SURVYR

VLO

Valero Energy Corporation
$388.48
+$1.14 (0.29%)Oct 28 close
EnergyS&P 500 CompareTechnicals
Model valuationLooks undervaluedDCF base $1,373
1M3M6M1Y2Y
-8%+36%+81%+126%+170%Oct 2025Oct 2026Apr 202652w high $461.5252w low $156.26
VLOSPY
Wall St. Highest PT $505.00 (+30.0%) Wall St. Avg PT $412.21 (+6.1%)
$160$250$340$430$520POC $235Hi $505Avg $412
Underwater Drawdown %Max DD -15.8%Current -15.5%
0.0%-15.8%
Relative Strength vs SPY+113.6% vs SPYOutperforming
+179%0%-179%
1W
−$48.27 (11.05%)
1M
−$1.09 (0.28%)
3M
+$88.32 (29.42%)
6M
+$139.33 (55.92%)
YTD
+$228.06 (142.17%)
1Y
+$222.66 (134.27%)

Chart

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Ratings & dials

1m · 5m · 15m · 1h · 4h · 1D

Analyst & Morningstar ratings

Consensus · Targets · Morningstar
Wall Street analyst consensus
SellHoldStrong Buy
Buy
20 analysts · mean score 2.45
1 = Strong Buy · 5 = Sell
Strong Buy630%
Buy315%
Hold945%
Underperform00%
Sell210%
Wall Street consensus · as of Oct 22, 2026
Analyst price targets
Current price$388.48
Average target$418.79
+$30.31 (+7.8%) upsideaverage target vs current price
CurrentAverageMedian
Low$238.00
Median$435.00
High$530.00
12-month Wall Street target range · as of Oct 22, 2026

Third-party ratings, not SURVYR.'s views.

Health check

Quality
WeakAverageStrong
Average
Piotroski F-score 5 of 9
See the tests
  • ✓Positive net income
  • ✓Positive operating cash flow
  • ✗Return on assets improved
  • ✓Cash flow above net income
  • ✗Long-term debt / assets fell
  • ✓Current ratio improved
  • ✓No share dilution
  • ✗Gross margin improved
  • ✗Asset turnover improved

Computed by SURVYR. from the company's SEC filings (latest balance sheet Sep 30, 2026). Descriptive, not a forecast.

Key stats & company

Market value$124.8B
P/E (last 12 months)18.1
P/E (next 12 months, estimated)8.9
52-week range$156.26 – $461.52
Revenue growth (latest quarter vs a year ago)+51.7%
Dividend yield1.11%
Analyst consensusBuy (19)
Average analyst price target$412.21 (+6%)

What they do

Valero Energy Corporation manufactures, markets, and sells petroleum-based and low-carbon liquid transportation fuels and petrochemical products in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Ireland, Latin America, Mexico, Peru, and internationally. It operates through three segments: Refining, Renewable Diesel, and Ethanol.

Energy · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Valuation and fundamentals

Valuation & fundamentals

Bottom line
Looks undervalued
Model read-out from the numbers below, not advice. Score +3 (DCF counts double).
▲DCF (base case)above the price by 253%
▲Forward P/E vs sector8.9x vs median 13.6x
•Piotroski F-score5/9
▲Net debt / EBITDA-0.1x
•Analyst target+6% (19 analysts)

Discounted cash flow

CyclicalValued on average-cycle margins
Bear
$670
+72%
growth 12% · disc. 8.2% · term. 2.0%
Base
$1,373
+253%
growth 20% · disc. 7.2% · term. 2.5%
Bull
$2,673
+588%
growth 25% · disc. 6.2% · term. 3.0%

Starting cash flow is mid-cycle: 4.8% average margin × current revenue = 7.3B (last 12 months: 14.4B at a 9% margin). On trailing cash flow the base case would be $2,678.

Reverse DCFfor context, not a signal
Today's price implies shrinking cash flows: about -1% a year for 10 years.
Implied
-1%/yr
FCF, last 3 yrs
-23%/yr
FCF, last 5 yrs
+44%/yr
Revenue, last 3 yrs
-11%/yr
Revenue, last 5 yrs
+14%/yr
Same inputs as the DCF above: mid-cycle free cash flow 7.3B, 7.2% discount rate, 2.5% growth after year 10, net cash and today's share count. Actual growth rates are compound annual rates from SEC annual filings through FY2025; "n/a" means too little history or a negative starting year.
Edit assumptions · recalculates instantly
Your value per share–

Free cash flow = operating cash flow − capital spending, trailing 12 months (TTM to 2026-09-30). Growth default: average of 3-year revenue CAGR and latest revenue growth, capped at 30%. Years 6–10 fade linearly to terminal growth. Discount rate = 4.25% risk-free assumption + beta 0.59 × 5% equity premium, kept within 7–13%. Bear: lower growth, +1 pt discount, 2% terminal. Bull: higher growth, −1 pt, 3%.

Multiples vs Energy

P/E (trailing)
sector median 18.1× · 50th pct
 18.1×
cheaper
Forward P/E
sector median 13.6× · 26th pct
 8.9×
cheaper
EV / EBITDA
sector median 8.1× · 34th pct
 7.0×
cheaper
Price / sales
sector median 2.3× · 13th pct
 0.8×
cheaper
Price / book
sector median 1.9× · 88th pct
 4.5×
pricier
FCF yield
sector median 7.6% · 70th pct
 11.5%
cheaper

Forward EPS $48.57 vs trailing $23.99 (+102% expected growth). Forward P/E uses analysts' next-12-month estimate.

Quality & financial health

Gross margin
12.3%
Operating margin
11.5%
FCF margin
9.4%
Net margin
8.4%
Return on equity
46.3%
Return on invested capital
51.7%
Net debt / EBITDA
-0.1×
Current ratio
1.7×
Interest cover
30.9×
Cash conversion (OCF/NI)
1.2×
Piotroski F-score 5/9 · last two fiscal years
✓ Positive net income✓ Positive operating cash flow✗ Return on assets improved✓ Cash flow above net income✗ Long-term debt / assets fell✓ Current ratio improved✓ No share dilution✗ Gross margin improved✗ Asset turnover improved

Analysts

Mean target
$412
+6%
Analysts
19
Buy
Range
$238–$505
low – high
● price · ◆ mean target

Annual history

FYRevenueNet incomeFree cash flow
2025$122.7B$2.3B$5.8B
2024$129.9B$2.8B$6.7B
2023$144.8B$8.8B$9.2B
2022$176.4B$11.5B$12.6B
2021$114.0B$930.0M$5.9B
2020$64.9B$-1.4B$948.0M

From the company's 10-K filings via SEC XBRL. 3-year revenue CAGR -11.4%.

For information only · Important disclosures

Grades vs sector

Momentum
99th percentile in sector
A+
12-1 return: +133.4%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Growth
70th percentile in sector
B
Revenue growth (YoY): +51.7%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Value
55th percentile in sector
C+
Forward E/P: 10.7% · EBITDA/EV: 9.9%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Profitability
56th percentile in sector
B-
Profit margin: +5.4% · Return on equity: +27.6%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Revisions
Not enough data yet
–
EPS estimate change, 30 days (current FY): –
30-day change in analysts' current-year EPS estimate; graded across covered stocks.

Systematic Models

Held by 1 of 7 live models: Momentum Blend.

Momentum Blend
3.8% of the book · Core sleeve
 HeldQuality Growth
ranked 19 of 360 · Composite (0-1) 0.8
 Momentum Top 15
ranked 20 of 499 · 12-month momentum 115.3%
 New Highs Growth
Outside this model's universe or screens
 SURVYR. Barbell Momentum & T-Bill Shield
Outside this model's universe or screens
 SURVYR. Physical AI Grid & Power
Outside this model's universe or screens
 SURVYR. Long Book
Not in the current book
Why it's in the Momentum Blend

In the Core sleeve: one of the steadiest 12-month uptrends in its universe (the model's smooth-trend momentum score).

What would knock it out: Re-checked at each monthly rebalance (next Oct 30); leaves if it no longer makes the Core selection. The latest preview keeps it.

Earnings & events

VLO earningsReported Oct 22, 2026▲ Above estimates
Results · Before the open
EPS actual$23.90
EPS estimate$21.23
Surprise+12.6%
RevenueNot in our data yet

Revenue for this quarter is not in our data yet. It arrives with the quarterly filing.

Next report
Thu Jan 28, 2027Before the open
EPS consensus$19.74
Revenue consensus–
Last 4 quarters · EPS vs estimate
Oct 22, 2026$23.90est $21.23+12.6%Above estimates
Jul 30, 2026$12.54est $10.13+23.8%Above estimates
Apr 30, 2026$4.22est $3.16+33.5%Above estimates
Jan 29, 2026$3.82est $3.27+16.9%Above estimates

In line = within 1% of the estimate.

Source: Yahoo Finance · refreshed 2026-10-27 17:48:31 ET
25-0125-0425-0725-1026-0126-0426-0726-100.0023.90
EstimateActual (beat)Actual (miss)

News & catalysts

More news
Refiner Stocks Just Had Their Worst Day Since the Tariff Shock
24/7 Wall St. · 3h ago
Why Did Valero Stock Fall?
Trefis · 4h ago
Phillips 66 Q3 Earnings Beat Estimates on Strong Refining Margins
Zacks · 7h ago
Marathon Petroleum Sinks 7%, Valero Down 8%, Phillips 66 Down 7% as Refiners Slide Together
TIKR · 7h ago
MPC Stock Gains on Refining Strength: Is the Rally Sustainable?
Zacks · 7h ago
Insider trades
None
None · None
Sell
–
None
None · None
Sell
–
None
None · None
Sell
–
None
None · None
Sell
–

Stats refreshed 2026-10-27 17:48:31 ET from Yahoo Finance (yfinance). "–" means the data isn't available. Refresh now

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Systematic research · Not investment advice · Hypothetical unless marked Live · Data: Yahoo Finance (15-min delayed), SEC EDGAR, House Clerk · Important disclosures · Contact desk@coteau.app

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Coteau 0.9 · Oct 21, 2026