SURVYR

XOM

ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation
$184.54
+$1.33 (0.73%)Oct 26 close
EnergyS&P 500 CompareTechnicals
Model valuationRoughly fairly valuedDCF base $203
1M3M6M1Y2Y
-7%+11%+28%+46%+64%Oct 2025Oct 2026Apr 202652w high $180.2652w low $112.51
XOMSPY
Wall St. Highest PT $206.00 (+11.6%) Wall St. Avg PT $179.41 (-2.8%)
$110$136$161$187$212POC $150Hi $206Avg $179
Underwater Drawdown %Max DD -20.1%Current 0.0%
0.0%-20.1%
Relative Strength vs SPY+50.9% vs SPYOutperforming
+66%0%-66%
1W
+$6.26 (3.51%)
1M
+$23.95 (14.91%)
3M
+$30.77 (20.01%)
6M
+$38.30 (26.19%)
YTD
+$66.57 (56.43%)
1Y
+$72.40 (64.56%)

Chart

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Ratings & dials

1m · 5m · 15m · 1h · 4h · 1D

Analyst & Morningstar ratings

Consensus · Targets · Morningstar
Wall Street analyst consensus
SellHoldStrong Buy
Buy
22 analysts · mean score 2.40
1 = Strong Buy · 5 = Sell
Wall Street consensus
Analyst price targets
Current price$184.54
Average target$179.41
−$5.13 (−2.8%) downsideaverage target vs current price
CurrentAverageMedian
Low$142.00
Median$179.41
High$206.00
12-month Wall Street target range

Third-party ratings, not SURVYR.'s views.

Health check

Quality
WeakAverageStrong
Average
Piotroski F-score 4 of 9
See the tests
  • ✓Positive net income
  • ✓Positive operating cash flow
  • ✗Return on assets improved
  • ✓Cash flow above net income
  • ✗Long-term debt / assets fell
  • ✗Current ratio improved
  • ✓No share dilution
  • ✗Gross margin improved
  • ✗Asset turnover improved

Computed by SURVYR. from the company's SEC filings (latest balance sheet Mar 31, 2026). Descriptive, not a forecast.

Key stats & company

Market value$732.3B
P/E (last 12 months)22.9
P/E (next 12 months, estimated)14.6
52-week range$112.51 – $180.26
Revenue growth (latest quarter vs a year ago)+44.1%
Dividend yield2.32%
Analyst consensusBuy (22)
Average analyst price target$179.41 (-3%)

What they do

ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation engages in the exploration and production of crude oil and natural gas in the United States, Canada, and internationally. The company operates through Upstream, Energy Products, Chemical Products, and Specialty Products segments. Its Upstream segment explores for and produces crude oil and natural gas.

Energy · Oil & Gas Integrated
Valuation and fundamentals

Valuation & fundamentals

Bottom line
Roughly fairly valued
Model read-out from the numbers below, not advice. Score +0 (DCF counts double).
•DCF (base case)above the price by 10%
•Forward P/E vs sector14.6x vs median 13.6x
•Piotroski F-score4/9
•Analyst target-3% (22 analysts)

Discounted cash flow

CyclicalValued on average-cycle margins
Bear
$110
-41%
growth 11% · disc. 10.2% · term. 2.0%
Base
$203
+10%
growth 19% · disc. 9.2% · term. 2.5%
Bull
$340
+84%
growth 23% · disc. 8.2% · term. 3.0%

Starting cash flow is mid-cycle: 6.8% average margin × current revenue = 22.6B (last 12 months: 18.8B at a 6% margin). On trailing cash flow the base case would be $168.

Reverse DCFfor context, not a signal
Today's price assumes free cash flow grows about 13% a year for 10 years.
Implied
+13%/yr
FCF, last 3 yrs
-26%/yr
FCF, last 5 yrs
n/a
Revenue, last 3 yrs
-7%/yr
Revenue, last 5 yrs
+13%/yr
Same inputs as the DCF above: mid-cycle free cash flow 22.6B, 9.2% discount rate, 2.5% growth after year 10, net debt and today's share count. Actual growth rates are compound annual rates from SEC annual filings through FY2025; "n/a" means too little history or a negative starting year.
Edit assumptions · recalculates instantly
Your value per share–

Free cash flow = operating cash flow − capital spending, trailing 12 months (TTM to 2026-03-31). Growth default: average of 3-year revenue CAGR and latest revenue growth, capped at 30%. Years 6–10 fade linearly to terminal growth. Discount rate = 4.25% risk-free assumption + beta 0.21 × 5% equity premium, kept within 7–13%. Bear: lower growth, +1 pt discount, 2% terminal. Bull: higher growth, −1 pt, 3%.

Multiples vs Energy

P/E (trailing)
sector median 18.1× · 62nd pct
 22.9×
pricier
Forward P/E
sector median 13.6× · 59th pct
 14.6×
pricier
EV / EBITDA
sector median 8.1×
 –
Price / sales
sector median 2.3× · 44th pct
 2.2×
cheaper
Price / book
sector median 1.9× · 77th pct
 2.9×
pricier
FCF yield
sector median 7.6% · 19th pct
 2.6%
pricier

Forward EPS $12.23 vs trailing $7.77 (+57% expected growth). Forward P/E uses analysts' next-12-month estimate.

Quality & financial health

Gross margin
–
Operating margin
–
FCF margin
5.6%
Net margin
7.6%
Return on equity
10.0%
Return on invested capital
–
Net debt / EBITDA
–
Current ratio
1.0×
Interest cover
–
Cash conversion (OCF/NI)
1.9×
Piotroski F-score 4/9 · last two fiscal years
✓ Positive net income✓ Positive operating cash flow✗ Return on assets improved✓ Cash flow above net income✗ Long-term debt / assets fell✗ Current ratio improved✓ No share dilution✗ Gross margin improved✗ Asset turnover improved

Analysts

Mean target
$179
-3%
Analysts
22
Buy
Range
$142–$206
low – high
● price · ◆ mean target

Annual history

FYRevenueNet incomeFree cash flow
2025$332.2B$28.8B$23.6B
2024$349.6B$33.7B$30.7B
2023$344.6B$36.0B$33.5B
2022$413.7B$55.7B$58.4B
2021$285.6B$23.0B$36.1B
2020$181.5B$-22.4B$-2.6B

From the company's 10-K filings via SEC XBRL. 3-year revenue CAGR -7.0%.

For information only · Important disclosures

Grades vs sector

Momentum
69th percentile in sector
B
12-1 return: +46.4%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Growth
65th percentile in sector
B
Revenue growth (YoY): +44.1%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Value
29th percentile in sector
D+
Forward E/P: 6.6% · EBITDA/EV: 8.8%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Profitability
44th percentile in sector
C
Profit margin: +9.1% · Return on equity: +12.6%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Revisions
Not enough data yet
–
EPS estimate change, 30 days (current FY): –
30-day change in analysts' current-year EPS estimate; graded across covered stocks.

Systematic Models

Not held by any of our 7 live models right now.

Quality Growth
Outside this model's universe or screens
 Momentum Top 15
ranked 70 of 499 · 12-month momentum 46.9%
 Momentum Blend
Not in the current book
 New Highs Growth
Outside this model's universe or screens
 SURVYR. Barbell Momentum & T-Bill Shield
Outside this model's universe or screens
 SURVYR. Physical AI Grid & Power
Outside this model's universe or screens
 SURVYR. Long Book
Not in the current book

Earnings & events

XOM earningsNext report in 3 days
Next report · quarter Sep 2026
Fri Oct 30, 2026Before the open
EPS consensus$4.03
Revenue consensus–
Last 4 quarters · EPS vs estimate
Jul 31, 2026$3.52est $3.63−3.0%Below estimates
May 1, 2026$2.09est $1.01+107.5%Above estimates
Jan 30, 2026$1.71est $1.69+1.1%Above estimates
Oct 31, 2025$1.88est $1.82+3.0%Above estimates

In line = within 1% of the estimate.

Source: Yahoo Finance · report time: Nasdaq earnings calendar · refreshed 2026-10-26 18:37:10 ET
24-1125-0125-0525-0825-1026-0126-0526-070.003.63
EstimateActual (beat)Actual (miss)

News & catalysts

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Stats refreshed 2026-10-26 18:37:10 ET from Yahoo Finance (yfinance). "–" means the data isn't available. Refresh now

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Systematic research · Not investment advice · Hypothetical unless marked Live · Data: Yahoo Finance (15-min delayed), SEC EDGAR, House Clerk · Important disclosures · Contact desk@coteau.app

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Coteau 0.9 · Oct 21, 2026