurance: for banks, insurers and lenders, cash moving through loans and deposits swamps "free cash flow". Book value and earnings are better guides.
Edit assumptions · recalculates instantly
Your value per share–

Free cash flow = operating cash flow − capital spending, trailing 12 months (TTM to 2026-06-30). Growth default: average of 3-year revenue CAGR and latest revenue growth, capped at 30%. Years 6–10 fade linearly to terminal growth. Discount rate = 4.25% risk-free assumption + beta 0.47 × 5% equity premium, kept within 7–13%. Bear: lower growth, +1 pt discount, 2% terminal. Bull: higher growth, −1 pt, 3%.

Multiples vs Financials

P/E (trailing)
sector median 13.2× · 23rd pct
10.6×
cheaper
Forward P/E
sector median 10.5× · 62nd pct
11.8×
pricier
EV / EBITDA
sector median 11.0×
–
Price / sales
sector median 3.0× · 14th pct
1.0×
cheaper
Price / book
sector median 1.6× · 45th pct
1.5×
cheaper
FCF yield
sector median 8.0% · 88th pct
18.5%
cheaper

Forward EPS $4.84 vs trailing $5.39 (-10% expected growth). Forward P/E uses analysts' next-12-month estimate.

Quality & financial health

Gross margin
–
Operating margin
–
FCF margin
18.4%
Net margin
9.6%
Return on equity
14.4%
Return on invested capital
–
Net debt / EBITDA
–
Current ratio
–
Interest cover
–
Cash conversion (OCF/NI)
1.9×
Piotroski F-score 5/9 · last two fiscal years
✓ Positive net income✓ Positive operating cash flow✓ Return on assets improved✓ Cash flow above net income✗ Long-term debt / assets fell✗ Current ratio improved✗ No share dilution✗ Gross margin improved✓ Asset turnover improved

Analysts

Mean target
$58
+2%
Analysts
2
None
Range
$57–$60
low – high
● price · ◆ mean target

Annual history

FYRevenueNet incomeFree cash flow
2025$1.4B$118.2M$269.7M
2024$1.3B$62.0M$340.3M
2023$1.1B$-29.7M$171.7M
2022$980.3M$15.0M$-1.3M
2021$1.1B$80.6M$29.9M
2020$1.1B$-112.7M$41.4M

From the company's 10-K filings via SEC XBRL. 3-year revenue CAGR +12.2%.

For information only · Important disclosures

Grades vs sector

Momentum
98th percentile in sector
A+
12-1 return: +76.2%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Growth
64th percentile in sector
B-
Revenue growth (YoY): +14.4%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Value
57th percentile in sector
B-
Forward E/P: 8.6% · EBITDA/EV: 13.8%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Profitability
40th percentile in sector
C-
Profit margin: +9.6% · Return on equity: +15.5%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Revisions
Not enough data yet
–
EPS estimate change, 30 days (current FY): –
30-day change in analysts' current-year EPS estimate; graded across covered stocks.

Systematic Models

Held by 1 of 7 live models: Momentum Blend.

Momentum Blend
4.5% of the book · Core sleeve
Held
Quality Growth
Outside this model's universe or screens
Momentum Top 15
Outside this model's universe or screens
New Highs Growth
Outside this model's universe or screens
SURVYR. Barbell Momentum & T-Bill Shield
Outside this model's universe or screens
SURVYR. Physical AI Grid & Power
Outside this model's universe or screens
SURVYR. Long Book
Not in the current book
Why it's in the Momentum Blend

In the Core sleeve: one of the steadiest 12-month uptrends in its universe (the model's smooth-trend momentum score).

What would knock it out: Re-checked at each monthly rebalance (next Oct 30); leaves if it no longer makes the Core selection. The latest preview drops it.

Earnings & events

UFCS earningsNext report in 6 days
Next report · quarter Sep 2026
Tue Nov 3, 2026After the close
EPS consensus$1.19 range $1.19–$1.19
Revenue consensus$413.5M 2 analysts
Last 4 quarters · EPS vs estimate
Aug 3, 2026$1.30est $0.70+87.0%Above estimates
May 5, 2026$1.15est $0.79+45.6%Above estimates
Feb 10, 2026$1.50est $0.91+65.8%Above estimates
Nov 4, 2025$1.50est $0.72+108.3%Above estimates

In line = within 1% of the estimate.

Source: Yahoo Finance · report time: Nasdaq earnings calendar · refreshed 2026-10-27 18:03:53 ET
24-1125-0225-0525-0825-1126-0226-0526-080.001.50
EstimateActual (beat)Actual (miss)

Quarterly revenue

QuarterRevenueYoY
2026-06-30$383.7M+14.0%
2026-03-31$369.4M–
2025-12-31$366.2M–
2025-09-30$354.0M–
2025-06-30$336.6M–

Recent dividends

2026-09-04: $0.200 · 2026-06-05: $0.200 · 2025-12-05: $0.160 · 2025-08-29: $0.160 · 2025-06-06: $0.160 · 2025-03-07: $0.160 · 2024-11-29: $0.160 · 2024-08-30: $0.160

News & catalysts

More news
United Fire Group, Inc. (UFCS) files 8-K: other event
SEC 8-K · Oct 21
Rating changes
Reiterated
2026-08-05 · Piper Sandler reiterated Overweight on UFCS
Reiterated
2026-05-07 · Piper Sandler reiterated Overweight on UFCS
Reiterated
2026-05-07 · Jones Trading reiterated Buy on UFCS
Upgrade
2026-05-06 · Piper Sandler upgraded UFCS from Neutral to Overweight
Reiterated
2026-03-02 · Jones Trading reiterated Buy on UFCS
Reiterated
2026-02-12 · Piper Sandler reiterated Neutral on UFCS

Third-party analyst actions, not SURVYR.'s views. All rating changes

Insider trades
Carlton Scott L
Director · 2026-09-03
Sell
$542.8K

Stats refreshed 2026-10-27 18:03:53 ET from Yahoo Finance (yfinance). "–" means the data isn't available. Refresh now

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Systematic research · Not investment advice · Hypothetical unless marked Live · Data: Yahoo Finance (15-min delayed), SEC EDGAR, House Clerk · Important disclosures · Contact desk@coteau.app

Coteau 0.9 · Oct 21, 2026