SURVYR

DINO

HF Sinclair Corporation
$114.21
−$11.04 (8.81%)Oct 27 close
EnergyS&P 400 CompareTechnicals
Model valuationLooks undervaluedDCF base $299
1M3M6M1Y2Y
-15%+24%+64%+104%+144%Oct 2025Oct 2026Apr 202652w high $129.3752w low $45.71
DINOSPY
Wall St. Highest PT $160.00 (+40.1%) Wall St. Avg PT $122.07 (+6.9%)
$45$75$105$135$165POC $54Hi $160Avg $122
Underwater Drawdown %Max DD -17.6%Current -10.9%
0.0%-17.6%
Relative Strength vs SPY+101.9% vs SPYOutperforming
+146%0%-146%
1W
−$11.10 (8.86%)
1M
+$7.39 (6.92%)
3M
+$25.46 (28.69%)
6M
+$52.30 (84.47%)
YTD
+$69.18 (153.66%)
1Y
+$61.20 (115.45%)

Chart

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Ratings & dials

1m · 5m · 15m · 1h · 4h · 1D

Analyst & Morningstar ratings

Consensus · Targets · Morningstar
Wall Street analyst consensus
SellHoldStrong Buy
Hold
16 analysts · mean score 2.56
1 = Strong Buy · 5 = Sell
Strong Buy531%
Buy16%
Hold850%
Underperform00%
Sell212%
Wall Street consensus · as of Oct 21, 2026
Analyst price targets
Current price$114.21
Average target$122.07
+$7.86 (+6.9%) upsideaverage target vs current price
CurrentAverageMedian
Low$73.00
Median$122.00
High$160.00
12-month Wall Street target range · as of Oct 21, 2026

Third-party ratings, not SURVYR.'s views.

Health check

Financial health
DistressGrey zoneSafe
Safe zone
Altman Z-score 4.3
Above 2.99 is the safe zone, below 1.81 the distress zone.
Quality
WeakAverageStrong
Average
Piotroski F-score 6 of 9
See the tests
  • ✓Positive net income
  • ✓Positive operating cash flow
  • ✓Return on assets improved
  • ✓Cash flow above net income
  • ✗Long-term debt / assets fell
  • ✓Current ratio improved
  • ✓No share dilution
  • ✗Gross margin improved
  • ✗Asset turnover improved

Computed by SURVYR. from the company's SEC filings (latest balance sheet Jun 30, 2026). Descriptive, not a forecast.

Key stats & company

Market value$21.6B
P/E (last 12 months)11.6
P/E (next 12 months, estimated)8.1
52-week range$45.71 – $129.37
Revenue growth (latest quarter vs a year ago)+53.2%
Dividend yield1.73%
Analyst consensusHold (15)
Average analyst price target$122.07 (+7%)

What they do

HF Sinclair Corporation operates as an independent energy company in the United States. It operates through five segments: Refining, Renewables, Marketing, Lubricants & Specialties, and Midstream. The company produces and markets gasoline, diesel fuel, jet fuel, renewable diesel, specialty lubricant products, specialty chemicals, commodity and modified asphalt products, and others.

Energy · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Valuation and fundamentals

Valuation & fundamentals

Bottom line
Looks undervalued
Model read-out from the numbers below, not advice. Score +3 (DCF counts double).
▲DCF (base case)above the price by 162%
▲Forward P/E vs sector8.1x vs median 13.6x
•Piotroski F-score6/9
▲Altman Z4.3 (safe)
▲Net debt / EBITDA0.1x
•Analyst target+7% (15 analysts)

Discounted cash flow

CyclicalValued on average-cycle margins
Bear
$146
+28%
growth 13% · disc. 8.8% · term. 2.0%
Base
$299
+162%
growth 21% · disc. 7.8% · term. 2.5%
Bull
$563
+393%
growth 26% · disc. 6.8% · term. 3.0%

Starting cash flow is mid-cycle: 3.3% average margin × current revenue = 1.0B (last 12 months: 2.3B at a 7% margin). On trailing cash flow the base case would be $671.

Reverse DCFfor context, not a signal
Today's price assumes free cash flow grows about 4% a year for 10 years.
Implied
+4%/yr
FCF, last 3 yrs
-36%/yr
FCF, last 5 yrs
+36%/yr
Revenue, last 3 yrs
-11%/yr
Revenue, last 5 yrs
+19%/yr
Same inputs as the DCF above: mid-cycle free cash flow 1.0B, 7.8% discount rate, 2.5% growth after year 10, net debt and today's share count. Actual growth rates are compound annual rates from SEC annual filings through FY2025; "n/a" means too little history or a negative starting year.
Edit assumptions · recalculates instantly
Your value per share–

Free cash flow = operating cash flow − capital spending, trailing 12 months (TTM to 2026-06-30). Growth default: average of 3-year revenue CAGR and latest revenue growth, capped at 30%. Years 6–10 fade linearly to terminal growth. Discount rate = 4.25% risk-free assumption + beta 0.71 × 5% equity premium, kept within 7–13%. Bear: lower growth, +1 pt discount, 2% terminal. Bull: higher growth, −1 pt, 3%.

Multiples vs Energy

P/E (trailing)
sector median 18.1× · 28th pct
 11.6×
cheaper
Forward P/E
sector median 13.6× · 17th pct
 8.1×
cheaper
EV / EBITDA
sector median 8.1× · 30th pct
 6.3×
cheaper
Price / sales
sector median 2.3× · 6th pct
 0.7×
cheaper
Price / book
sector median 1.9× · 54th pct
 2.1×
pricier
FCF yield
sector median 7.6% · 66th pct
 10.7%
cheaper

Forward EPS $14.97 vs trailing $10.50 (+43% expected growth). Forward P/E uses analysts' next-12-month estimate.

Quality & financial health

Gross margin
18.0%
Operating margin
8.3%
FCF margin
7.4%
Net margin
6.1%
Return on equity
18.6%
Return on invested capital
18.4%
Net debt / EBITDA
0.1×
Current ratio
2.0×
Interest cover
14.7×
Cash conversion (OCF/NI)
1.5×
Piotroski F-score 6/9 · last two fiscal years
✓ Positive net income✓ Positive operating cash flow✓ Return on assets improved✓ Cash flow above net income✗ Long-term debt / assets fell✓ Current ratio improved✓ No share dilution✗ Gross margin improved✗ Asset turnover improved

Altman Z-score 4.3 (safe zone; above 3.0 = safe, below 1.8 = distress). Not meaningful for banks and insurers.

Analysts

Mean target
$122
+7%
Analysts
15
Hold
Range
$73–$160
low – high
● price · ◆ mean target

Annual history

FYRevenueNet incomeFree cash flow
2025$26.9B$579.0M$866.0M
2024$28.6B$177.0M$640.0M
2023$32.0B$1.6B$1.9B
2022$38.2B$2.9B$3.3B
2021$18.4B$558.3M$-318.4M
2020$11.2B$-601.4M$187.1M

From the company's 10-K filings via SEC XBRL. 3-year revenue CAGR -11.1%.

For information only · Important disclosures

Grades vs sector

Momentum
96th percentile in sector
A+
12-1 return: +114.8%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Growth
76th percentile in sector
B+
Revenue growth (YoY): +53.2%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Value
68th percentile in sector
B
Forward E/P: 11.6% · EBITDA/EV: 13.7%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Profitability
49th percentile in sector
C+
Profit margin: +6.1% · Return on equity: +19.5%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Revisions
Not enough data yet
–
EPS estimate change, 30 days (current FY): –
30-day change in analysts' current-year EPS estimate; graded across covered stocks.

Systematic Models

Held by 1 of 7 live models: New Highs Growth.

New Highs Growth
4.0% of the book · ranked 17 of 589
 HeldQuality Growth
Outside this model's universe or screens
 Momentum Top 15
Outside this model's universe or screens
 Momentum Blend
Not in the current book
 SURVYR. Barbell Momentum & T-Bill Shield
Outside this model's universe or screens
 SURVYR. Physical AI Grid & Power
Outside this model's universe or screens
 SURVYR. Long Book
Not in the current book
Why it's in the New Highs Growth #17 of 589

Qualified on Energy & Power, -8% from 52-week high, revenue +53% y/y, 12-1 momentum +100%. Ranked 17th of 589 at the 2026-09-30 rebalance.

What would knock it out: Drops out if it falls outside the top 25 at the next rebalance (Oct 30). In the latest preview (2026-10-26) it ranks 6th.

Earnings & events

DINO earningsReports tomorrow
Next report · quarter Sep 2026
Wed Oct 28, 2026Before the open
EPS consensus$7.81
Revenue consensus–
Last 4 quarters · EPS vs estimate
Jul 28, 2026$5.31est $4.49+18.3%Above estimates
May 1, 2026$0.69est -$0.05+1411.0%Above estimates
Feb 18, 2026$1.20est $0.45+165.2%Above estimates
Oct 30, 2025$2.44est $1.86+30.9%Above estimates

In line = within 1% of the estimate.

Source: Yahoo Finance · report time: Nasdaq earnings calendar · refreshed 2026-10-26 18:43:08 ET
24-1025-0225-0525-0725-1026-0226-0526-07-1.025.31
EstimateActual (beat)Actual (miss)

News & catalysts

More news
DINO reports earnings tomorrow, before the open
Nasdaq earnings calendar · 18m ago
SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (XOP) Adds APA and Murphy Oil on Friday
GuruFocus.com · 9h ago
State Street SPDR S&P Oil & Gas E&P (XOP) Adds MPC and DINO on Thursday
GuruFocus.com · Oct 26
HF Sinclair Q3 Earnings Ahead: What's in Store for the Stock?
Zacks · Oct 23
Valero Energy Q3 Earnings Top Estimates on Refining Strength
Zacks · Oct 22
Insider trades
Myers Franklin
Director, CEO · 2026-08-11
Buy
$1.3M
Kunneman Dale
SVP and CHRO · 2026-08-05
Sell
$755.9K
None
None · None
Sell
–
None
None · None
Sell
–
None
None · None
Sell
–
None
None · None
Sell
–

Stats refreshed 2026-10-26 18:43:08 ET from Yahoo Finance (yfinance). "–" means the data isn't available. Refresh now

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Systematic research · Not investment advice · Hypothetical unless marked Live · Data: Yahoo Finance (15-min delayed), SEC EDGAR, House Clerk · Important disclosures · Contact desk@coteau.app

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Coteau 0.9 · Oct 21, 2026