SURVYR

M&A & Arbitrage

Merger Spreads & Deal Odds

Live cash spread, implied closing probability and stage for pending takeovers.

Pending Cash Deals
10
Definitive agreements
Median Gross Spread
+4.5%
Current vs. cash offer
Median Annualized
11.7%/yr
To stated close window
Avg Implied Close
~87%
Market-implied odds
JCI ➔ Truelink Capital
Johnson Controls International · All-Cash Offer $–
+–% Spread
~85% Odds
Pre-deal $147.50 Now $151.92 Offer $–
✓ Announced ● HSR / Reg ○ Vote Close
Deal terms, break downside & regulatory hurdles⌄
Announced: 2026-10-27 Break downside: -2.9% (to $147.50)
Key hurdles: Target shareholder vote · U.S. antitrust (HSR) waiting period · Buyer financing (private-equity buyer)
SGRY ➔ HealthSpan Partners
Surgery Partners, Inc. · All-Cash Offer $–
+–% Spread
~85% Odds
Pre-deal $15.75 Now $23.20 Offer $–
✓ Announced ● HSR / Reg ○ Vote Close
Deal terms, break downside & regulatory hurdles⌄
Announced: 2026-10-26 Break downside: -32.1% (to $15.75)
Key hurdles: Target shareholder vote · U.S. antitrust (HSR) waiting period · Buyer financing (private-equity buyer)
BRZE ➔ Salesforce
Braze, Inc. · All-Cash Offer $47.50
+3.7% 2.9%/yr
>95% Odds
Pre-deal $30.04 Now $45.80 Offer $47.50
✓ Announced ● HSR / Reg ○ Vote Salesforce fiscal 2028 (Feb 2027 - Jan 2028)
Deal terms, break downside & regulatory hurdles⌄
Announced: 2026-10-20 Window: 461d left (Salesforce fiscal 2028 (Feb 2027 - Jan 2028)) Break downside: -34.4% (to $30.04)
Key hurdles: Target shareholder vote · U.S. antitrust (HSR) waiting period · Possible antitrust overlap review (strategic buyer)
CCC ➔ GTCR-led group incl. Elliott
CCC Intelligent Solutions Holdi · All-Cash Offer $7.75
+0.8% 2.0%/yr
~85% Odds
Pre-deal $7.64 Now $7.68 Offer $7.75
✓ Announced ● HSR / Reg ○ Vote Q1 2027
Deal terms, break downside & regulatory hurdles⌄
Announced: 2026-10-15 Window: 155d left (Q1 2027) Break downside: -0.6% (to $7.64)
Key hurdles: Target shareholder vote · U.S. antitrust (HSR) waiting period · Buyer financing (private-equity buyer)
SANG ➔ BRC Group Holdings
Sangoma Technologies Corporatio · All-Cash Offer $–
+–% Spread
~85% Odds
Pre-deal $3.55 Now $4.64 Offer $–
✓ Announced ● HSR / Reg ○ Vote Close
Deal terms, break downside & regulatory hurdles⌄
Announced: 2026-09-28 Break downside: -23.5% (to $3.55)
Key hurdles: Target shareholder vote · U.S. antitrust (HSR) waiting period · Possible antitrust overlap review (strategic buyer)
MG ➔ H.I.G. Capital
Mistras Group Inc · All-Cash Offer $20.35 · Go-Shop Active
+-0.4% Spread
~85% Odds
Pre-deal $19.84 Now $20.43 Offer $20.35
✓ Announced ● HSR / Reg ○ Vote Close
Deal terms, break downside & regulatory hurdles⌄
Announced: 2026-09-18 Break downside: -2.9% (to $19.84)
Key hurdles: Target shareholder vote · U.S. antitrust (HSR) waiting period · Buyer financing (private-equity buyer)
Go-shop: Ends Oct 27, 2026
HHS ➔ Star Equity Holdings
Harte Hanks, Inc. · All-Cash Offer $5.00
+23.2% Spread
~60% Odds
Pre-deal $2.81 Now $4.06 Offer $5.00
✓ Announced ● HSR / Reg ○ Vote Close
Deal terms, break downside & regulatory hurdles⌄
Announced: 2026-08-14 Break downside: -30.8% (to $2.81)
Key hurdles: Target shareholder vote · Possible antitrust overlap review (strategic buyer)
ARX ➔ Thoma Bravo
Accelerant Holdings · All-Cash Offer $20.25
+2.1% 3.1%/yr
>95% Odds
Pre-deal $13.61 Now $19.83 Offer $20.25
✓ Announced ● HSR / Reg ○ Vote First half of 2027
Deal terms, break downside & regulatory hurdles⌄
Announced: 2026-08-13 Window: 246d left (First half of 2027) Break downside: -31.4% (to $13.61)
Key hurdles: Target shareholder vote · U.S. antitrust (HSR) waiting period · State insurance regulators · Buyer financing (private-equity buyer)
HZO ➔ Safe Harbor Marinas (Blackstone Infrastructure)
MarineMax, Inc. (FL) · All-Cash Offer $53.00
+1.0% 5.9%/yr
>95% Odds
Pre-deal $35.68 Now $52.45 Offer $53.00
✓ Announced ✓ HSR / Reg ● Vote By end of 2026
Deal terms, break downside & regulatory hurdles⌄
Announced: 2026-08-10 Window: 65d left (By end of 2026) Break downside: -32.0% (to $35.68)
Key hurdles: Target shareholder vote · U.S. antitrust (HSR) waiting period · Buyer financing (private-equity buyer)
CBZ ➔ Grant Thornton Advisors
CBIZ, Inc. · All-Cash Offer $55.00
+0.4% 2.0%/yr
>95% Odds
Pre-deal $46.70 Now $54.80 Offer $55.00
✓ Announced ✓ HSR / Reg ● Vote Q4 2026
Deal terms, break downside & regulatory hurdles⌄
Announced: 2026-07-29 Window: 65d left (Q4 2026) Break downside: -14.8% (to $46.70)
Key hurdles: Target shareholder vote · U.S. antitrust (HSR) waiting period · Possible antitrust overlap review (strategic buyer)
How market-implied closing odds & annualized spreads work⌄

Implied closing odds: (Current price − Pre-deal price) ÷ (Offer discounted at 4%/yr − Pre-deal price), rounded to the nearest 5%. Assumes the stock reverts to its pre-announcement close if the deal breaks.

Annualized spread: Gross cash spread annualized to the end of the stated closing window. Research only; not investment advice. · Disclosures

SURVYR

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Systematic research · Not investment advice · Hypothetical unless marked Live · Data: Yahoo Finance (15-min delayed), SEC EDGAR, House Clerk · Important disclosures · Contact desk@coteau.app

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Coteau 0.9 · Oct 21, 2026