NEW 13F POSITION · EXODUSPOINT Institutional Filing Alert

ExodusPoint Capital Management (Michael Gelband & Hyung Lee) opened a new position in VST (14.5% of 13F portfolio)

Form 13F-HR institutional holdings disclosure · Filed 2026-10-17

ExodusPoint Holdings › All Filing Alerts › SEC Filing ↗

VST

Vistra Corp.

$146.66

+$4.93 (3.48%)Oct 27 close

UtilitiesS&P 500 Compare Technicals

Model valuationLooks expensiveDCF base $18

1M 3M 6M 1Y 2Y

VSTSPY

Wall St. Highest PT $305.00 (+108.0%) Wall St. Avg PT $209.76 (+43.0%)

Underwater Drawdown %Max DD -32.2%Current -26.0%

Relative Strength vs SPY-39.5% vs SPYUnderperforming

−$3.66 (2.43%)

+$8.20 (5.92%)

−$1.74 (1.17%)

−$13.97 (8.70%)

YTD

−$13.96 (8.69%)

−$51.49 (25.98%)

Chart

Loading live chart…

Ratings & dials

1m · 5m · 15m · 1h · 4h · 1D

Analyst & Morningstar ratings

Consensus · Targets · Morningstar

Wall Street analyst consensus

Strong Buy

23 analysts · mean score 1.30

1 = Strong Buy · 5 = Sell

Strong Buy1878%

Buy417%

Hold00%

Underperform14%

Sell00%

Wall Street consensus · as of Oct 21, 2026

Analyst price targets

Current price$146.66

Average target$208.86

+$62.20 (+42.4%) upsideaverage target vs current price

CurrentAverageMedian

Low$106.00

Median$208.50

High$305.00

12-month Wall Street target range · as of Oct 21, 2026

Third-party ratings, not SURVYR.'s views.

Health check

Financial health

Distress zone

Altman Z-score 1.6

Above 2.99 is the safe zone, below 1.81 the distress zone.

Quality

Average

Piotroski F-score 5 of 9

See the tests

✓Positive net income
✓Positive operating cash flow
✗Return on assets improved
✓Cash flow above net income
✓Long-term debt / assets fell
✗Current ratio improved
✓No share dilution
✗Gross margin improved
✗Asset turnover improved

Computed by SURVYR. from the company's SEC filings (latest balance sheet Jun 30, 2026). Descriptive, not a forecast.

Key stats & company

Market value$52.4B

P/E (last 12 months)26.3

P/E (next 12 months, estimated)15.1

52-week range$132.66 – $203.66

Revenue growth (latest quarter vs a year ago)-5.5%

Dividend yield0.61%

Analyst consensusStrong Buy (21)

Average analyst price target$209.76 (+43%)

What they do

Vistra Corp. operates as an integrated retail electricity and power generation company in the United States. The company operates through five segments: Retail, Texas, East, West, and Asset Closure. The company retails electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers across states in the United States and the District of Columbia.

Utilities · Utilities - Independent Power Producers

Valuation and fundamentals

Valuation & fundamentals

Bottom line

Looks expensive

Model read-out from the numbers below, not advice. Score -3 (DCF counts double).

▼DCF (base case)below the price by 88%

•Forward P/E vs sector15.1x vs median 17.5x

•Piotroski F-score5/9

▼Altman Z1.6 (distress)

▼Net debt / EBITDA3.5x

▲Analyst target+43% (21 analysts)

Discounted cash flow

Bear

$-6

-104%

growth -3% · disc. 12.2% · term. 2.0%

Base

$18

-88%

growth 2% · disc. 11.2% · term. 2.5%

Bull

$46

-69%

growth 5% · disc. 10.2% · term. 3.0%

A DCF starts from trailing free cash flow, so it can overstate value if the last 12 months were unusually strong (or weak). Use the bear case or edit the starting cash flow if so.

Reverse DCFfor context, not a signal

Today's price assumes free cash flow grows about 16% a year for 10 years.

Implied

+16%/yr

FCF, last 3 yrs

n/a

FCF, last 5 yrs

-9%/yr

Revenue, last 3 yrs

+9%/yr

Revenue, last 5 yrs

+9%/yr

Same inputs as the DCF above: trailing free cash flow 2.3B, 11.2% discount rate, 2.5% growth after year 10, net debt and today's share count. Actual growth rates are compound annual rates from SEC annual filings through FY2025; "n/a" means too little history or a negative starting year.

Edit assumptions · recalculates instantly

Your value per share–

Free cash flow = operating cash flow − capital spending, trailing 12 months (TTM to 2026-06-30). Growth default: average of 3-year revenue CAGR and latest revenue growth, capped at 30%. Years 6–10 fade linearly to terminal growth. Discount rate = 4.25% risk-free assumption + beta 1.38 × 5% equity premium, kept within 7–13%. Bear: lower growth, +1 pt discount, 2% terminal. Bull: higher growth, −1 pt, 3%.

Multiples vs Utilities

P/E (trailing)

sector median 20.9× · 91st pct

26.3×
pricier

Forward P/E

sector median 17.5× · 22nd pct

15.1×
cheaper

EV / EBITDA

sector median 12.9× · 53rd pct

13.2×
pricier

Price / sales

sector median 3.0× · 39th pct

2.7×
cheaper

Price / book

sector median 2.0× · 97th pct

9.6×
pricier

FCF yield

sector median 0.1% · 61st pct

4.3%
cheaper

Forward EPS $10.37 vs trailing $5.93 (+75% expected growth). Forward P/E uses analysts' next-12-month estimate.

Backlog (remaining performance obligations)

RPO

$7.1B

as of 2026-06-30

vs a year ago

+166%

YoY

× TTM revenue

0.37×

coverage

24-09

24-12

25-03

25-06

25-09

25-12

26-03

26-06

Contracted revenue not yet recognized, from SEC filings (XBRL tag RevenueRemainingPerformanceObligation).

Quality & financial health

Gross margin

–

Operating margin

18.5%

FCF margin

11.7%

Net margin

11.6%

Return on equity

40.5%

Return on invested capital

11.4%

Net debt / EBITDA

3.5×

Current ratio

1.0×

Interest cover

3.1×

Cash conversion (OCF/NI)

2.3×

Piotroski F-score 5/9 · last two fiscal years

✓ Positive net income✓ Positive operating cash flow✗ Return on assets improved✓ Cash flow above net income✓ Long-term debt / assets fell✗ Current ratio improved✓ No share dilution✗ Gross margin improved✗ Asset turnover improved

Altman Z-score 1.6 (distress zone; above 3.0 = safe, below 1.8 = distress). Not meaningful for banks and insurers.

Analysts

Mean target

$210

+43%

Analysts

Strong Buy

Range

$106–$305

low – high

● price · ◆ mean target

Annual history

FY	Revenue	Net income	Free cash flow
2025	$17.7B	$944.0M	$1.3B
2024	$17.2B	$2.7B	$2.5B
2023	$14.8B	$1.5B	$3.8B
2022	$13.7B	$-1.2B	$-816.0M
2021	$12.1B	$-1.3B	$-1.2B
2020	$11.4B	$636.0M	$2.1B

From the company's 10-K filings via SEC XBRL. 3-year revenue CAGR +8.9%.

For information only · Important disclosures

Grades vs sector

Momentum

5th percentile in sector

12-1 return: -26.1%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.

Growth

7th percentile in sector

Revenue growth (YoY): -5.5%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.

Value

79th percentile in sector

B+

Forward E/P: 6.8% · EBITDA/EV: 9.0%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.

Profitability

66th percentile in sector

Profit margin: +11.6% · Return on equity: +43.0%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.

Revisions

Not enough data yet

–

EPS estimate change, 30 days (current FY): –
30-day change in analysts' current-year EPS estimate; graded across covered stocks.

Systematic Models

Held by 2 of 7 live models: SURVYR. Physical AI Grid & Power, SURVYR. Long Book.

SURVYR. Physical AI Grid & Power

8.0% of the book · Nuclear & Baseload Power (30%) sleeve · ranked 2 of 160

Held SURVYR. Long Book

4.3% of the book · Core sleeve

Held Quality Growth

Outside this model's universe or screens

Momentum Top 15

ranked 474 of 499 · 12-month momentum -29.6%

Momentum Blend

Not in the current book

New Highs Growth

Outside this model's universe or screens

SURVYR. Barbell Momentum & T-Bill Shield

Outside this model's universe or screens

Why it's in the SURVYR. Physical AI Grid & Power #2 of 160

Qualified on 8.0% weight, PJM/ERCOT nuclear + gas fleet with aggressive buybacks. Ranked 2nd of 160 at the 2026-10-01 rebalance.

What would knock it out: Drops out if it falls outside the top 14 at the next rebalance (Oct 30).

Why it's in the SURVYR. Long Book

Picked for this research portfolio at the Oct 21, 2026 close (Core group, Energy & BTM power).

What would knock it out: Weights are fixed and there is no rebalance rule. Any change would be dated and shown here.

Earnings & events

VST earningsNext report in 10 days

Next report · quarter Sep 2026

Fri Nov 6, 2026Before the open

EPS consensus$2.69

Revenue consensus–

Last 4 quarters · EPS vs estimate

Aug 10, 2026$0.76est $1.63−53.4%Below estimates

May 8, 2026$2.87est $1.87+53.4%Above estimates

Feb 27, 2026$0.54est $2.30−76.5%Below estimates

Nov 7, 2025$1.38est $1.40−1.3%Below estimates

In line = within 1% of the estimate.

EstimateActual (beat)Actual (miss)

News & catalysts

More news

3 Energy Stocks I'm Not Selling, No Matter What the Market Does

Nasdaq · 11h ago

Vistra Stock Fell Nearly 10% in a Day After Meta’s Earnings. Here’s Why Its Forecast Already Discounts the Data Center Hype

TIKR · Oct 24

Vistra Is Up 11% in a Month. Is Washington’s $4.2 Billion Nuclear Loan Really That Good?

TIKR · Oct 22

Why Should You Think About Vistra Differently Now?

Trefis · Oct 22

Bloom Energy vs. Vistra: Which Energy Stock Is a Better Buy in 2026?

Nasdaq · Oct 21

Research

Coteau Physical AI Grid & Power: rebalance of Oct 1, 2026Oct 26, 2026

Insider trades

Moldovan Kristopher E.

EVP and CFO · 2026-10-07

Sell
$3.3M

Hudson Scott A

EVP & President Vistra Retail · 2026-10-06

Sell
$3.6M

Hudson Scott A

EVP & President Vistra Retail · 2026-09-08

Sell
$1.2M

Hudson Scott A

EVP & President Vistra Retail · 2026-09-08

Sell
$4.4M

Hudson Scott A

EVP & President Vistra Retail · 2026-09-08

Sell
$1.2M

Moldovan Kristopher E.

EVP and CFO · 2026-09-08

Sell
$3.0M

Burke James A

Director, President and CEO · 2026-09-01

Buy
$603.9K

Burke James A

Director, President and CEO · 2026-08-31

Buy
$299.2K

Burke James A

Director, President and CEO · 2026-08-24

Buy
$270.0K

Stats refreshed 2026-10-27 17:58:21 ET from Yahoo Finance (yfinance). "–" means the data isn't available. Refresh now

Morning Brief (8 AM ET) & Market Close (4:30 PM ET), weekdays

Indexes, sectors, biggest movers, rates, top news, SURVYR. model changes and what's ahead. Free, two short emails each weekday.

SURVYR

Free to use. No card, no ads, no auto-renew.

Systematic research · Not investment advice · Hypothetical unless marked Live · Data: Yahoo Finance (15-min delayed), SEC EDGAR, House Clerk · Important disclosures · Contact desk@coteau.app

How it works Our promise Terms Privacy Data status Send feedback

Coteau 0.9 · Oct 21, 2026

VST

Chart

Ratings & dials

Analyst & Morningstar ratings

Health check

Key stats & company

What they do

Valuation & fundamentals

Discounted cash flow

Multiples vs Utilities

Backlog (remaining performance obligations)

Quality & financial health

Analysts

Annual history

Grades vs sector

Systematic Models

Earnings & events

News & catalysts

Research

Get the market emails

Get alerts on this phone

Welcome to SURVYR.

Send feedback

Important disclosures