SURVYR

USFD

US Foods Holding Corp.
$102.57
+$1.21 (1.19%)Oct 27 close
Consumer StaplesS&P 400 CompareTechnicals
Model valuationLeans expensiveDCF base $85
1M3M6M1Y2Y
-7%+7%+21%+36%+50%Oct 2025Oct 2026Apr 202652w high $111.4252w low $69.88
USFDSPY
Wall St. Highest PT $130.00 (+26.7%) Wall St. Avg PT $116.27 (+13.4%)
$70$86$102$118$134POC $92Hi $130Avg $116
Underwater Drawdown %Max DD -21.1%Current -7.5%
0.0%-21.1%
Relative Strength vs SPY+24.7% vs SPYOutperforming
+43%0%-43%
1W
−$0.43 (0.42%)
1M
+$9.24 (9.90%)
3M
+$1.10 (1.08%)
6M
+$12.19 (13.49%)
YTD
+$27.25 (36.18%)
1Y
+$28.37 (38.23%)

Chart

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Ratings & dials

1m · 5m · 15m · 1h · 4h · 1D

Analyst & Morningstar ratings

Consensus · Targets · Morningstar
Wall Street analyst consensus
SellHoldStrong Buy
Buy
15 analysts · mean score 1.53
1 = Strong Buy · 5 = Sell
Wall Street consensus
Analyst price targets
Current price$102.57
Average target$116.27
+$13.70 (+13.4%) upsideaverage target vs current price
CurrentAverageMedian
Low$65.00
Median$116.27
High$130.00
12-month Wall Street target range

Third-party ratings, not SURVYR.'s views.

Health check

Financial health
DistressGrey zoneSafe
Safe zone
Altman Z-score 4.8
Above 2.99 is the safe zone, below 1.81 the distress zone.
Quality
WeakAverageStrong
Strong
Piotroski F-score 8 of 9
See the tests
  • ✓Positive net income
  • ✓Positive operating cash flow
  • ✓Return on assets improved
  • ✓Cash flow above net income
  • ✓Long-term debt / assets fell
  • ✗Current ratio improved
  • ✓No share dilution
  • ✓Gross margin improved
  • ✓Asset turnover improved

Computed by SURVYR. from the company's SEC filings (latest balance sheet Jun 27, 2026). Descriptive, not a forecast.

Key stats & company

Market value$22.1B
P/E (last 12 months)31.4
P/E (next 12 months, estimated)18.4
52-week range$69.88 – $111.42
Revenue growth (latest quarter vs a year ago)+4.5%
Dividend yieldNo dividend
Analyst consensusBuy (15)
Average analyst price target$116.27 (+13%)

What they do

US Foods Holding Corp. markets, sells, and distributes fresh, frozen, and dry food and non-food products to foodservice customers in the United States. The company also provides MOXe, an all-in-one foodservice business application. Its customers include independently owned single and multi-unit restaurants, regional concepts, national restaurant chains, hospitals, nursing homes, hotels and motels.

Consumer Defensive · Food Distribution
Valuation and fundamentals

Valuation & fundamentals

Bottom line
Leans expensive
Model read-out from the numbers below, not advice. Score -2 (DCF counts double).
▼DCF (base case)below the price by 18%
▼Forward P/E vs sector18.4x vs median 14.9x
▲Piotroski F-score8/9
▲Altman Z4.8 (safe)
▲Net debt / EBITDA0.0x
•Analyst target+13% (15 analysts)

Discounted cash flow

Bear
$52
-49%
growth -0% · disc. 9.5% · term. 2.0%
Base
$85
-18%
growth 5% · disc. 8.5% · term. 2.5%
Bull
$132
+28%
growth 8% · disc. 7.5% · term. 3.0%

A DCF starts from trailing free cash flow, so it can overstate value if the last 12 months were unusually strong (or weak). Use the bear case or edit the starting cash flow if so.

Reverse DCFfor context, not a signal
Today's price assumes free cash flow grows about 7% a year for 10 years.
Implied
+7%/yr
FCF, last 3 yrs
+24%/yr
FCF, last 5 yrs
+34%/yr
Revenue, last 3 yrs
+5%/yr
Revenue, last 5 yrs
+11%/yr
Same inputs as the DCF above: trailing free cash flow 0.9B, 8.5% discount rate, 2.5% growth after year 10, net debt and today's share count. Actual growth rates are compound annual rates from SEC annual filings through FY2025; "n/a" means too little history or a negative starting year.
Edit assumptions · recalculates instantly
Your value per share–

Free cash flow = operating cash flow − capital spending, trailing 12 months (TTM to 2026-06-27). Growth default: average of 3-year revenue CAGR and latest revenue growth, capped at 30%. Years 6–10 fade linearly to terminal growth. Discount rate = 4.25% risk-free assumption + beta 0.86 × 5% equity premium, kept within 7–13%. Bear: lower growth, +1 pt discount, 2% terminal. Bull: higher growth, −1 pt, 3%.

Multiples vs Consumer Staples

P/E (trailing)
sector median 23.9× · 64th pct
 31.4×
pricier
Forward P/E
sector median 14.9× · 68th pct
 18.4×
pricier
EV / EBITDA
sector median 12.1× · 55th pct
 12.8×
pricier
Price / sales
sector median 1.1× · 23rd pct
 0.6×
cheaper
Price / book
sector median 3.1× · 64th pct
 5.2×
pricier
FCF yield
sector median 6.5% · 30th pct
 4.3%
pricier

Forward EPS $5.55 vs trailing $3.25 (+71% expected growth). Forward P/E uses analysts' next-12-month estimate.

Quality & financial health

Gross margin
17.6%
Operating margin
3.1%
FCF margin
2.4%
Net margin
1.8%
Return on equity
17.0%
Return on invested capital
22.1%
Net debt / EBITDA
0.0×
Current ratio
1.1×
Interest cover
4.1×
Cash conversion (OCF/NI)
1.9×
Piotroski F-score 8/9 · last two fiscal years
✓ Positive net income✓ Positive operating cash flow✓ Return on assets improved✓ Cash flow above net income✓ Long-term debt / assets fell✗ Current ratio improved✓ No share dilution✓ Gross margin improved✓ Asset turnover improved

Altman Z-score 4.8 (safe zone; above 3.0 = safe, below 1.8 = distress). Not meaningful for banks and insurers.

Analysts

Mean target
$116
+13%
Analysts
15
Buy
Range
$65–$130
low – high
● price · ◆ mean target

Annual history

FYRevenueNet incomeFree cash flow
2025$39.4B$676.0M$959.0M
2024$37.9B$494.0M$833.0M
2023$35.6B$506.0M$831.0M
2022$34.1B$265.0M$500.0M
2022$29.5B$164.0M$145.0M
2021$22.9B$-226.0M$224.0M

From the company's 10-K filings via SEC XBRL. 3-year revenue CAGR +5.0%.

For information only · Important disclosures

Grades vs sector

Momentum
81st percentile in sector
A-
12-1 return: +27.0%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Growth
55th percentile in sector
C+
Revenue growth (YoY): +4.5%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Value
30th percentile in sector
D+
Forward E/P: 5.4% · EBITDA/EV: 6.5%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Profitability
42nd percentile in sector
C
Profit margin: +1.8% · Return on equity: +16.4%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Revisions
Not enough data yet
–
EPS estimate change, 30 days (current FY): –
30-day change in analysts' current-year EPS estimate; graded across covered stocks.

Systematic Models

Not held by any of our 7 live models right now.

Quality Growth
Outside this model's universe or screens
 Momentum Top 15
Outside this model's universe or screens
 Momentum Blend
Not in the current book
 New Highs Growth
Outside this model's universe or screens
 SURVYR. Barbell Momentum & T-Bill Shield
Outside this model's universe or screens
 SURVYR. Physical AI Grid & Power
Outside this model's universe or screens
 SURVYR. Long Book
Not in the current book

Earnings & events

USFD earningsNext report in 9 days
Next report · quarter Sep 2026
Thu Nov 5, 2026Before the open
EPS consensus$1.25
Revenue consensus–
Last 4 quarters · EPS vs estimate
Aug 6, 2026$1.44est $1.36+5.7%Above estimates
May 7, 2026$0.78est $0.81−3.6%Below estimates
Feb 12, 2026$1.04est $1.01+3.4%Above estimates
Nov 6, 2025$1.07est $1.03+3.7%Above estimates

In line = within 1% of the estimate.

Source: Yahoo Finance · report time: Nasdaq earnings calendar · refreshed 2026-10-27 18:05:20 ET
24-1125-0225-0525-0825-1126-0226-0526-080.001.44
EstimateActual (beat)Actual (miss)

News & catalysts

More news
No recent headlines.
Insider trades
Taylor Randy J
See Remarks · 2026-08-13
Sell
$573.7K
Taylor Randy J
See Remarks · 2026-08-13
Sell
$710.0K
Hancock William Spencer
See Remarks · 2026-08-07
Sell
$2.4M
None
None · None
Sell
–

Stats refreshed 2026-10-27 18:05:20 ET from Yahoo Finance (yfinance). "–" means the data isn't available. Refresh now

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Systematic research · Not investment advice · Hypothetical unless marked Live · Data: Yahoo Finance (15-min delayed), SEC EDGAR, House Clerk · Important disclosures · Contact desk@coteau.app

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Coteau 0.9 · Oct 21, 2026